Fontwell 13/05

[stewartd14]

Selections in here :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Fontwell 13/05 FONTWELL 2.30 Chunky Lad 2.5 pts ew @ 14/1 Bet365 (BOG) Two runners are clear on the ratings here, Chunky Lad and Tchico Polios. On hurdles ratings, Cavallini would be in with a shout but he has never run over fences. Tchico Polios ran an excellent 84 on his chasing debut, and that should see him take this however Chunky Lad managed to fathom a 73. He also managed to record a mark of 78 when winning his seller. He looks to be a nice ew bet but whether he can get close to the jolly, I'm not so sure. 3.00 Mistified 5 pts ew @ 7/1 Betfred Another of these races where 3 runners come out clear on the ratings, Fishguard Filly, Stance and Mistified. However, Mistified is more than 3 times the price of the first 2 mentioned. He ran a lifetime best speed figure last time (77) when runner up at Plumpton and if he can reproduce that he should go close today. Stance is a big danger having run an 81 over course and distance last time out but Fishguard Filly has only managed a top rating of 69, and she looks a nice lay to me. 4.10 Dantari 5 pts ew @ 9/1 VCBet Dantari is selected on ratings here having produced his lifetime best (80) when winning here 3 starts ago over 1 furlong shorter. He has subsequently run 2 poorer races in better class contests, but I think he struggled with a combination of the faster speed they go and the bigger fields. Back in a lower race today, he should find things happening that step slower that he needs to reproduce that 80 figure he ran 3 runs ago. King Ar Aghaid has similar ratings to his name, but at the prices Dantari looks better value. Evan Williams has a good record at the track as well. 4.45 Probably my best bet of the day here: Lahinch Lad 7.5 pts ew @ 8/1 Stan James (BOG) On form, Lahinch Lad doesnt look to have that much of a chance here, but with a decent best speed rating and an excellent average, I can find reasons to back him. In his last 3 runs over fences, he has dropped 10 lbs from a rating of 96 down to a rating of 86. However, he last won when he was rated 94 when he ran a 78 rating over this distance. Recently, as he has dropped down the weights, he has actually run ratings of 65-70-74. The last of which seems to indicate to me that he is coming back to his best, and he is ready to repeat that 78 rating. If he was to re-run a 74, I expect he would be in the top 4 today, but if he can produce that 78, he would likely take this race. The claimer on board takes extra weight off and the horse stays the trip. 8/1 in places is tasty.