Dices Posted April 30, 2009 Share Posted April 30, 2009 Hi everyone. Lets suppose that we have found a way of correctly calculating the true odds – chance of a selection to come true, ie the true chance of a horse to win is found 25% (3/1 or 4.0 odds) and is available at BF at odds of 6/1 (7.0). In a second example the true chance is 12.5% (7/1 or 8.0) and is available at odds of 20/1 (21.0). Calculating the theoretical profit for each of these two cases we get: 6x0.25 = 1.5 points profit per bet 20x0.125 = 2.5 points profit per bet Obviously the second bet offers more “value†but it has smaller strike rate so it suffers from longer loosing runs. My question: How can we implement in our staking plan the true chance of every bet so we will have a “smoother†behavior of our system? Is there a mathematical formula for calculating the stake that depends on the % chance? Number of bets at every case will be important for the staking plan and the way will be by increasing the stake at the first case and decreasing it at the second case but is there a specific formula? Any ideas, thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted April 30, 2009 Share Posted April 30, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Kelly staking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted April 30, 2009 Author Share Posted April 30, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Kelly staking? ((odds x estimation) - 1) / (odds - 1) = (result) x 100 Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted May 8, 2009 Share Posted May 8, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Could you not just stake an amount proportional to the true probability you have calculated ? So in your first example you calculated the probabilty to be 25% - you could stake 25% of any chosen amount and in your second example 12.5%. Your first example has twice the probability of winning of the second example and the stake amounts reflect this. Assuming your probabilities are accurate it will even things out nicely ...... It's simple and is independant of the odds achieved (which is where your value/profit is made) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Dices came across this and thought of your question. It's a variation of kelly that may suit your system better ? http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/Nov/TheAnsellStakingPlan/tabid/851/Default.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted May 30, 2009 Author Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan http://www.p2pbetting.com/Articles/2005/Nov/TheAnsellStakingPlan/tabid/851/Default.aspx A MUCH better approach than Kelly's. Thanks Kanga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan A MUCH better approach than Kelly's. Thanks Kanga I may be totally thick here, but I do not follow the Ansell example in the attached. Can you explain? (% Expectation - 100) * true probabilty / 5 (risk factor) Excepectation is true probability * odds including stake. So for a 3/1 true proability and 8/1 best odds, how does this determine the sum 25 * 9 = 225. And then how does this divided by the risk factor give 6.25%? :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Kthom, The article isn't the easiest to follow but i'll try to explain. 3/1 expressed as a true probability = a 25% chance the formula for this is 1 / (odds+1) .... to get the % you need to multiply by 100 the 9 in the formula is the 8/1 odds expressed as a decimal. BUT this is only the first part of the equation. (% Expectation - 100 ) x True Probability 5 (Average Risk Factor) Expectation = true probability x odds including stake (for 3/1 chance offered at 8/1 = 25 x 9 = 225) So we have (225-100) x 0.25 5 = 6.25% Hope that makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: True odds and optimal staking plan Hi kanga, thanks very much - perfectly explained Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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