Best bet of the day 31/3/09

[fintron]

Best of luck to the leading pack with something to play for tomorrow...may the best man win :drums 4.35 Folkestone Manere Bay - John Dunlop's filly was unraced as a two year old but made pleasing progress last term and starts handicapping off what I feel is a realistic mark. Sired by Olden Times, a dual 9f Group winner, it is unsuprising she started out racing over a mile in her maiden runs. An encouraging 4th of 13 on her debut at Windsor last September she took time to find her stride but made good ground in the home straight and built on that promise with another encouraging effort when 4th to Lease of Life over that same course and distance next time out. She finished three and a quarter lengths ahead of Chris Wall's filly Antillia, who won on her handicap debut off 62 and looks open to significant improvement, and against that benchmark, I think Mahere Bay has been allocated a fair mark here by the handicapper. She was last seen on heavy ground at Nottingham in October and again didn't see out a mile, so the step down to 7f tomorrow seems logical, especially since her breeding hints at speed more than stamina - she is a half sister to Maconachie, placed over 5-6f at 2-3 and Maesterstinger, a 6f winner at 2. I've taken 5.3 and personally think anything around 4/1 is fair for this 67-rated handicap debutante. 1 pt win

[jcosgrove]