Past.... today... what tomorrow?

[elefage]

Hi all, Been following this forum for quite some time, but never bothered to post. Time for a change! Hereby I would like to start the following system if approved: The idea is that I look for tennis odds on players that were priced significantly lower in their last meeting, regardless of that result. For example, today Djokovic is priced 2.1 v Verdasco. During their last meeting, one and a half years ago, Djokovic was priced 1.23. Djokovic has had a mediocre year, while Verdasco has been excellent, but nevertheless a huge price change since then. Certain factors may prevent me from selecting: - Age can play a role. For example, if Nadal was a dog against Moya when he was aged 16 and priced 1.25 two years later I wont bother. This is clearly a huge talent that has developed. - If a player has had a significant meltdown in their career, possibly caused by injury. - Surface plays a role, but given most players can handle any surface, I will probably ignore it most of the time. Hernandez can win indoors and Isner can win on clay, however, if the two met on clay last h2h and meet indoors this time its probably better to skip. - If their h2h is over 2 years ago, unless not much has changed since then in terms of rankings for both. At some point I could make these constraints more specific/objective by turning them into figures, but for now I would like to be able to tweak a bit according to my own taste as well. I have no idea where this will lead to and one could argue that form is overpriced in some cases, but one could also argue that the player with significantly higher odds compared to their last h2h is overpriced due to the idea that punters like to bet on the familar names (like Djokovic today). In other words, they are still stuck in the past. I would say the first outweights the latter, so I will select the players with the higher odds this time around. However, I keep both options open. If after 100 matches I have a -10% yield, the latter theory/form could well play a more significant role. Or both cancel each other out... certainly not unlikely, but no certainty either, as I believe these two matters play a significant role in price determination. Basically I am also asking myself the question, if these two meet in the future, would the player be priced lower again, like in the past? It is certainly not a system to follow at this stage, but hopefully some of you are interested to see how this will develop and I welcome your suggestions/comments. Oh, odds to be taken from Betfair or Pinnacle.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Past.... today... what tomorrow? Welcome to PL! Please read the rules about posting systems in this section, about starting bank and so on