Wincanton 28/4/09

[fintron]

3.30 Wincanton

Nine runners are declared for this handicap chase over 3m 1f 110y. The horses with winning form around the trip are Otantique (24f), Tom Sayers (28f), Fire and Rain (24f), Aces or Better (24f) and Openide (23f).

Otantique returns from a 545 day break but Emma Lavelle's gelding was most progressive when last seen at the races, and won both of his starts since turning to chasing. He is 5 lbs higher than his last win but stays, is versatile ground wise, and should give a good account if all is well.

Tom Sayers has the strongest staying credentials in the field and won over course and distance in October 2007. He missed the whole of 2008 and hasn't won since. This year he has ran three times, finishing 5th of 11 at Newbury in March but failing to complete either side, pulling at Newbury and then at this track last time out.

Fire and Rain is Emma Lavelle's second runner and looks the stable first string with Choc Thornton booked to ride. He won easily in a handicap chase at Kempton last time out over slightly shorter, and carries a 7 lb penalty here as a consequence. He seemed to have sorted himself out after a shaky start to his chase career and bids for the four timer here. Highly progressive of late all of his wins have come on good ground, so he will hope for conditions to remain unaltered.

Aces or Better is an unexposed gelding just starting out his chase career. He showed ability as a hurdler and even had a crack at a Grade 2 prize over the smaller obstancles in April '07. He then moved onto chasing and made a promising start winning on his debut over fences in a beginners race and then only losing narrowly to Our Jasper next time out. He could potentially be fairly handicapped off 119 bearing in Our Jasper has been competing well off higher marks of late, but he is another returning from a break and fitness has to be taken on trust.

Openide won a Grade 3 novices chase three years ago and hasn't won since. He has competed in plenty of handicaps and arguably his best effort in handicaps came at last years Cheltenham festival when second in the Kim Muir. He won't mind soft and probably will stay this trip, but he has been well beaten off marks in the 130's and more recently 120's and will have to hope his easing mark can bring about some improvement.

I think Fire and Rain is the most likely winner because he holds a fitness advantage over some of these, but he steps up to face some progressive horses here, and at the price I'll have him as a saver. Otantique and Aces or Better are the two I like, and swayed by the prices I take the Brendan Powell horse as a main bet with Otantique as a saver. Suggested bets: Fire and Rain - 2/1 Bet 365, 0.35 pt Otantique - 6/1 Paddy, 0.15 pt Aces or Better - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt