Denman 8/1 to win Gold Cup 2010 - Big price or big risk?

[mowgli77]

I'd love to see both Kauto Star and Denman turn up at Cheltenham in March at the top of their game and give us a battling display as they run neck and neck up the hill to the line. I know there was talk of Denman being retired on here, some disagreed and some thought it was past its best. I saw 8/1 available and immediately thought that could turn out to be great value come March but with the race being nearly a year away is it too big a risk to take tying your money up in an ante post bet when we don't know Denman will get to the Gold Cup in one piece and is truly over its heart problems? It did not seem to travel yesterday and there are suggestions that it could be quirky and has planted itself on the gallops, is the horse fed up of racing* or did it just need a longer break after Cheltenham? The 2nd in the Gold Cup was a great effort considering the heart problems and maybe they should have given Aintree a miss but Nicholls was very bullish about Denmans work before this latest race. I could see them leaving Denman off track until Xmas 2009 and possibly going for a race like the Lexus at Leopardstown and then resting it until Cheltenham and aiming at the Gold Cup. Looking at the ante post horses at this moment I could only realistically look at backing Kauto, Denman or Cooldine. If Denman won a race and then got to Cheltenham in good shape I wouldn't see it bigger than about 3-1. If you were backing Denman now what price would you want for it and do you think it has any chance of regaining the Gold Cup at the next festival? *Talking of horses fed up of racing where now with Tidal Bay, a horse I rate really highly but seems to have fallen out of love with the sport, tried over 3m and failed, dropped back in trip and failed, returned to a flat track and failed, is it physically injured or is it a mentality issue?*

[Blair Boy]

Re: Denman 8/1 to win Gold Cup 2010 - Big price or big risk? Could be worth taking as you could always lay him at shorter price nearer the time of the race, Also wonder if the fall will effect which Jockey gets the ride.