pinkisntwell Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 Let's take a look at a typical horse racing screen a few moments before the off: Assuming that the exchange prices are very efficient (as they normally are in betfair), isn't there some value of backing the SP whenever it's projected to be over the exchange price and laying it whenever it's below? Am I missing something here? I know these are projections and are bound to be different than the real prices one will get, but surely they'll be close enough. It can't be this easy, someone bring me back to order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value Aren't you making a timing error. You say use the SP as a marker and back if the available price is above. But your assumption of the SP being a valid market is based on a completed SP at the OFF, you would be placing a bet before that. Otherwise where would you get the time to place the completing Lay bet. So the SP when placing the bet perceived to have value is not the same one at the OFF which is what your are basing this on. You have no way of knowing how the prices and therefore SP will evolve over time. It is quite possible that you see an SP of 4.00 with an available price of 4.2 only to then see both the price and SP rise to 5.00 Easily paper traded for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value hang on, that's a different thing innit :wall Assuming that the exchange prices are very efficient (as they normally are in betfair), isn't there some value of backing the SP whenever it's projected to be over the exchange price and laying it whenever it's below? You are assuming that the SP will then follow the market in order to arrive at it's true position which you assume to be as close to the "true price" as it gets. Only then will there be value in the higher price at which you would back it. SP is 4.00 market is 3.80 so you back the SP at 4.00 which would have value IF the price then drops to below 4.00 at the actual OFF which could be only seconds after you place your bet. You have no guarantee the SP will actually do that, it could just as easily rise to above 4.00 which would mean following your reasoning though you've back with negative value. However it's all pointless as in either case as you back the SP the price will change with the market. So the moment of backing the SP and whatever prices there are in the market at that time makes no difference whatsoever. You still end up with a bet at SP whatever that becomes at the OFF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value Did you mean back the available price when it's higher than the projected SP ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkisntwell Posted May 13, 2009 Author Share Posted May 13, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value The whole point is that the projected SP that betfair gives will be close enough to the real SP you'll get. If that's true, we're golden. Otherwise, back to the drawing board. I'll write down all betfair SP's for today (as they're announced after the off) and see how they compare with the projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 13, 2009 Share Posted May 13, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value But the projected SP changes all the time, there's no way of telling at what price it will end up. So if you look at an SP before the OFF there's no way of telling if there is value in it as you just don't know where it'll end up at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punterbg Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value I'm sorry for writting off-topic, but could you please tell where can I find statistics for Betfair SPs on already finished races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcadia00 Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value I'm sorry for writting off-topic' date=' but could you please tell where can I find statistics for Betfair SPs on already finished races.[/quote'] try this http://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/SP_history.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punterbg Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: Betfair SP value thanks for the link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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