True odds and optimal staking plan

[Dices]

Hi everyone.

Lets suppose that we have found a way of correctly calculating the true odds – chance of a selection to come true, ie the true chance of a horse to win is found 25% (3/1 or 4.0 odds) and is available at BF at odds of 6/1 (7.0).

In a second example the true chance is 12.5% (7/1 or 8.0) and is available at odds of 20/1 (21.0).

Calculating the theoretical profit for each of these two cases we get:

• 6x0.25 = 1.5 points profit per bet

• 20x0.125 = 2.5 points profit per bet

Obviously the second bet offers more “value” but it has smaller strike rate so it suffers from longer loosing runs.

My question:

How can we implement in our staking plan the true chance of every bet so we will have a “smoother” behavior of our system? Is there a mathematical formula for calculating the stake that depends on the % chance?

Number of bets at every case will be important for the staking plan and the way will be by increasing the stake at the first case and decreasing it at the second case but is there a specific formula?

Any ideas, thoughts?

[muppet77]

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