Plumpton 23/3/09

[fintron]

5.20 Plumpton 8 contest the £3,757 prize. All have winning form around the 26f trip - Freeze Up (27f), Ibberton (24f), Eurocelt (24f), Amoreigh (26f), Pavarottis Brother (24f), Prey Bird (26f), Touch of Fate (26f) and Strolling Vagabond (28f). Freeze Up is 13 lbs higher than when winning at Fontwell in December and this lightly raced 7 yo doesn't have many miles on the clock and is thus open to further improvement with only two chase starts to his name. However, he did pull up over course and distance in December and for that reason I just cannot justify backing him at 7/4, regardless of trainer reputation. Ibberton runs off 104 here and that is 16 lbs higher than his last winning mark, which was from at Chepstow in Nov '07. He did manage a decent place over course and distance just before Christmas off only 2 lb lower but after pullling up on his last two starts I'm passing over. Eurocelt is 25/1 here and is yet to win a chase handicap. He won a beginners chase at Towcester last May and has at least been completing. However, his last race came in selling company so he is passed over. Amoreigh is a three time course and distance winner that has has done all of his winning here. Peter Bowen's veteran has been raised 4 lbs for winning here in February and although has never won off anything that high, at least is proven at the track. The slight worry about him is the ground, as he likes to get his toe in, but at the price I think he is worth a punt. Pavarottis Brother won a point to point almost a year ago and although he wasn't beaten far in a novices handicap over course and distance in November, has something to prove after pulling up the last twice. Prey Bird won a hunters chase at Folkestone last May on GF ground so may be more suited to these conditions than some. He was beaten by 8 lengths by Sesame Rambler on his debut over fences last time out but is dropped 4 lb in the weights here. He kept on right the way to the line last time out and off this revised rating I think he can give a good account as one of the least exposed performers in the field. Touch of Fate was a course and distance winner in Oct '05 but has failed to win since. Although he will relish the ground he pulled up returning from a lengthy absence last time out so is passed over. Strolling Vagabond has won off 21 lb higher in the past but has gone a long time without winning now. To be fair, he did show improvement over course and distance earlier in the month for the first time since the handicapper slashed his rating and he wasn't beaten far by Pass The Port. He isn't the most reliable and has often failed to complete but at the price I'll back him as a small saver as he is undeniably well handicapped if having a good day. Suggested bets: Amoreigh - 11/2 Blue Sq, 0.45 pt Prey Bird - 10/3 Will Hill, 0.45 pt Strolling Vagabond - 9/1 Will Hill, 0.1 pt

[jcosgrove]