Fintron Hits Monte Carlo - A live trial

[fintron]

Back To Basics Backing win only and each-way isn't working for me at the minute so I'm looking to go back to place only betting to try bring about some personal improvement. I had a little go with this in my AW thread over the winter and the results were quite promising, the first set of selections produced 104.4 pts profit (+49 % ROI) but the second set didn't go quite as well after I adjusted the staking plan. In the end, the place only bets as a whole showed +51.37 pts profit (+12 % ROI), but I then closed the thread ahead of the flat season. The link to it is here .. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/fintrons-aw-thread-74339/index16.html ... results are around pages 15-16. Looking back with the benefit of hindsight I think the reason the second set of selections performed below par was because I got greedy. I saw that things were going well and upped stakes outside of the staking plan to try cash in whilst things were going well, but it backfired. I also took a few risks backing horses to place at quite high odds in the early stages of the sequence to try get ahead early, and the thing I learned is that the order of the winners is very important and you really need to get off to a winning start, to not only give you confidence, but to buffer against the inevitable losers later on in the sequence. Background Just to refresh, the Reverse Labouchere, or Monte Carlo staking plan as it is otherwise known, is a staking plan that has been in betting circles for a while. If I remember correctly, it was devised by some chap that used it when playing roulette in casinos. He had a great deal of success with it, backing red or black at short odds, and apparently cleaned out the casinos. It is a staking plan that is designed for short odds selections that will yield long sequences of winners. Stakes are upped in line with a strict regime in the event of a winner (not out of line with my manual stakes as before), to capitalise in winning runs whilst they are lowered after a loser, to avoid quick wiping out of profits. A 'check out' point is commonly advised whereby a punter sets him/herself a pre-determined profit target, and once that is reached, cashes out all profit and starts a new line. A working Example -how to determine the stake First of all you pick a sequence of numbers as your starting stake range. I will pick 1-7 as this worked for me before. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 To work out the first stake you add the two numbers on each end of the line... 1 + 7 = 8 pts for the first selection. If that bet wins, you add the winning stake to the right end of the line.... i.e. 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 If that bet loses you cross off the two numbers at each end of the line i.e. 2,3,4,5,6 To work out the stake for the next bet you simply alter the line in either of the above two ways, and add the new end numbers on the end of the line, (i.e. 1+8= 9 pts if the first bet wins, 2+6 = 8 pts if the first bet had lost). If you hit a losing run and end up wiping all the numbers off a line, you start a new one. As you hit winners, the stakes can get quite high and quickly escalate, so for this reason when you reach a pre-determined level of profit, you cash out that profit, and start a new line once more. Hopefully that explains all the numbers that are set to follow! Finally, it is worth reiterating that this is a staking plan that only works with short odds selections that will yield lots of winners (just incase anyone else fancies applying it themselves). As a result I think it may have application for place betting. When I did this before I did find, at the odds I was selection, I was better off staking in this way as opposed to betting to level stakes. That may not be the case with these selections now, which are primarily from turf (some AW) but this is a live trial and we will see. I will be backing these but to absolute minimum stakes, more to make myself aware of R4's and the like if anything. If it shows promise then I will start to back properly again. Enough of the jargon...time to find a selection......target 'check out point 1' is 100 pts.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron Hits Monte Carlo - A live trial 3.10 Lingfield The withdrawl of Tara's Garden means just nine go to post here so we are looking at potentially three places paid for the place. There looks to be a lack of pace on the cards with perhaps only Mick's Dancer and Bramalea willing to take them along, but even then, both of those runners would be happier with alternative tactics - Mick's Dancer seems to track the leaders whilst Bramalea is versatile and has form from racing all across the field. With that in mind, I think it could pay to race prominently, and Mick's Dancer appeals most. He is closely matched with Bramalea on recent Bath running when finishing a length infront of that rival and although he is 3 lbs worse off here, I think overall he has a more consistent profile. On his last run Mick's Dancer was upped in class and was lowest rated in a class 4 handicap at Bath. Most of those rivals would be rated too high for entry in this 0-70 class 5 event so firstly I think he could improve upon his sixth placed effort that day now dropped in grade. Secondly, that Windsor race was the first time he has really taken up the running and tried to set the pace, and perhaps connections will have instucted him to sit further back in the field for this one today. He is only 2 lbs higher than his latest win at Wolverhampton (Oct' 08) and has placed form off this sort of mark on the all-weather and indeed on the turf at Bath last month off only 3 lb lower. After 13 starts, this 4 yo may have more to offer, hopefully he can manage a place here. 8 pts matched at 2.08 (Betfair).