Uttoxeter - Saturday 14th March 09

[mowgli77]

Following on from comments in Bowles' Trends thread regarding filters etc I thought I'd use some stats to narrow down the field in the Midlands National and see what we end up with. I'm not one to go solely with trends/stats normally but I want to see if the filters I use here are effective. Firstly the winners of this race over the last 10 years have been aged 7,8 or 9 so out go any horses not in this age range. From 2000 to 2008 the heaviest weight a horse has carried to victory was 10-9 so I made the cut off point slightly higher at 10-12 for these selections and out go the heavier horses near the top of the handicap, needs to be some performance to lug big weight around 4m +. Next I looked at horses that have won or placed over 3m+, if the horse has not achieved this then out it goes. Finally I have decided to only go for horses that have a win/place ratio to runs of 50% or more on the chosen soft ground, some are unproven on the ground, others don't seem to go on it too well. I was left with 4 horses and best prices are in brackets: Gidam Gidam (12-1 Bet 365) Appleaday (14-1 Blue Square) Russian Trigger (12-1 Bet 365) Beat The Boys (16-1 Paddy Power) I'm hoping Bowles and JTW1 also look at trends/stats for this race so we can compare notes tomorrow. :ok Suggestion would be 10pts WIN or 5pts EW on the above 4 horses dependant on how you like to bet.

[jtw1]

Re: Uttoxeter - Saturday 14th March 09 Wasn't going to do anymore until the flat but the Cheltenham bug has bitten deep :beer and i had already taken a look at this race , then i notice that MOWGLI has highlighted it !! so heres my tuppence worth ;) MOWGLI has highlighted the Age , Weight [rating ] and winning form over 3m as the most obvious trends and they get rid of quite a few of the field. I would also state that the starting price of the past 8 winners has been 16/1 or UNDER with a respectable 3 Favs winning in that period and also that in 7 out of 8 runnings the winner has ran at least 4 times that season. In 7 out of 8 the winner has also won at least once that season and all of those wins were within their previous 4 outings . When i put in those stats i came up with 3 of MOWGLI's 4 selections BEAT THE BOYS has only had 3 runs and not won any of those so i personally would discount that one . My 4 to consider are - Gidam Gidam Appleaday Russian Trigger Kilcrea Asla I can see why MOWGLI has discounted Kilcrea Asla as it would appear to prefer Good going to have an increased chance of winning . I agree with this , even though the forecast is for Dry /Sunny spells with a brisk wind , UTTOXETER's ground can become quite sticky and would take more dry weather for Kilcrea Asla to have it's preferred going imo. RUSSIAN TRIGGER has won his 4 races on Right-Handed tracks and when tried Left-Handed it finished 7th + 11th beaten over 20 lengths in both. That leaves us with GIDAM GIDAM with an eye-catching booking of Barry GERAGHTY and APPLEADAY . An EW bet on both for me :hope