Goodwood 20/5/09

[fintron]

4.00 Goodwood A 2m class 4 (0-80) handicap here worth £4,857 to the winner. Official Ratings - today, highest ever winning, last winning (grade of win bracketed) Cleaver 80. H: 75(5) L: 75(5) Kayf Aramis 77. H: 71(4) L: 71(4) American Spin 76. H: - L: - Takafu 75. H: 81(4) L: 81(4) Look To This Day 75. 70(5) L: 70(5) Ned Ludd 70. H: - L: - Epsom Salts 70. H:60(5) L: 58(5) Isabelonabicycle 69. H: 65(5) L: 65(5) Sweetheart 65. H: - L: - Bold Adventure 62. H: 61(5) L: 61(5) Calculating 55. H: 82(2) L: 60(5) Form Comments Cleaver - 5 lbs higher than last win at Newbury over shorter but showed he gets further when a decent third over this trip at that track last time out on his reappearance. All of best form has come on soft. Kayf Aramis - is officially 5 lbs well in running under a 6 lb penalty after routing the field in impressive fashion at York last week. That win showed he doesn't necessarily need cut in the ground to act, although Jamie Spencer up for this one. American Spin - returns from a 95-day break but an unexposed gelding that remains open to considerable improvement off his current mark of 76 and undoubtedly has more to offer. He was third on his debut in a decent Newmarket maiden on his debut when with Brian Meehan, narrowly behind Napper Tandy, and injuries presumably kept him off the track for the next two years. However, he bounced to form with a win in a maiden on his first start for his current yard at Kempton in January. Was allocated an initial handicap rating of 75 thereafter and showed up well at Wolverhampton when shaping as if he would get further than a mile and a half. He was fourth behind War of the Roses in a competitive race last time out when again staying on, and the combination of a 1 lb drop in his rating, coupled with this extra yardage, entitles him to have a super chance here. Takafu - has dropped 6 lbs below his last winning mark and although he probably gets this trip, he returns from a 578-day break and is entitled to need the run. Look To This Day - only five pounds above his last winning mark and open to more improvement after only seven starts. She is entitled to come on from a recent run at Warwick when weakening inside the final furlong but hinted at Bath last August she would get further. Ned Ludd - yet to win a flat race although does have a couple of hurdles races to his name. Had placed form off higher marks on the flat previously, so could potentially be well treated on return from the NH scene. Epsom Salts - showed a consistent level of form on the all-weather over the winter and will strip fitter for recent outing at Folkestone when behind Isabelonabicycle. Is 12 lbs above last win, although kept going close off similar sort of marks and wouldn't be a great surprise to see him win after that recent pipeopener. Isabelonabicycle - off the mark at the first time of asking in handicaps off 4 lb lower at Folkestone in April when beating several other potential improvers. Failed to follow up off this mark at Warwick, latest, but that run best ignored with the race time recorded over ten seconds below standard. After only five runs she remains unexposed and could have more to offer. Sweetheart - another without a flat win to his name but has scored over hurdles. Has placed on the flat at Bath off 2 lb higher mark in the past so not without hope but others appeal more. Bold Adventure - declining mark means he is now just 1 lb higher than win at Wolverhampton in March but has a little to prove off the back of recent efforts and up against several unexposed types now that could be better treated. Calculating - won off 83 at Kempton last year but fortunes nosedived since and was down to 60 when winning at Southwell this year. Unseated rider at Folkestone in a race won by Isabelonabicycle but bounced back with a fair third over shorter last time out at Wolverhampton. May find a few too good again. Verdict A decent race in prospect here and Kayr Aramis is sure to be popular after an emphatic win at York last time out. However, this race looks stronger and with Jamie Spencer booked I simply cannot back this at the likely price so will side with the unexposed pair of American Spin and Isabelonabicycle to get the better of him, and Epsom Salts. RPF 16/1 and 10/1 respectively.

[fintron]

Re: Goodwood 20/5/09 American Spin is 25/1 and Isabelonabicycle is 14/1, both with Bet 365 this morning, execeptional value on both counts IMO. No matter how good the favourite looks, bankers do get beaten in handicaps and 4/6 represents no value whatsoever in my opinion. I make Isabelonabiycle a 8/1 shot and American Spin a 12/1 chance :unsure Think Kayf Aramis deserves to be an even money horse, but with Spencer on, jeez, anything could happen.