KThom Posted May 8, 2009 Share Posted May 8, 2009 Hi all, been working and developing a system for a few weeks now and its nearing completion. Would just like to gauge a few thoughts on what you think is a good return points wise (profit divided by amount of level stake) for a league over the course of a season? I have tested my strategies over many leagues, and as far back as 2001 - I seem to average around 700 points profit a season (based on a level stake of 100 points). This is the equvilent of backing a 7/1 shot for each division (of course some divisions are higher and some lower). It just seems a little low for a 30-40 games season. Anyone want to share their realistic forecasts or expectations from their or any other systems? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted May 8, 2009 Share Posted May 8, 2009 Re: Points per season? As a rule of thumb any Return on Investment % (ROI) in double figures is a good return. ROI is easily calculated as ........ Profit / Total amount staked. So in your example of 30 bets in a season gives ....... 700 / 3000 = 2.33% ROI. You also have to factor in betfair commission (assuming you use them). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted May 9, 2009 Author Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: Points per season? Hi kanga, thanks for your response Your example is a slightly different calculation to what I was referring too. I think you have calculated the yield, am I right? Incidentally using your calculation shouldn't it be 23.3%? My yield returns are between 6 an 20% as this varies on odds/liability taken I am trying to gauge a decent return figure of the level stake (for lays) and not your liability over a season Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted May 9, 2009 Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: Points per season? Doh ! ... I put the decimal point in the wrong place yes it should have been 23.33% which is a very good return. Yield or ROI .. is the usual yardstick for measuring profitability backing or laying. Can I ask why you want to measure against level stakes for lays - as your bank needs to allow for the liability / turnover ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted May 9, 2009 Author Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: Points per season? I do use the yield figure also for measuring progress, but I find it doesn't give a true represent of profitability The reason is the bank becomes recycled every week - I mean you are using the SAME bank over and over so your total liability is a regenerated figure. If your bank is 2,000 but your end of season liability was 32,000 it means that 2,000 was used 16 times - not that you need 32,000 to begin By measuring how many times of the level stake I win over the season I wanted to see an achievable figure Hope I explain my reason properly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted May 9, 2009 Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: Points per season? Yes but it's the same for backing at level stakes .... at the end of the year the total staked is usually more than the bank you started with. But if you want to calculate it backwards you can say that 15% yield is a good return so therefore at the end of the year this would make me ..... X points at level stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trevman Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Points per season? By measuring how many times of the level stake I win over the season I wanted to see an achievable figure are you referring to "end of year balance / start of year balance", eg £14000 / £2000 = 7 x 100 = 700% return however a return is a return - how you view it is upto you, you may want to beat the bank and try to exceed the interest they would give you on the amount you started with ie £2000 x 5%, or you may consider your time spent x minimum wage, and try to exceed that to gauge if your time is well spent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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