Doncaster Saturday 28 March

[bowles10]

Not around this weekend so thought i'd start this off early Going to play in the brocklesby & use the trusty Bowles system which has given me the winner in the last 2 or 3 years No.3 Burtondale boy drawn 8 No.5 Eight Hours drawn 4 No.9 Koo & the gang drawn 10 No.11 Reel Easy drawn 7 No.13 Swilly ferry drawn 21 No.16 Whippers Love drawn 13 No 17 Baze Mac drawn 19 No.19 Chicita banana drawn 6 No.21 Lily Lenor drawn 17 No.22 Usquaebach drawn 5 10 runners from 22 entries. The draw will play a part as it always does. In the 8 runnings (ignore the 2 away from donny) 5 have been high numbers, 2 low (2&5) & 1 middle. The price invariably is 10/1 or under leaving a number of the above horses out. Will try & get a tissue tomorrow to see where my money is going. I like the look of Eight Hours in stall 4 as it will stay further than 5 & i expect this one will be there at the finish running on. At the other end i like Lily Lenor from stall 17.

[bowles10]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March :spank to the racing post trends, thye dont print the draw stat, are they just fcukin stupid??? Who does thier trends for fcuks sake, we need to have the draw stats, i dont want to look up every horse to check what draw it won from. Will have to email them later...

[BillyHills]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March Rob, the winners of the last 8 runnings at Doncaster have been as follows; 2008 : Drawn 19 of 19 2005 : Drawn 10 of 18 2004 : Drawn 5 of 15 2003 : Drawn 16 of 18 2002 : Drawn 15 of 17 2001 : Drawn 21 of 22 2000 : Drawn 13 of 13 1999 : Drawn 2 of 15

[fintron]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March 2.10 I like the look of Heslington, drawn in stall 2. He looks to have a little bit of speed in his blood - half brother to Ginger Pickle (5f winner at 2), dam was 6f winner at 2 and was a half-sister to a few other sprint winners. Did only fetch 3,500 guineas at the sales but is sired by top-class sprinter Piccolo who won the Nunthorpe. Is 16/1 on the SL tissue and who knows, perhaps Mel Brittain may have picked up another bargain buy? I'm gonna also take one from the the other rail too. The tissue fav Swilly Ferry is obviously highly thought of and has entries in the St Leger yearling stakes (york) and weatherby's insurance stakes (donc) later in the year so it looks like they have his future mapped out. Was bought for £58,000 and also has speed in his pedigree - sire won over 6f at 2, dam won over 5f at 3 and placed over 5f at 2. Goes from stall 21.

[fintron]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March 3.20 Donc - Cammidge Trophy Inxile has shaped as if he may be up to winning at this level and is well drawn in stall 14. He was outpaced in the final 100 yd by the useful Corrybrough at Sandown in June in a listed race when second and ran a decent race at Ayr over 5f next time out in a heritage handicap, again, getting pipped at the finish. Wasn't beaten far in a French Group 3 last time out and went well enough fresh at the start of last year. He has to carry a 3 lb penalty for winning a listed race but only two runners are better off at the weights taking that into consideration, and neither are open to the same degree of improvement as Dandy's horse. The niggling doubt I have though, does he need an extra furlong? Beaver Patrol is well drawn too in 15 and is certain to get 6f. Won over in Dubai last time out and is very versatile tactics wise as has won being held up and making all. Maybe he will sit in behind Music Box Express and Inxile? Hasn't yet won a listed race though. Internationaldebut will get a good tow from 13, but surely he isn't good enough to win at this level after some questionable recent efforts on the AW and considering he'd be getting much more off several of these in a handicap? The hold up horse that looks set for a bigger run in my opinion is David Barron's Skhilling Spirit. He virtually refused to race last time and was detached at the back of the field when behind Icelandic but the pace was slow anyway that day which wouldn't have helped. He did infact blow the start when he had won at the course on his run prior to that, but the pace was faster and allowed him to finish strongly. PL horse Dhaular Dhar was back in 4th that day! SS has a bit of work to do at the weights and is up in class from recent runs but if he can tag onto the back of the group on that side and they go all guns blazing, who knows? Music Box Express is the one in stall 16 but he's officially rated 65 so it would take an astronomical effort for him to even place. Beaten in some poor class 6 AW handicaps this winter, we can confidently cross a line though that one. However, he could still play an important role if determing the outcome of the race as he is another front runner from a high position. On the other rail Max One Two Three has only had the three starts (one in 1,000 Guineas) and has aleady won a listed race. On his blog, trainer Tom Dascombe said she had a few niggly problems last year and they decided to end her season early to prepare her for 2009. He rates her highly and she won well at York last year and will get a fillies allowance tomorrow. If all is well as expected she could run a massive race. Knot in Wood won at Kempton when last seen in October. His profile suggests he may need a run though, although he is one of the highest rated in the field. He's never won beyond handicaps and although close to Galeota in a listed race here in Nov '07, he is probably vulnerable to younger legs. Against The Grain (will only run if rains) is next to him in box 3 but has work to do with Icelandic based on course running at the end of last season and, in turn, Icelandic has a poor draw to overcome in the centre. He won last time out tracking the leaders but came from off the pace when behind Il Warrd at Redcar so with trailblazer Tamagin drawn next door he may make his move late and still get into this race? He is a Group 3 winner in Italy. Really struggling to pick one as a main bet, although siding towards Icelandic at the minute.

