Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

[bowles10]

Selections in here please What i need is the Timeform ratings, meant to pick up the horses to follow book but havent seen it in WH Smiths yet, i know its available on line, really needed it for this meeting doh!

[TheRat]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April Art Conouisseur (sp?!) running tomorrow. At around 11/2 I may not be able to resist. Will be looking forward to seeing him though

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

Selections in here please What i need is the Timeform ratings, meant to pick up the horses to follow book but havent seen it in WH Smiths yet, i know its available on line, really needed it for this meeting doh!

It is out, there were loads in my local WHS a few weeks ago. Picked one up as one of mine got a mention this year! :loon Although I don't use formbooks throughout the season there are a few decent yearbooks such as that about - can be interesting reading. Haven't got around to checking any out recently though.

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

It is out, there were loads in my local WHS a few weeks ago. Picked one up as one of mine got a mention this year! :loon Although I don't use formbooks throughout the season there are a few decent yearbooks such as that about - can be interesting reading. Haven't got around to checking any out recently though.

will be in croydon WHS tomorrow morning then as have to visit the ghetto again! Just found it useful especially in April & May last year on the 3yo's as most i dont know the form so any progressive animal is good enough for me. I tend to use the p, P, + markings in the timeform book to pinpoint the winners.

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

will be in croydon WHS tomorrow morning then as have to visit the ghetto again! Just found it useful especially in April & May last year on the 3yo's as most i dont know the form so any progressive animal is good enough for me. I tend to use the p, P, + markings in the timeform book to pinpoint the winners.

There was loads in the Bromley WHS. There are a few new features in this years book too. It was £9, sure it never used to be that much, so I think it's a bigger publication thesedays. The Craven thread is now the book review section! Sorry guys.

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 3.00 Nehaam Following the line of winners from Newmarket maidens would point to just this horse. Richard Hills rode it last september to a 1.25L win. Good write up in the RPost after winning that race. NEEHAM, a 200,000gns son of Nayef, half-brother to among others very useful 7f-1m6f winner Astrocharm, proved good enough. It looked as though he might be held inside the final two furlongs, but he really found his stride coming out of the Dip and, after changing his legs in the final 100 yards or so, he lengthened well. There should be agood deal of improvement to come and his trainer mentioned that he´s entered in a big sales race back here in October. He also has entries in the Royal Lodge and the Racing Post Trophy and should make a very decent sort over further next year. wasnt seen again last season. However, the 2nd & 4th both won next time out. Should stay 1m2f on breeding so no problems there & perfect ground tomorrow. Entered in the Dante & the Derby. Ciurrently 8.6 available on Betfair

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 3.30 Trends show the fav has won last 3 runnings with the longest price winner being 9/1 in last 10 years. Think you need plenty of speed to win this race so a sprint breeding may be a benefit. I like the look of Pennys Gift to give Hannon his 3rd win in 11 years in this race. Won the Ascot sales race over 6f & then stepped up to a listed win here over 6f in October. Art Connoisseur was my ascot horse for last year but somewhat lost its way in the final 3 outings of the season. Has to give over a stone to my selection.

[mowgli77]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

3.30 Trends show the fav has won last 3 runnings with the longest price winner being 9/1 in last 10 years. Think you need plenty of speed to win this race so a sprint breeding may be a benefit. I like the look of Pennys Gift to give Hannon his 3rd win in 11 years in this race. Won the Ascot sales race over 6f & then stepped up to a listed win here over 6f in October. Art Connoisseur was my ascot horse for last year but somewhat lost its way in the final 3 outings of the season. Has to give over a stone to my selection.

