The High Price Of Success

[billy the punter]

Taken from my blog... The High Price Of Success There are many national hunt races that take plenty from their parcipants, none more so than the Whitbread Gold Cup (now Bet365 Gold Cup). Many winners of the RSA Chase, Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National regress thereafter but the Whitbread seems to halt progression more than any of those. Looking back at previous winner's form after winning the Sandown finale makes for depressing reading... Monkerhostin - 5725 Hot Weld - PP Lacdoudal - 64430303863 Jack High - 3945351U9700472F46 Puntal - 68605527P87303P Ad Hoc - 66F540F Bounce Back - 0P63PF0U058P94 Ad Hoc - 753B451233U166F540F Beau - 3P42U56279U0 Eulogy - U Call It A Day - 2P443233FP569637 Harwell Lad - 52PP4 Ad Hoc fared best of those win two wins (once when regaining this) and a decent Grand National run. Call It A Day also ran well in the National as did Beau until coming to grief. However, despite their decent efforts it cannot be ignored that these two talented horses remained winless for the remainder of their careers. Let's no forget, these are the horses that fared best after winning this! Reasoning behind this is clearly the inevitable hefty hike in the weights a Whitbread victory brings, plus the fact that his is a massive ask for any horse at the end of the season. Even those that came here relatively fresh would've been at least on the go at home for some months. I expect similar future success (or not as the case may be) for this year's protaganists, expecially considering how the race was run. Although the time wasn't anything special, for most of the race the pace was suicidal. To see how breakneck this year's gallop was I have compared sectionals and splits with last years race which was on similar ground. Sectionals ...................To 3rd.....To Pond.....To Water......To Last.....To Finish 2009.............1:20.........3:15..........5:25...........7:00.......7:18:20 2008.............1:23.........3:22..........5:31...........7:02.......7:16:50 Splits ..................Start=>3rd.....3rd=>Pond........Pond=>Water..........Water=>Last........Last=>Finish 2009...............1:20................1:55..................2:10......................1:35.....................0:18 2008...............1:23................1:59..................2:09......................1:31.....................0:15 This year's runners reached the final railway fence 6secs quicker than those in 2008 yet recorded a 90sec slower final time. It was simply a case of going too fast too early and it's no wonder they were barely out of canter inside the last, by that stage it was down to stamina alone. 2008 was a much more even, sensible, gallop. The first four home yesterday, Hennessy, Briery Fox, Lacdoudal, and Church Island, all had extremely tough races, especially Hennessy, Lacdoudal and Church Island who ran extrodinarily well as they were up with/forcing the pace throughout. I worry that the punishing gallop not only ruined many horses chances of winning yesterday, but may have finished or ruined the careers of those who coped with it. Taking this into account plus what history tells us regarding previous winners, it doesn't bode well for aforementioned quartet. But what are horse and rider to do? Give up at the halfway stage when it's apparent the pace is dangerous? Tony McCoy did change his mind with regards to his intended front running tactics on Hennessy when it became apparent (to him at least), that the leader was going too fast, but that was to give his mount the best chance of winning this race. In such instances, should there be added thought regarding a horse's future? Perhaps it's unrealistic to suggest so, racing is about winning and who would want to deny horses or connections their chance of greatness, after all you never know what's around the corner. However, it should always be taken into consideration that winning comes with a price, and sometimes that price is high. Be lucky.

[chris34]

Re: The High Price Of Success Yet again another brilliant read from you Billy, very interesting!!!