Lingfield 14/3/09

[fintron]

2.30 Bernabeu faced a stiff task running off 8-13 in a Kempton claimer last time out as he was getting only 5-8 lbs from the three horses infront of him, even though they were officially rated 11lbs, 21 lbs and 24 lbs his superior. He penultimate run in a class 6 apprentice handicap showed he is able to run to around a mark of 53 and given that he is a course winner and can see out the trip I think a better showing can be expected today. Sunset Boulevard was a handicap winner in January and looks to be fairly rated at 61 so could still be up to the task of giving weight away to all bar one of these. He is a course and distance winner and has been holding his form well. he was 2 lb wrong with Mark Prescott's winner last time out in a claimer and did what was expected on those terms to finish second, and he had Turner's Touch well behind that day. The latter gets an extra 5 lbs from Sunset Boulevard here but has gone a long time without winning and their respective positions in the market seem understandable. A no bet race for me but I expect Bernabeu to chase home Sunset Boulevard.

[fintron]

Re: Lingfield 14/3/09 3.00 Flying Lady is best in at the weights and would be getting 4 lbs less from Hold The Bucks in a handicap. However, she has been out of form from some time and at the price I would like more guarantees that her last time out effort was not a one off. She did well to finish second to Common Diva on those terms and the drop in class clearly helped, but she is yet to win over either this trip or track so there are too many negatives for me to take 9/4 personally. Hold The Bucks is vying for joint favouritsm and is reliable sort in this grade. He did pick up a nursery handicap off 63 in December and I think he is still improving slightly, even though the majority of his subsequent runs have been in plating races. His second to Kiyari looks a fair effort last time out and he is always in and around the places. As a CD winner he is less of a gamble than the Mick Channon horse and I think he is the most likely winner with perhaps Jamie Osbourne's Fantastic Fred the only other one to worry about. He was a handicap winner off 57 two starts ago and has the potential for improvement. However, he has to put behind him a disappointing effort last time out and down to reliability, Hold The Bucks is my bet. 9/4 widely avail