Pennys Gift was the last one I discounted, certainly has course experience/form. :ok I've taken 2 others: Newmarket 3.35 Art Connoisseur looked a real decent type as a 2 yr old and seemed to have a special turn of foot, especially when winning a Group 2 race at Ascot on Good to Firm ground under Jamie Spencer, it was given a shake of the reins and picked up in style in a matter of strides. It then ran a 4 1/2 length second to Mastercraftsman at Curragh over 6f in a Group 1 race and the trainer didn't seem too happy with the performance as it lacked that finishing kick on the day: Quote:

The winner has obviously improved a lot, although I don't think our horse quite showed the form he did at Royal Ascot. He hasn't shown the same turn offoot today. We'll take him home and see how he is, his possible targets are the Gimcrack and Prix Morny

It ran poorly in a Group 2 at the end of the season but had cracked a cannon bone which is excusable. It has not won over 7f but the extra furlong should not really be a problem. If the horse returns to the track fully fit and raring to go it has to have every chance despite shouldering top weight in this listed handicap. Jamie Spencer has ridden it every race and is on board again today and he has a 22% strike rate over the last 14 days. The trainer M W Bell also has a 22% strike rate over the last 14 days and has had a couple of placed horses too. It has won here under the jockey and he will have it handily placed for the surge in the last 1-2 furlongs, often races held up but in touch. The other I like the look of in this race is Courageous, it is quite lightly raced and only had 4 races as a 2 yr old and has a formline of 1-5-2-5 but the final 5th was in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster, only beaten 8 1/4 l and was hampered towards the final furlong. The trip of 7f should be fine, it's out of Refuse To Bend and the trainer paid 230,000 EUR for it in 2007. After winning its maiden at Redcar the trainer stated: Quote:

I've always liked this horse and he'll make a smashing miler next season. The plan was to drop him in as he's been a bit buzzy

Both its maiden race and the RP Trophy race were on good ground so it should be fine regarding ground conditions, will definitely get further this season and was staying on well over 7f at Doncaster when 2nd in a class 3 race before returning there a month later. I think this will be a very good 3 yr old and i'm interested in how it runs in this race. If they go off at a good pace it should suit this horse and Spencers mount, this one has been held up 3 times and tracked the leaders once. It is certainly open to improvement, Brian Smart won this race in 2006 and he currently has an 18% strike rate over the last 14 days and a 24% strike rate overall with a £26.50 profit to a £1 stake. Suggested Bets and odds to follow tomorrow morning as only Paddy Power are currently pricing up this race.

[TOP CAT]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April SORRY to go against you bowles, 3-00pm at Newmarket (popmurphy) ok its going up in class but it won well last time out over the distance 1m 2f, had a diffrent jockey on top that day, Mr Jim Crowley makes the trip for this sole ride, should be a nice price and well worth a buck e/w bet.

[TOP CAT]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April Also made a note in the 4-10pm at Newmarket Mr Jimmy Fortune is riding for Mr C Brittain, and Mr R Hills takes the ride with Mr John Gosdon. Worth a look on both.

[alexmac]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 3.35 - Newmarket - ART CONNOISEUR At last! Some top drawer flat racing on turf. This is when the season REALLY starts for me. I have been a fan of Art Connoiseur since he won his first couple of starts at Leicester and Newmarket, before winning with a stunning change of gears at Royal Ascot, where he absolutely hacked up. I backed him for the 2000 Guineas straight after that at 25/1. Although that price is still available, I doubt it will be if Art Connoiseur can prove he is back to full fitness after breaking a cannon. His last 2 starts where below par, but he has shown he has talent, and is finishing 2nd to Mastercraftsman really that bad a result after 3 good wins earlier in the season? This horse is on my list of horses to follow and I make him an exceptional E/W chance at the very least here, if he really is back to full fitness. 1pt E/W @ 11/2 (Paddy Power)

[Spooner]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 14:25 - Monsieur Chevalier @ 11/10 Bet365 (bog) Won well on debut last week at Folkestone by 5 lengths, trainer (Richard Hannon) has a very good record in this race winning it four times in the last ten attempts, looks a decent type and should go well again here. The stable actually have another runner in the newcomer Captain Cool however Monsieur Chevalier is the one to beat. 16:10 - Fantasia @ 4/5 Coral This filly looks very classy indeed and was only 2½ behind the impressive 1000 guineas favourite Rainbow View, that form does look very strong indeed and gives her a massive chance here. She has been a winner on her only other two career runs, winning her maiden at Newmarket and then followed that up with a win at Goodwood. She is a winner over both 6&7f, runs over 7f today. Frankie Dettori is back to ride and will take the ride on this horse, assuming she is fit and well she will take all the beating here.

