Past.... today... what tomorrow?

[elefage]

Hi all, Been following this forum for quite some time, but never bothered to post. Time for a change! Hereby I would like to start the following system if approved: The idea is that I look for tennis odds on players that were priced significantly lower in their last meeting, regardless of that result. For example, today Djokovic is priced 2.1 v Verdasco. During their last meeting, one and a half years ago, Djokovic was priced 1.23. Djokovic has had a mediocre year, while Verdasco has been excellent, but nevertheless a huge price change since then. Certain factors may prevent me from selecting: - Age can play a role. For example, if Nadal was a dog against Moya when he was aged 16 and priced 1.25 two years later I wont bother. This is clearly a huge talent that has developed. - If a player has had a significant meltdown in their career, possibly caused by injury. - Surface plays a role, but given most players can handle any surface, I will probably ignore it most of the time. Hernandez can win indoors and Isner can win on clay, however, if the two met on clay last h2h and meet indoors this time its probably better to skip. - If their h2h is over 2 years ago, unless not much has changed since then in terms of rankings for both. At some point I could make these constraints more specific/objective by turning them into figures, but for now I would like to be able to tweak a bit according to my own taste as well. I have no idea where this will lead to and one could argue that form is overpriced in some cases, but one could also argue that the player with significantly higher odds compared to their last h2h is overpriced due to the idea that punters like to bet on the familar names (like Djokovic today). In other words, they are still stuck in the past. I would say the first outweights the latter, so I will select the players with the higher odds this time around. However, I keep both options open. If after 100 matches I have a -10% yield, the latter theory/form could well play a more significant role. Or both cancel each other out... certainly not unlikely, but no certainty either, as I believe these two matters play a significant role in price determination. Basically I am also asking myself the question, if these two meet in the future, would the player be priced lower again, like in the past? It is certainly not a system to follow at this stage, but hopefully some of you are interested to see how this will develop and I welcome your suggestions/comments. Oh, odds to be taken from Betfair or Pinnacle.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Welcome to PL! Please read the rules about posting systems in this section, about starting bank and so on

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? My apologies, I was hoping to get some response first though on whether the system is ok or not, but I guess this also depends on staking and bank. I would like to start with 100 unit bank and stake 1, 5, 10 units. 5 in most cases, 10 if odds are lower then lets say 1.50 (which I suspect wont happen as much), and 1 odds if are very high. Confidence could also play a role in staking, but I will try and limit this at an early stage to see where this is going. To clarify, this is a PAPER TRIAL system. Hope this is clear.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Crystal clear, good luck! :ok

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? selection nr 1: Djokovic v Verdasco pick: Djokovic, 2.05 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting 17-10-2007: 1.23 Djokovic 5 Verdasco (h2h 2-2) Somewhat suspicious about this one, but perhaps market overreacting to Verdascos win over Ferrer and set loss Djokovic to Montanes.

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Forgot to add, selections from both ATP and WTA! selection nr 2: Schiavone v Safarova (clay) pick: Schiavone, 1.90 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting: 12-5-2008, 1.28 Schiavone 4.30 Safarova (clay, h2h 1-1) Final selection today. Perhaps another pitfall, as Safarova is talented and had a slump last year. Schiavone not coming of a great year either and although it is hard to tell whether the near future will favour Schiavone, the price change in such a short period is too significant to ignore.

[davidc]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Good luck with this elefage and :welcome to the Punters Lounge.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Great start, 2 out of 2! :loon

[Datapunter]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? :welcome and good luck :ok

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Thanks fellows, 2/2 :nanaoff to an ideal start, but the peak has been reached... Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 109.75 Total staked: 10 Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 2 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Yield: 97.5% Profit (or Loss): 9.75 Ill skip today and doubt something will be there for tomorrow, but Monday should deliver selections.

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? selection nr 3: Youzhny v Wawrinka (clay) pick: Youzhny, 3.88 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting: 8-8-2007, 1.36 Youzhny (hard, h2h 1-0) Youzhny comes off a bit of a slump, Wawrinka excellent last week and approaching top 10, nevertheless I dont believe things have changed as much as the odds suggest here. Although Youzhny prefers a faster surface, his record on clay is acceptable enough to make this a worthy selection.

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Selection 3 LOST, Wawrinka 7-5 6-1. Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 104.75 Total staked: 15 Number of bets: 3 Winning bets: 2 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 66.7% Yield: 31.7% Profit: 4.75 Selection Nr 4: Kohlschreiber v Bolelli (clay) pick: Kohlschreiber, 2.22 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting: 29-3-2008, Kohlschreiber 1.36 (hard, h2h 0-1) Going against form again With both not a huge surface advantage, price quite generous compared to a year ago.

