AFL Round 8

[ozgamer]

Any early thoughts for this round? Alot of shorties, 6 in fact at $1.35 or less with Centrebet and they should all get across the line. Edit: Yeh I know we all said the same about Carlton, Port and Hawks last week but I think there's a much stronger case for this week's candidates :) 5 home games (3 interstate + Geelong + Saints) and the Doggies at the G. I'd never thought we'd see Freo as favs in this game but here we are. Hawks are very vulnerable right now (expecting Hodge and Bateman to miss) though not taking silly odds about Freo. Schammer avoiding suspension tips the balance just in Freo's favour. Melb have been competitive (as well as their opposition being inept at scoring goals) beating the line in their last 4; 3 of them being at the MCG. Expect the Doggies to win comfortably, but not keen on taking them at the line. Geelong-Nth game will be more about how competitive Nth will be. Geelong to win of course. Brisbane too hard to beat at the GABBA. Hard to make a case for the Crows. The odds are right I feel. Not expecting alot of scoring so looking at a generous under total here despite the Crows leaky defence. If you ignore the Saints game, Eagles have been competitive i/state but I'm betting that ball magnets, Kerr and Priddis won't play as well as Hunter and their recent poor conversion rate isn't helping either (not happy with the way they finished their game vs Melb - very negative) so expecting the Swans (who have won and beaten the line 7 out of last 10 at ANZ) to win but the -22.5 line is a bit long I feel. Maybe $1.28 as a banker for multis? Will be interested to see if Woosha keeps the kids or brings back a bit of experience. Port's yoyo form suggests they will bounce back and win big at home vs the Tigers. The way they finished the game vs Roos was encouraging. Port at the -26.5 line ($1.91) here is likely to be my only bet. According to the Pies' form (LWLWLWL) they will win here. This is a game (and it's their home game as well) they CAN win against a team who are a bit above themselves atm. They will get back Anthony. They will lose 2 talls, Cloke and Fraser; and the smalls, Swan, Medhurst, Davis and Thomas are all queries atm. Rocca is almost due a big game, just needs to hold his marks. I'll wait til the sides are announced but Carlton (who have no excuses about their form) at $1.57 is a bit rich while looking to do better than $2.40 about the Pies. The Bombers have done well to get to 4-3 but they will get found out here (hark back to Rnd 2, 2008, vs Geelong) by a team that isn't vulnerable and has the skill and personnel to answer any challenge. Saints to win easy but no play on the line.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 8 Have to agree 100% with everything you've just said my good 'gamer. :ok The only line my numbers suggest is Sydney -24.5 or better...which is a shame, because over the weekend I was looking forward to seeing the odds for WC, who have been 'unlucky' (:unsure) not to have beaten Hawthorn, Freo and Melbourne by a million... Don't trust Sydney to score tho...have only had 24+ shots one time all season...did happen to be at this ground tho... Anyway, bottom line is no side bets for me at all this week...will be particularly keen on some totals tho...esp. the one that you mentioned. :cheers