Bluff?

[PGremlin]

How much is bluffing integrated in your game? Found a nice article (bit basic) on Wikipedia about bluff this night... comments would be appreciated :ok http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluff_(poker) Pure bluff A pure bluff, or stone-cold bluff, is a bet or raise with an inferior hand that has little or no chance of improving. A player making a pure bluff believes he can win the pot only if all opponents fold. The pot odds for a bluff are the ratio of the size of the bluff to the pot. A pure bluff has a positive expectation (will be profitable in the long run) when the probability of being called by an opponent is lower than the pot odds for the bluff. For example, suppose that after all the cards are out, a player holding a busted drawing hand decides that the only way to win the pot is to make a pure bluff. If the player bets the size of the pot on a pure bluff, the bluff will have a positive expectation if the probability of being called is less than 50%. Note, however, that the opponent may also consider the pot odds when deciding whether to call. In this example, the opponent will be facing 2-to-1 pot odds for the call. The opponent will have a positive expectation for calling the bluff if the opponent believes the probability the player is bluffing is at least 33%. Semi-bluff In games with multiple betting rounds, to bluff on one round with an inferior or drawing hand that might improve in a later round is called a semi-bluff. A player making a semi-bluff can win the pot two different ways: by all opponents folding immediately or by catching a card to improve the player's hand. In some cases a player may be on a draw but with odds strong enough that he is favored to win the hand. In this case his bet is not classified as a semi-bluff even though his bet may force opponents to fold hands with better current strength. For example, a player in a stud poker game with four spade-suited cards showing (but none among their downcards) on the penultimate round might raise, hoping that his opponents believe he already has a flush. If his bluff fails and he is called, he still might be dealt a spade on the final card and win the showdown (or he might be dealt another non-spade and try his bluff again, in which case it is a pure bluff on the final round rather than a semi-bluff). Bluffing circumstances Bluffing may be more effective in some circumstances than others. Bluffs have a higher expectation when the probability of being called decreases. Several game circumstances may decrease the probability of being called (and increase the profitability of the bluff):

• Fewer opponents who must fold to the bluff.
• The bluff provides less favorable pot odds to opponents for a call.
• A scare card comes that increases the number of superior hands that the player may be perceived to have.
• The player's betting pattern in the hand has been consistent with the superior hand they are representing with the bluff.
• The opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a marginal hand that is vulnerable to a greater number of potential superior hands.
• The opponent's betting pattern suggests the opponent may have a drawing hand and the bluff provides unfavorable pot odds to the opponent for chasing the draw.
• Opponents are not irrationally committed to the pot (see sunk cost fallacy).
• Opponents are sufficiently skilled and paying sufficient attention.
• The opponent's current state of mind should be taken into consideration when bluffing. Under certain circumstances external pressures or events can significantly impact an opponent's decision making skills.

Optimal bluffing frequency If a player bluffs too infrequently, observant opponents will recognize that the player is betting for value and will call with very strong hands or with drawing hands only when they are receiving favorable pot odds. If a player bluffs too frequently, observant opponents snap off his bluffs by calling or re-raising. Occasional bluffing disguises not just the hands a player is bluffing with, but also his legitimate hands that opponents may think he may be bluffing with. David Sklansky, in his book The Theory of Poker, states "Mathematically, the optimal bluffing strategy is to bluff in such a way that the chances against your bluffing are identical to the pot odds your opponent is getting." Optimal bluffing also requires that the bluffs must be performed in such a manner that opponents cannot tell when a player is bluffing or not. To prevent bluffs from occurring in a predictable pattern, game theory suggests the use of a randomizing agent to determine whether to bluff. For example, a player might use the colors of his hidden cards, the second hand on his watch, or some other unpredictable mechanism to determine whether to bluff.

[AJ]

Re: Bluff? It's very situational, in a tourney situation I'll bluff when my "m" dictates it and I have a chance to pick up uncontested pots. But that's more blind stealing than bluffing, although perhaps it's a sub set. In cash games, sometimes i'll play total air, depends on my read of th epalyers, but not very often. Semi bluffs, sure i'll draw when there is value

[BAM]

Re: Bluff? As AJ says it is very situational and it also comes with experience. It somehow becomes second nature and you know exactly when to and when not to but there is no science to it. I like the idea of 'sunk cost fallacy' I'm going to use that in my next live game :)

[billy the punter]

Re: Bluff? Some randoms thoughts... If there was no bluffing, all poker players would be more tightly grouped with regards to their overall P/L's. You cannot be a winning poker player without winning pots with the worst hand. I believe that semi-bluffs are often over used by players, they can look very obvious. Although it's always best to have an out when bluffing re-raising all-in with flush draws is not my style. I see so many people do this when there opponent clearly has a hand or is pot committed - this is NOT the time to semi-bluff, regardless of your draw. Any bluff, semi or not should only be used if there is a reasonable chance (in your mind) that your opponent will fold. Games are in a constant state of flux so knowing how your opponents are playing/feeling, and how they think you are playing/feeling is paramount. The better the opponent the more believable you have to make the bluff, be it subtlely or creating the story earlier in the hand. In better games you cannot bet a missed draw if you haven't been the aggressor previously in the hand for example - you will get called. In lesser games pure aggression may see you through, unless your opponent is very poor and cannot pass anything. :ok

[evilfook]

Re: Bluff? very dangerous avenue to go down sumtimes but again it can pay off