Newbury - Sat 16/5/09

[fintron]

2.40 Newbury - Lockinge The big race of the day here and i'm gonna oppose the favourites and put up a rather ambitious selection, Major Cadeaux. Although he is Richard Hannon's second string, Ballydoyle have shown over the past week with Golden Stream and Black Bear Island that jockey bookings mean nothing. Plus, if you wanted anyone on your second string, you wouldn't complain if it was Ryan Moore. Beaten by Good Ba Ba in The Hong Kong Mile when last seen, Major Cadeuax is priced up as a 20/1 shot, and even though he hasn't got Group 1 winning form to his name, he has won two G3's and a G2 to date, which is more than some of these, which do not look genuine pattern class. He has winning course form, gets a mile (including on soft ground as illustrated on his debut) and the yard are in form here with three winners yesterday. They aimed to send him for this last year, and for one reason or another he never made it. However, 12 months on, he now has his entry. Looking over the historical trends for this race it soon becomes evident that horses without recent placed form cannot be discounted, indeed only one of the last ten winners of this race was successful last time out, and so no runner can be dismissed lighly on the basis of form figures. If he was to win at 20/1 he would be the biggest priced winner of the decade (all under 9/1 previously) but he has Group winning form, as so many of the previous winners had, and only a small stake is needed for an interest. 20/1 VC Bet

[Gingertipster]

Re: Newbury - Sat 16/5/09 I agree Fintron, Major Cadeaux is over priced. I make him a 6% 16/1 shot and is available at 28/1 on Batfair right now. Think it is because he is second string to the favourite. It is possible he could go from the front, dictating a slow pace, like he did to win the Greenham here. There are no out and out front runners in the field and a slow pace, favouring prominent runners may inssue. Equally effective if held up, goes well on a soft surface, and if there is a slow pace has 7f speed too. Pressing and Twice Over might have to go on as they'd be disadvantaged by a sprint. The latter may try to bring them to the stand rail to negate his tendancy to hang. My other bets are 6.8/1 (now 6/1) Aqlaam. Worth taking the chance on the ground at the price. I make him an 18% 9/2 shot. And saved on Pressing 11/1, who if it's a fast run race, stays much further and acts well on soft. I make him a 10% 9/1 shot. My Prices to beat for soft ground. Alexandros 16/1, Aqlaam 9/2, Atlantic Sport 100/1, Dream Eater 20/1, Major Cadeaux 16/1, Paco Boy 7/4, Pressing 9/1, Tariq 40/1, Twice Over 18/1, Virtual 8/1, Winker Watson 400/1. Was a bit miffed as I was aware Virtual has been 14/1 today, and thought it was going to be my main bet. But the price has colapsed. So can't back it. Ginge