[fintron]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 2.25 Newmarket Hearts of Fire won well on his debut in the Brocklesby at Doncaster and that win came as no surprise to the yard as he had been working well at home. 2nd (twice), 7th and 9th have all won races since to boost the value of that form and 4th and 5th have also gone close. 11/4 3.00 Newmarket Classically caught the eye over this trip at Doncaster on the opening day of the season when going down by a narrow margin to Everything, and built upon a promising debut at Newbury. He's a half brother to 1,000 Guineas and Rockfel winner Speciosa and could have more to offer at a big price. 33/1

[fintron]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 5.55 Newmarket The typical profile for the winners of this handicap is a lightly raced type (around 3 runs), making their reappearance and who won their last maiden race well. Several fit that profile, but Dark Mischief appeals the most. Henry Candy's colt capitalised on a good draw to beat todays fav, Green Beret, by over two lengths in a Windsor maiden, and is infact better weighted here as they ran off level weights on that occassion and he's getting 7 lbs here. Admittedly, he doesn't have the benefit of a recent run like the Gosden rival, but providing he has trained on he could be tough to beat. His fifth in a listed race at Doncaster lto can be excused after he broke badly, and drawn in stall 12 today he may be able to find a decent early position. The other one that may be a bit of a surprise package is Elusive Fame, who hacked up on his debut at Wolves. He drops back in trip but is worth a go at 6f here judging by the manner of his win lto and given he is related to winning sprinters. Masamah is an Exceed and Excel Colt that made a good impression in two novices races last term. Although well beaten in Newbury Group 3 when last seen, he is up against lesser opposition here and is another big price. Suggested bets: Dark Mischief 11/2 Hills, 0.8 pt Elusive Fame 18/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt Masamah 16/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt

[Lucky-15]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

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Newmarket 15.35 Betterbet European Free Handicap(Listed) 12/13 raced at least 3 times as a juvenile. 12/13 raced in a group race as a juvenile. 12/13 made their seasonal reappearence. 9/10 emerged from the first three in the betting. 12/13 had been off course for six months. All this taken into account it leaves us the Barry Hills trained Ouqba to win this race.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 3.00 Popmurphy 16/1 sj bog 5 pts e.w Very impressed by this one last week. He needed to show something to be sure of being in this race and he did on his debut. This derby entry won fto and showed good staying power to see off the fav that day who had fair maiden form previously and also with a noticeable gap back to the next. This is a tough race here but he should be finishing strongly which will have to be required here and could be an interested unexposed dark horse. 3.35 Awinnersgame 9/2 sj bog10 pts This one was behind AC in the Coventry last year but gets a pull today and since that race both have had contrasting fortunes. AC struggled to maintain its form whereas this one progressed well and had good sales race form at the end of the season. Beat the useful Damien and even afterwards at the curragh it ran fairly well to be sixth if nothing amazing that day. It has options with regards trip in the future but showing speed isn’t the worst thing in this race in the past and could go fairly well. 4.10 Fantasia 10/11 sj bog 10 pts A little bit worried about the trip here as although is proven at it, surely looks likely to want a trip in time and could be vulnerable to one with some speed here. However the real class act of the race who has loads in hand on the figures. Top class form after winning a maiden in difficult conditions to then a group race and then a good effort behind rainbow view. Steps down in trip back to 7f today but I will be amazed if Frankie is not up there today, no way will he or cumani want this to be a crawl and could repel them all. 4.45 Redwood 3/1 boy bog 10 pts Tricky little race. However Redwood was ever so taking last year in its maiden win at big odds and is the pick. Hills doesn’t have many fto winners but this one did and did so in a classy style. Travelled very well from the back of the field yet still managed to pick up the leaders despite giving them some start too. Mixed messages with regard form of that race although the third ran a good race in the racing post trophy since which was a boost. He isn’t in the derby but is a Dante entry and whilst he still has it to find with these on figures, he could really be anything as the saying goes and should appreciate the trip too. 5.20 Invisible Man 7/4 tote 15 pts this is what I said last night when looking at this one as a guineas darkhorse, ‘A bit of a wild shot this one and a talking horse if you like but in what really looks an open guineas this year it could be one that emerges and with a possible big run promised tomorrow, it could just be this one. He is extremely well bred and clearly must have been showing something at home to go off just 1/3 for his market bow, remarkably given such odds he lost as he ran third on the a.w and has to go down as disappointing. If he had been any other horse it may have been an ok debut. Anyway its pretty significant I feel that Gosden still thinks it worthy to be in the guineas still. Obviously he has much to prove but it will be worth watching nonetheless to see how he gets on and quite how good he is. Also interestingly he is 50/1 with bookies yet much shorter on the exchanges for the guineas.’ 5.55 Dark Mischief 5/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w Again fitness issues but from a trainer well known for his sprinters it looks an interesting sprinting type if not of a slightly mixed background. It beat todays rival green beret and also had the classy soul city in fourth. After that was off for a while and presumably had problems and finished fifth but that wasn’t a terrible run after a lay off nor considering it missed the break quite badly which compromised its chance especially considering it made all on debut. It may try similar tactics today and could go close off 86.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 3.35 Newmarket Right :loon looked at the last 10 runnings of the race and weighted the trends on a sliding scale so the most recent are worth more than those 9, 10 yrs ago etc. Also form trends were worth more than likely SP and market position trends. You follow? :beer I looked at: Weight Likely SP Likely Market Position Debut Date Debut RPR Best RPR Hi class of win Hi class of place Debut pos Lto pos Each horse started with 100pts, and pts were deducted depending on how much they deviated from the weighted trend, and gave me these results 1. Awinnersgame 73.17 2. Courageous 71.42 3. Marine Boy 63.67 4. Penny's Gift 63.07 5. Ouqba 62.42 6. Art Connoiseur 61.27 7. Rose Diamond 60.27 8. Wildcat Wizard 48.67 9. Snoqualmie Girl 40.27 10. Saxford 14.07 What that all leads me to is: Awinnersgame 55% stake @4/1(BOG) Bet365 Courageous 45% stake @ 9/2(BOG) Bet365 :gimme

[Trotter]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 4.10 Misdaqeya - EW Has to be some doubts about the odds-on favourite, Fantasia..........will 7F be too sharp for her now ?, will she be fully wouind up with big races just around the corner ? She's a Sadlers Wells.......one of my favourite sires, but they usually need 12 furlongs and mud to bring out the best,....... Looking for an EW.......... Misdaqeya is the second top rated on official figures, finished 2nd to Rainbow View in the Sweet Solera ( ok, a long way 2nd.........:tongue2 ) and the Hills stable is flying At around 18/1 she looks a good EW alternative

[Lucky-15]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

3.00 Nehaam Following the line of winners from Newmarket maidens would point to just this horse. Richard Hills rode it last september to a 1.25L win. Good write up in the RPost after winning that race. NEEHAM, a 200,000gns son of Nayef, half-brother to among others very useful 7f-1m6f winner Astrocharm, proved good enough. It looked as though he might be held inside the final two furlongs, but he really found his stride coming out of the Dip and, after changing his legs in the final 100 yards or so, he lengthened well. There should be agood deal of improvement to come and his trainer mentioned that he´s entered in a big sales race back here in October. He also has entries in the Royal Lodge and the Racing Post Trophy and should make a very decent sort over further next year. wasnt seen again last season. However, the 2nd & 4th both won next time out. Should stay 1m2f on breeding so no problems there & perfect ground tomorrow. Entered in the Dante & the Derby. Ciurrently 8.6 available on Betfair