[bowles10]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March

Rob, the winners of the last 8 runnings at Doncaster have been as follows; 2008 : Drawn 19 of 19 2005 : Drawn 10 of 18 2004 : Drawn 5 of 15 2003 : Drawn 16 of 18 2002 : Drawn 15 of 17 2001 : Drawn 21 of 22 2000 : Drawn 13 of 13 1999 : Drawn 2 of 15

Thanks BH, i had to get these trawling through the results, RP should know better!

[fintron]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March 4.30 Donc At least there is a bit of form to go on in this maiden. Classically should improve for his debut run at Newbury and got better as the race wore on last time. He is a 200,000 guineas half-brother to three winners, including Speciosa and has stamina on the dams side as he steps up from a mile to a mile and a quarter here. He holds an entry in the Tatts Timeform Trophy at Newmarket in April but the one with stronger form claims in my opinion is London Bridge. John Gosden's colt was second in a Newbury maiden in October and made smooth headway before not getting a clear run and meeting with interference. He switched right and ran on well and although beaten by a length, shaped as if a step up in trip would suit and that there would be more to come. 4th and 5th (twice) have won since to boost the form of that race a little and I think he is the one to beat.

[fintron]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March 5.05 Donc Jeer was third behind Expresso Star at Nottingham when last seen and has won off 3 lb higher in the past. He has also gone well on his seasonal debut previously and will appeciate fast ground and see out the trip. he found life tough in handicaps off marks in the 90's last year but ran a bit more encouragingly off this mark last time out when behind a progressive winner and a very good middle-distance performer in Suits Me. Since then he has changed hands for 35,000 Guineas, leaving Ed Dunlop for Mick Easterby in October and I think he will go well at a price (RPF14/1) on his first start for his new trainer. Planetary Motion is an up and coming type that is still learninng his job judging by the way he hung right in the closing stages at Lingfield when making a successful start to his handicap career. He's from the Johnston yard and raised only 3 lbs so could well defy this higher mark on the way to better things as he improves with each run.

[fintron]

Re: Donacster Saturday 28 March 5.40 Donc This looks a tricky race but Trip the Light will benefit from Fredi Tylicki's 5 lb claim and is effectively racing off the same mark as when winning at Redcar in August after the jockey's claim. He handles fast ground, is a distance winner and although disappointed on his last few starts last season, is eased several lbs in the weights. The only question he has to answer is whether he is race sharp returning from a 194 day break but the application of a visor brought about plenty of improvement last term and he may be able to hit the ground running this year now its been established he responds to headgear.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March 3:55 Doncaster: Expresso Star 2pts e/w William Hill 9/2 Although 9/2 may not seem a big price in a twenty two runner handicap I think William Hill may be taking a bit of a chance here. (The Magic sign only go 7/2.) Expresso Star is on a four timer and could not have won easier in his last outing at Nottingham last October. Meets most of trend stats in terms of age, weight, & rating, and favourites have a good record in the race too. The draw is not ideal - but every chance his owner can pick up a nice prize to keep the wolf from the door if her husband is not successful at Nad al Sheba!!

