Fintron's Jumps Thread - 2010/11

[fintron]

I know this is stating the obvious but in handicap chases over 3m+ it really is an advantage to have previous form over that distance or further. I have looked at 50 handicap chases run between January and March this year and looked for several things: 1. Does a horses position in the handicap indicate it is more likely to win (as is the case on the AW with horses from the top of the handicap faring best)? 2. Is there a price band of runners that win more frequently than others? 3. Is previous winning form over the distance or further a prerequisite? 1. Firstly, in h'cap chases of 3m+ horses seemed to win from all over the handicap in the following orders: 1st (top rated) - 8 2nd - 4 3rd - 4 4th - 4 5th - 9 6th - 2 7th - 9 8th - 3 9th - 3 10th - 1 11th - 2 12th -1 In some cases there may have only been 6 or 7 runners and in such races it would have been impossible for a horse 10th in the handicap to win etc, but even so, the results above to me suggest there is no advantage to starting from any certain position in the handicap. At the same time, however, the results also suggest that it is not a disadvantage to carry top weight in a race. Take the Kim Muir at the Festival the other day for example, Character Building, in a field of 24 runners, carried 11-12 around on his way to victory. I also noticed a couple of horses winning from outside of the handicap. On the flat I would ignore such horses in the main, but here, will not. 2. With regards to price the winners could be grouped as follows: Up to 2/1: 8 9/4 - 4/1: 11 9/2 - 6/1: 10 13/2 - 10/1: 10 11/1+: 11 Horses are winning these staying chases from all across the market but I looked to see what the going was for those horses priced at 11/1+. It was as follows: Gd/Sft: 4 Sft: 1 Hvy: 6 So, as is commonly said, when the rain falls, the formbook goes out of the window a little, and large priced outsiders are more likely to go in. The exact prices of the 11 outsiders were 16/1, 12/1, 20/1, 12/1, 11/1, 14/1, 18/1, 14/1, 11/1, 25/1, 12/1 - the ones in bold are the ones with heavy ground. I also looked to see if the big priced winners occurred in large fields - when the races were very competitive and there were plenty of juicy outsiders available. The average field size for the 11 outsider winners was 13.27 and all but two of the outsider victories came in double figure fields. I think it is fair to say that in small fields the rags win far less often. Taking into account single figure fields only the prices of the winners are grouped as follows: up to 2/1: 5 9/4 to 4/1: 9 9/2 - 6/1: 2 13/2 - 10/1: 7 11/1+: 2 (11/1 and 12/1) So in small fields I will try to stay away from the big priced outsiders if possible, unless the going is heavy. In double figure fields, however, I will be open to backing horses at any price, especially if the going is heavy. 3. Is a horse is proven over the distance is it more likely to win? Of the 50 winners, 30 had won over the distance or further compared to 20 that had not. However, it is interesting to note that of those 20, 11 had won over a distance up to three furlongs below the distance they were contesting (e.g. had won over 24f for a 27f race etc) and that statistic of 82 % of runners having winning form up to a distance within 3f of the distance they are contesting seems quite decent to me. In the cases where a horse had not won within 3f of the distance in question, four had not won at all, and the other five were contesting marathon trips (numbers are distance of the race and the bracketed number is the dist over which they are proven) - 31f (22f), 33f (25f), 29f (24f), 30f (26f), 32f (25f). I think what we can basically deduce from this is that if a horse has not won over a distance of 3 miles or more, do not include it in analysis and if the race in question is over a marathon trip of around 30f+ then be a bit more lenient and still include horses if they have shown a tendency to stay by winning over a distance of at least 3m.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Jumps Thread - 3m+ H'Cap Chases These are the first lot of selections so we'll see how they get on. Just 10p stakes for me for now whilst I am trialling this as we go along! 3.35 Carlisle There are only six runners in the field and Teasured Memories (25f), Baker Flynn (24f) and Ikemba (26f) are the ones that have winning form around this 26f trip. However, Ikemba pulled up on his only start over fences so is ignored returning from a lengthy break. Treasured Memories has fallen on two of his four starts over larger obstacles and has been thrashed in handicaps recently. Even after another drop in his rating I can't back him at the tissue 7/2. Baker Flynn is an Irish import but remains a maiden after 13 starts under rules. I can't back him either. All three look dire in a terrible race, so a no bet in this! No bet 4.40 Carlisle