Brighton 26/4/09

[RussP]

5.25 Brighton Final race of the day and the handicap features 10 runners for a 5f sprint, Class 5 0-70. Again, this looks a very open event and you couldn't back any of the market principles with huge confidence. I firmly believe that Brighton is a track like no other in the UK with such a steep descent and then rising in the final furlong so course form is worth plenty. Looking at the main contenders, Green Velvet is in super form but has only 9 career runs to its name, is raised sharply in the weights and has never run on turf. Has a chance but I cannot take 5's on this. The other horse vying for favouritism is Bluebox, another never to win here. Has disappointed on its only visit here. The horse is in form but on the AW and is stepped up in grade today too. Multahab is a course winner, in fact it has 4 winners and a 2nd from 14 tries here. Looking a little deeper though, its record in Class 5 or above reads 0 wins or places from 5 starts against 4 wins, 1 2nd from 9 starts in Class 6 or below. Matterofact also has won here but may not appreciate the rattling quick ground as much as the others, whilst Drifting Gold has claims with its stable in form but needs to provide its ability to act on the track. This leaves us with an overpriced horse for this 10 runner heat in: Cosmic Destiny (14/1 Betfred) - Conditions today look ideal. Brighton over 5f on quick ground are just what it needs to produce its best. Has raced 15 times here, winning twice, 2nd once and 3rd 5 times. Has only raced twice in this grade on firmish ground here since the start of 08, finishing 3rd & 2nd off marks higher than todays. Interestingly, trainer stated at the back end of 07 that the horse will not get 6f and that he wouldn't run it over that trip again, yet has tried it 6 times since without success. This, in turn, has kept its mark to a decent level and the horse looks capable of winning off its current handicap mark of 66. Since the start of last term, has only raced off a mark this low twice, both on the AW finishing a very close up 4th at Lingfield when squeezed for room and then winning nto at Wolverhampton. Has run 3 times since running nowhere each but excuses - right handed at Kempton didn't suit, outclassed in Class 4, trip to far over 6f. Such a consistent type that I see a big run on the cards. When the race has had its conditions in the last 12 months (ie, AW or fast ground, left handed, Class 5 or below, irrespective of mark), its form has been 2-3-2-4-3-4-1. The only question mark I put on todays race is the jockey booking. Not sure he is value for his 5lb claim and that could be the downfall and reason for the huge odds. If the jockey gives it a good ride, 14/1 could look massive come 5.30pm.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Brighton 26/4/09 BATCHWORTH BLAISE 2.40 Brighton. 0.5 points each way. Been racing on the all weather lately and I think he'll benefit from this return to the grass. The trip's fine and there appears to be enough pace to the race to finish strongly and with getting in off a mark of 53 he'd look a solid choice.