[sjuesju]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? It is really interesting system. From the beginning i started to wonder can we use similar system to other sports? Good luck with this one :)

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Thanks sjuesju, tennis is a good sport to use as there are many matches and stats are available. Good offer. Other individual sports packed in a one-on-one contest could be interesting, but team sports seem a different story to me. H2h in football perhaps says something about teams past, but with teams changing quite rapidly its a different story. If Man Utd lies in 18th position next year and Bolton lies 2nd after 20 matches :lol, the selection will be Man Utd according to the system and you would probably be on Man Utd for lots of matches thereafter. I would say the public would certainly be thinking of them to climb back as well.

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Selection 4 WON, Kohlschreiber 4-6 6-1 6-0. Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 110.85 Total staked: 20 Number of bets: 4 Winning bets: 3 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 75% Yield: 54% Profit: 10.85 Selection Nr 5: Federer v Djokovic (clay) pick: Federer, 2.28 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting: 3-4-2009, Federer 1.44 (hard, lost, h2h 7-3) Odds were awfully low on Fed two months ago, yet this is the 1/2 final to which both players made it without set loss. Not a tournament to his liking, whereas Djokovic won this thing last year, but nevertheless a worthy selection.

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Selection 5 LOST, Fed loses in 3 sets. Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 105.85 Total staked: 25 Number of bets: 5 Winning bets: 3 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 60% Yield: 23.4% Profit: 5.85 3 selections, two date back quite long so only one unit, but quite interested to see how the one units end up doing. Selection Nr 6: pick: Devilder (clay), 2.77 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting: 20-4-2009, Devilder 1.54 (clay, lost, h2h 0-1) Selection Nr 7: pick: Chakvetadze (clay), 3.90 Pinnacle, 1 unit Last meeting: 8-2-2007, Chak 1.23 (indoor, won, h2h 5-0) Selection Nr 8: pick: Sugiyama (clay), 2.75 Betfair, 1 unit Last meeting: 28-6-2007, Sugi 1.33 (grass, won, h2h 1-0)

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Selection 6 LOST, -5 Selection 7 WON, +2.9 Selection 8 LOST, -1 Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 102.75 Total staked: 32 Number of bets: 8 Winning bets: 4 Losing bets: 4 Strike rate: 50% Yield: 8.6% Profit: 2.75 Selection 9: Youzhny v Almagro, Munich (clay) pick: Youzhny, 2.83 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting: 31-3-2008, Youzhny 1.57 (hard, won, h2h 1-0) The match where Youzhny smashed his racquet against is head like a madman and still managed to win. Maybe this one should not be added as the surface clearly favours Almagro. However, Youzhny reached the final here 2 years ago and Almagro looks beatable atm. Selection 10: Schnyder v Kanepi, Rome (clay) pick: Schnyder, 2.18 Betfair, 5 units Last meeting: 30-3-2008, Schnyder 1.41 (hard, lost, h2h 0-2) Schnyder finally picking up some wins after some poor results and although Kanepi lost only a few games in their previous encounters this should be a different match on a surface that suits Schnyder.

[mirda5]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? hello there! ...if anybody is interested in some kind of fixed picks: (picks from players of some leagues) they can contact me on mail: [email protected] this is short history of this week: monday: Duisburg-Furth 1 2,25 2-0 tuesday: (tennis match) Roger-Vassel -- Kudryavtse 2 1,90 0 : 2 ...if you hurry, maybe you have time to come on today pick... more abouth today pick tonight! waiting for you, and good luck!

[elefage]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? No clue what that has got to do with my system mirda5, but whats a proper post without a bit of spam huh :unsure Selection 9 WON, +9.15 Selection 10 LOST, -5 Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 106.90 Total staked: 42 Number of bets: 10 Winning bets: 5 Losing bets: 5 Strike rate: 50% Yield: 16.4% Profit: 6.90 Selection 11: Kirilenko v Zheng, Madrid (clay) pick: Kirilenko, 2.73 Pinnacle, 5 units Last meeting: 29-5-2008, Kirilenko 1.18!!! (clay, lost, h2h 1-3) Crazy odds back then, but surface favours Kirilenko and although form sides with Zheng, not much should seperate these two on clay. All past matches were extremely tight.