[alexmac]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March But Expresso Star might turn out to be an N/R...

[Stevet1859]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March 3:20 Doncaster: Inxile 2pts e/w 9/1 Ladbrokes The form of his last two races in France read well, a win and a second at Deauville, the latter in a Group 3. David Nicholls is already going well and excells with his sprinters. The draw of 14 should be good, and Inxile runs well up with the pace and should go close here.

[chris34]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March 2.45 Like the each way chances of majuro here has been running nicely over the winter in some tough looking races on the all weather, having been placed every outing so far this year recieves no further hike in handicap for decent run last time out. 0.5pt e/w majuro 3.55 Flipando is another coming here today with some cracking form over the all weather recently, Spencer learnt his lesson from not producing him early enough time before last and he came home very strongly last time out, carying a 5lb penalty for that strong performance, unfortunately spencer not available so makin riding. 1pt e/w Flipando 5.40 Bridgewater boys has run into some nice form again recently and will be far from disgraced here today, no rise in handicap for a recent win and a nice looking 3rd, has won off much higher marks than todays. 1pt win bridgewater boys

[stewartd14]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March

Lincoln Preview

Run over 1 mile, The Lincoln is the traditional curtain raiser for the flat season, and also one of the toughest handicaps of the season.

Key Stats

Look for horses drawn somewhere close to the rails – very tough to overcome a middle draw in recent years.

4 and 5 year olds have the best record in the race.

Those carrying less than 9 stone are favoured.

A large percentage of recent winners won the race on their seasonal bow.

Finding the winner – Trends.

Using the draw stat as our first reference along with a look at the form, I think we can narrow down the field somewhat and discount:

Lady Deauville (drawn 12)

Royal Power (13)

Whistledownthewind (10)

European Dream (14)

Ace of Hearts (11)

I will keep the 8 nearest horses to the rail on either side and also not exclude Expresso Star as he could potentially be good enough to overcome a poor draw.

To briefly analyse the rest of the runners against the stats and try to eliminate some more runners.

Blythe Knight – Age is a problem, weight is a problem, had a run this season.

Swop – Just squeezes into draw stat, weight is a worry.

Eva’s Request – Not a brilliant draw, weight stat is a worry.

Flipando – Age is a big worry, not covered himself in glory on AW.

Bolodenka – Age is a problem, had a run this season, draw isn’t brilliant.

Benandonner – Age isn’t great had a run this season.

So, discounting those along with the 5 from the draw stat, we are left with a shortlist of 11 to analyse the form.

Don’t Panic

Docofthebay

Mia’s Boy

Huzzah

Dream Lodge

Expresso Star

Philario

Cobo Bay

Charm School

Zaahid

Titan Triumph

Finding the winner – Form

Don’t Panic – Peter Chapple Hyamm’s runner is quite difficult to analyse. He covered himself in glory when winning the Spring Mile last year on his seasonal bow. He followed that up with some solid performances in listed races before his form tailed off. I think he was suffering after a long hard season and I would be inclined to forgive his 2 poor runs at the tail end of last season. The horse clearly goes well fresh, but I’m not sure about how well the horse is treated. Won the Spring Mile last year off a rating of 92, and will need to defy a 12 lb hike to take this.

Mia’s Boy – I have had this horse in mind for this race for a while now, and I am still convinced he is going to run a good race. He was one of the most consistent horses in training last year, and ran up a nice sequence. The handicapped punished him for this to the extent he took part in a couple of group races. Like a few others in this field, I feel he had a hard season last year, and is best judged on his form when running fresh. If you bear that in mind he has a solid chance in tomorrow’s Lincoln. Goes well fresh and is very well drawn in

box 20

. Needs rain to show here best form though.

