Understanding the strength of form in a race...

[jcosgrove]

How do you guys approach this ? I generally would look at a few things. I'd look at how the runners in that race have run since, if possible. I'd look at the time of the race in comparison to others on that day, preferably over same c/d but if not I would make comparisons with how far over standard time they were. I'd also look at horses that have run well if there trainers weren't having much luck at the time or horses. If a handicap I would look at the distances won by and how easily they won, to try and put some kind of marker on how much they had in hand, which is pretty impossible to work out. I just want to become more thorough and would like to hear your views. I bet on National Hunt mainly so don't really analyse draws and such like...

[fintron]

Re: Understanding the strength of form in a race... I am the opposite to you jcosgrove, I look mainly at flat races, particularly the AW but use the same approach, looking to see how many subsequent winners have come out of the race. I do this on Sporting Life as it is quicker than the RP but I have recently started to use the ATR site more, and they also give an easy indication of the strength of the form in the shape of a bar and star system - gold star if the form is strong, silver for fairly strong etc. They give you details of how many runners have won since and whether those wins have come in higher grades etc. Using this site saves time, but I still stick with SL in the main for looking at other factors as well.. I look to see if any of those runners that finished either side of the horse have won since and try to put their performances, off their new marks, in context with the new mark of the horse in question. In a nursery handicap example, when young horses can improve sharply, if horse A beat horse B by a neck, both ran off 70, and horse A has won off say 74 next time out then I would regard horse B to be well handicapped running off a mark of around 74 too. I also look at the distances to see if it was a blanket finish or if they were all strung out. I like to look for horses finishing close up to horses which I regard as reliable yardsticks for the grade - horses that consistently finish around the places over similar sort of races - as you get a good indication of the level the horse has run to then. If those horses finishing close by are inconsistent then i regard the form as questionable and ignore. I look at race times to see whether the race was run at a decent pace. If I am researching a hold up horse then I can forgive it a poor placing if the race was run at a pace below the course standard, and conversely, if the race was run at a true pace and the horse made no impact then I will cross a line though it, unless it encountered traffic trouble.