Great tipping bowles:nana

[Trotter]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April 5.55 Green Beret - win Fit and in form, won a class 3 handicap easily last time out and steps up to class 2 now Many of his rivals today are making their seasonal debut and might need the run, might not have trained on, might not have grown, who knows what........... Green Beret looks like a typical Gosden handicap project, quite possibly a Group horse in the making after mopping up a few handicaps. Dark Mischief did beat Green Beret on their debut runs at Windsor, but we don't know what's happened to him since and his trainer hasn't got going yet this season. Gosden is flying with 2 winners already this afternoon

[alexmac]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April Art Connoiseur is 8/1.... Doesn't bode well.... Was much shorter earlier on. At least Paddy Power pay out on the best price!

[alexmac]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April Off at 10/1!

[welshman443]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

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Newmarket 15.35 Betterbet European Free Handicap(Listed) 12/13 raced at least 3 times as a juvenile. 12/13 raced in a group race as a juvenile. 12/13 made their seasonal reappearence. 9/10 emerged from the first three in the betting. 12/13 had been off course for six months. All this taken into account it leaves us the Barry Hills trained Ouqba to win this race.

well done-lucky 15-followed you on this one-:cheers

[fintron]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April Hard luck guys, sickening when that happens. it would be interesting to keep a tally on jockey bookings and big market drifters. Well done to those on winners so far, Lucky 15 for Ouqba, Spooner on Monsiur Chevalier and Bowles on Neehan. :clap

[Trotter]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

Has to be some doubts about the odds-on favourite, Fantasia..........will 7F be too sharp for her now ?, will she be fully wouind up with big races just around the corner ? She's a Sadlers Wells.......one of my favourite sires, but they usually need 12 furlongs and mud to bring out the best,.......

:lol:lol shows what I know.............:loon

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

5.55 Newmarket The typical profile for the winners of this handicap is a lightly raced type (around 3 runs), making their reappearance and who won their last maiden race well. Several fit that profile, but Dark Mischief appeals the most. Henry Candy's colt capitalised on a good draw to beat todays fav, Green Beret, by over two lengths in a Windsor maiden, and is infact better weighted here as they ran off level weights on that occassion and he's getting 7 lbs here. Admittedly, he doesn't have the benefit of a recent run like the Gosden rival, but providing he has trained on he could be tough to beat. His fifth in a listed race at Doncaster lto can be excused after he broke badly, and drawn in stall 12 today he may be able to find a decent early position. The other one that may be a bit of a surprise package is Elusive Fame, who hacked up on his debut at Wolves. He drops back in trip but is worth a go at 6f here judging by the manner of his win lto and given he is related to winning sprinters. Masamah is an Exceed and Excel Colt that made a good impression in two novices races last term. Although well beaten in Newbury Group 3 when last seen, he is up against lesser opposition here and is another big price. Suggested bets: Dark Mischief 11/2 Hills, 0.8 pt Elusive Fame 18/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt Masamah 16/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt

:clap Told you it would turn! Well done mate.

[billy the punter]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April Well done to the other winners too on here. Nice winner bowles10 :ok Lucky 15 with Ouqba :ok Spooner with a double and all others :ok

[fintron]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

:clap Told you it would turn! Well done mate.

Cheers mate, really pleased it won, especially since it was playing up in the stalls and didn't seem to settle straight away. A timely confidence booster. Hopefully there may be more to come from it this season. Well done Woody who put it up also. :clap

[bowles10]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April

Well done to the other winners too on here. Nice winner bowles10 :ok Lucky 15 with Ouqba :ok Spooner with a double and all others :ok

Cheers, pleased with that one Nehaam & a great price as it drfited in the market. well done to the others also

[alexmac]

Re: Newmarket Craven Meeting - Weds 15th April Nice stuff lads. Keep it up.