Huzzah – This BarryHills runner is another of those that warrants a second look. This 5 year old was solid last season, including winning her seasonal debut. 1 mile is his trip and he is versatile in terms of the ground. Will improve with age and has to have live claims tomorrow for top trainer BarryHills.

Expresso Star – The likely favourite for this race, and the horse the race revolves around. Potentially, Expresso Star could be very classy and if he runs as expected tomorrow, he could be one of the nicest Lincoln winner’s for years. However, he is short enough to back and you have to wonder whether he is worth taking the prices about. He won 3 on the spin at the tail end of last year by 18 lengths, 5 lengths and 3 lengths. He didn’t beat that much but what he did beat, he beat with conviction. Obviously this is tougher and he hasn’t experienced the hustle and bustle of a race like this before, but he looks the one potentially very classy horse in the race. Rain is a must though and the draw isn’t brilliant. He will need to overcome the middle draw to take the prize.

Philario – Karl Burke quite likes this one as a live outsider for this race and I am inclined to agree with him. When you first glance at his form, it is easy to feel that he would be benefited by shorter distances, but if you look at his form in depth you can see his 2 runs over 1 mile were actually quite decent. His first attempt was behind Banknote (rated 104) and he was only beaten a head after trying to make all. He also beat Abbondanza by 2 ½ lengths that day and he has gone on to win 2 races and finish placed twice in 4 starts since being beaten by Philario and Banknote.

Philario’s 2^nd run over 1 mile came against his elders and he only found one too good in Premio Loco. Premio Loco went on to finish 2^nd in the Winter Derby and is rated 109. This makes Philario’s rating of 97 look very generous. The worry is that he likes to try and win races from the front, but if he is ridden with some restraint, he could take advantage of his lenient handicap mark.

Cobo Bay – 1 mile is his trip and I fancy this one to go close for trainer Kevin Ryan. He had solid form in handicaps as a 3 year old so running in a race such as the Lincoln wont bother him. He will be held up and will no doubt appreciate the strong pace and is drawn to capitalise on any low draw bias against the rails in stall 1. He ran with credit against older horses last year and will improve with age. At 4 he is more than ready to run a big race here.

Charm School – John Gosden’s 2^nd string in this race and possibly a bit of value. They have been evenly matched on the gallops and this one has good form as a 3 year old as well. He has experience in the big fields and will stay further than this mile. Needs rain overnight.

Current shortlist:

Don’t Panic @ 20/1

Mia’s Boy @ 22/1

Huzzah @ 11/1

Expresso Star @ 9/2

Philario @ 50/1

Cobo Bay @ 50/1

Charm School @ 9/1

Will finalise selections when I know about the likelihood of rain

[TOP CAT]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March

3:55 Doncaster: Expresso Star 2pts e/w William Hill 9/2 Although 9/2 may not seem a big price in a twenty two runner handicap I think William Hill may be taking a bit of a chance here. (The Magic sign only go 7/2.) Expresso Star is on a four timer and could not have won easier in his last outing at Nottingham last October. Meets most of trend stats in terms of age, weight, & rating, and favourites have a good record in the race too. The draw is not ideal - but every chance his owner can pick up a nice prize to keep the wolf from the door if her husband is not successful at Nad al Sheba!!

I could not put it any better, if he runs he wins, i think the stable knows hes good the gamble word has got out the yard. ''note jimmy fortune should be watched all day'' they aint going for one win, Gosdon/fortune :dude

[thomo14]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March DONCASTER 16:30 (BOB BEEVERS MEMORIAL MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5)) Horse Name: London Bridge Notes:Eyecatcher 25/10/08 Newbury 1m good to soft class 4 R Havlin weight 9.3 K Abdulla 18/Ran Finished 2nd behind Monitor Closely was riding easily in the middle of the pace got impeded came to the near rail & was giving no room to move when crowded on the rail got in the clear & finished well Only bet of the day J Gosden stable in great form J Fortune rides Betfair 11/10

[TOP CAT]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March Jimmy fortune / John Gosdon all day at Doncaster. Thats the tip fae TC

[Blair Boy]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March 3.55 Ace Of hearts A rather hard race to find any sort of solid looking chances with such a large field of 22 runners I have choosen Ace of Hearts of mainly for a bit of interest in the race, drops down the weights to 8-10 which around that weight seem to have been the past winners in the race. If all goes well should be good for a place but will have a bet to win also. Ace of hearts 32.00 Betfair Ace of hearts to be placed 5.9 Betfair

[Rainbow]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March bond together 210 doncaster. 1 pt win. debutant, but ive been told to watch and follow this fella this season and although he'll certainly come on for this run, I've heard he's worked well enough to thought of as a potential winner of this race. Gone through the cards today and cannot find anything solid, so I'll go with this guy to bring home the bacon.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March 2.45 Manassas 14/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w Quite unexposed here. Only four runs and had already shown good ability. Third in maiden before winning his maiden and then being considered good enough by his trainer to run in a grade 1 and considering his trainer had a few 2 year olds at that stage, ie, Fast Company, that is noteworthy. In the he wasn’t disgraced there nor was he last year in a five runner race when he didn’t get a great run in a race that worked out well. He hasn’t proving himself at this trip, he has clearly had the odd problem to be off after his only run last season but he certainly has lots of potential and 92 could be fair. Middle draw perhaps not ideal though but does give options and pace seems fairly equal. Flawed Genius 33/1 sky 3 pts e.w 5 places A bit speculative this one for a horse who lost his way but if he could find a bit of his old ability he is not out of this with a middle draw for which only time will tell suits or not. FG has had temperament problems as well but at times his form last year was good enough, ie. Effort at hq behind duntulm/perks, unlucky run at hayd., run at asc. His first run on the a.w for his new trainer wasn’t terrible and even though second string, he is not out of it if he is on a going day. Lower stakes as cant be confident. 3.20 Tamagin 16/1 lad 5 pts e.w Not convinced this is a great race and although with something to find on figures, given he is in form and fit, that he likes this track and that Im not convinced he has as much to find as figures suggest, he could out run his price. A bold front runner who is adaptable ground wise and although his turf form perhaps flattened out towards the end of last season, he is fresher now and perhaps able to perform again. His recent runs on the a.w have been good enough and could go close for a long time here. 3.55 Mia’s Boy 20/1 lad 5 pts e.w Probably would like the rain as generally better on softer but then again arguably his best ever effort came on quick ground at York. He was very progressive last year with a string of wins including an effort at York where he picked up a talented stoute horse late on. His form after that wasn’t as good and perhaps the handicap may have found him out but at times he still has run well enough and hasn’t always had the breaks. For example at don he was unlucky imo behind a good sort in virtual and couldn’t get a clean run. Runs after that on the a.w never worked really but back on turf today has a chance although his high draw given most of the pace is seemingly low may not be completely ideal although there are some possible high drawn pace angles. Docofthebay 28/1 lad 5 pts e.w Again the draw isuue as will probably be held up but an interesting record with the race likely to suit. His form on paper isn’t great but thats on the a.w, in Dubai where he didn’t get the clearest of runs at times and back on turf off a mark 6 pounds lower than when he was second in the hunt cup and only 1 pound higher than his good Cambridgeshire second when he came from a long way back, he could go well. Blinkers also restored and they did a good job in the hunt cup first time last season. The big field may just suit his normal late hold up style. 4.30 London Bridge 11/10 sj bog 10 pts10 pts Some unknowns in her but LB has already got some good form in the book. Only one start but that was a good second on his debut when he took the eye. He ran on quite well haven’t not got the clearest of runs and at the time looked a sure fire future winner. The horse who beat him had decent form in a good donc race and in a big sales race both of whom were races that worked out really well and LB’s run behind him only encourages and this maybe a godo opportunity.

[RussP]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March 2.45 Doncaster The Spring Mile attracts a field of 21, for this Class 2 handicap over the straight course. In a field of this competitiveness, there is no way I could be taking 4/1 about any fav, so I'm opposing that as well as some of the other fancied types. It would be no shock to see an outsider win and my money is heading in that direction with: The Osteopath (25/1 >Betfred) - Drawn 15 here so should be ok to tack over to the stands rail here so no major worries on that front. In here off a mark of 87 so will need to improve to score but I'm pretty hopeful that this horse is capable of that. No stranger to going well in big fields, having finished a nose 2nd of 23 on its last start at Redcar at 25/1, whilst winning first time up last term at 22/1 in a field of 18. Best form on straight tracks too so this mile at Donny should suit perfectly. May prefer a bit of cut so any rain would help but will still go well on genuine good ground. Trainer is 1/1 in the last fortnight so no concerns on the wellbeing of the horses. Record first time up for this horse is 3rd at 12's, 3rd at 33's, 3rd at 7's and 1st at 22's. A repeat of that would be nice! Ok, the horse has to overcome its highest ever mark and races in a quality race but, at 25's, is way overpriced and should go really well. 3.55 Doncaster The Lincoln and a quality field assembled for this Class 2 handicap. A maximum field of 22 take their chance and John Gosden could be the key to this handicap with the 2 front runners in the market trained by him. Admittedly, they could go on to pattern company but I'm not prepared to take a chance at their current odds and would much rather have a horse at double figure odds. Crucial to this race is the draw and I'm concentrating on those drawn a max of 6 off either rail. Most of the pace is low and, to this end, I'm narrowing the race to those drawn 1-6. I wouldn't discount Benandonner, Blythe Knight or Dream Lodge, all at decent odds, but the one for me is: Zaahid (11/1 >William Hill) - Great chance today. Was 4th in the Spring Mile last year when all the rage for the Lincoln before missing the cut. However, I'm not sure the horse was fully wound up for that. Today is the ideal chance for compensation and it has conditions firmly in its favour. Drawn 2 which is a cracking berth and has plenty of pace to tow the horse along. This horse needs a lot of coaxing and has the ideal man in the saddle to encourage this. Gets in here off a nice mark of 96 and is slowly easing back to last winning mark. Started last term well finishing 4th here, before 3rd of 17 at Newbury and then winning at Ascot in a field of 22. Not so good since but showed promise on its last start when 11th of 29 back at Ascot where the race was not ideal, poor draw and not a clear run. Goes well fresh and should come off this strong pace, I expect this horse to be right in the mix for the big honours. 5.05 Doncaster Another big field of 20 line up for this Class 4 handicap over 1m2f. Another warm fav in this at 9/2 but it's not a price I'd take in a field of this size. On the round course, I prefer to stick to horse drawn low to middle and the one I like from near the top of the weights is: Veiled Applause (14/1 Stan James) - Can be a frustrating sort with 8 career 2nd's but in the first 2 on turf in 50% of its races so it's certainly a capable type. Only one race here and finished 2nd of 15 to Best Prospect last term so track suits. Has had 2 pipe openers on the AW to put it spot on for this and comes here off the same mark as when last seen on turf, a Class 3 race at Ripon when 2nd of 11 at 16's. Has an excellent with this jockey on board when racing over 10f on turf and a repeat of those efforts will see this horse go very well indeed. 4 starts and has finished 2nd of 15 at 11/1 in Cl 4 off 77, 1st of 11 at 9/2 in Cl 4 off 79, 5ht of 18 at 8/1 in Cl 3 off 85 (only 1L back) and 2nd of 11 at 16/1 in Cl 3 off todays mark of 83. Any ease in ground would be nice and from a nice draw of 9, I expect this horse to be challenging inside the last at very rewarding EW odds.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.55 Doncaster
Selection	Expresso Star
Strength	10/10
Date	28/03/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 5.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Competitive race and it may well be risky taking a short price about this horse but he looks different class from this field in my opinion. John Gosden has already started the season well and he looks to have a seriously well handicapped horse in his hands here. Would prefer softer ground but the rain has got into it a little bit over night and that can only help. I cannot have him beaten and 4/1 will do me.

[PL2008]

Re: Doncaster Saturday 28 March DONCASTER 2:10 Isle Of Ellis 20-1 RPF EW Trainer and jockey combo of Robert Winston and A J McCabe did well for the AW season. They had 13 wins from 48 runs at +43.50lsp. It might be a good idea to get a TJ combo with a high strike rate for this type of race. 1PT @ 25-1 BET365 BOG