Just how hard is it to find Cheltenham winners?

[billy the punter]

So far this week I've heard a lot of my friends say how they will be "taking it easy at Cheltenham" and that you "cannot win" and that the week should be seen as a "bit of fun". I've done well there in the past as I tend to stake a lot more on the non-handicap races. I really think this is key to making a profit over the week. The handicaps are almost impossible and I'm not sure if I've even backed a handicap hurdle winner in my life there. It's been my belief though that the non-handicap races tend to go to form with shocks few and far between. Now I'm not sure if it's just selective memory so I'm looking into some figures. Everything will be based on the last 10 runnings. Champion Hurdle Average price of winner 8.3/1 Average position in the market 3.2 (3rd fav) 60% of winners were 9/2 or lower World Hurdle Average price of winner 8.9/1 Average position in the market 3.5 70% of winners were 11/2 or lower Triump Hurdle Average price of winner 10.3/1 Average position in the market 4.6 60% of winners were 9/1 or lower 50% of winners were 1st or 2nd fav Supreme Novices Hurdle Average price of winner 11.1/1 Average position in the market 4.1 70% of the winners were 10/1 or lower 80% of the winners were 1st-5th favs 60% of the winnere were 1st or 2nd favs (one of the four that wasn't was just 0.5pt away from being co-fav) Arkle Average price of winner 13/2 Average position in the market 3.4 100% of winners were 11/1 or less 90% of winners were 1st-5th favs RSA Average price of winner 11.2/1 Average position in the market 4.8 50% of winners were 5/1 or less 60% of winners were 1st-4th favs Queen Mother Average price of winner 4.1/1 Average position in the market 2.2 80% of winners were 7/2 or less 90% of winners were 5/1 or less (there were fancied fallers the other year) 90% of winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd fav 80% of winners were 1st or 2nd fav Gold Cup Average price of winner 6.99/1 Average position in the market 3.2 80% of winners were 15/2 or lower 80% of winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd favs Ryanair Chase (4 runnings so far) Average price of winner 4/1 Average position in the market 2 100% of winners were 9/2 or lower 100% of winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd favs Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (previously RSA Novices Hurdle) Average price of winner 7.9/1 Average position in the market 3.5 70% of the winners were 17/2 or lower 80% of winners were 1st-4th favs Ok, I think that's all the non-handicap races that have been going long enough. So... Non-handicap Races Average price of winner 7.9/1 Average position in the market 3.45 You really shouldn't be looking outside the first three or four in the betting for any of these races, bar possibly the RSA Chase. Not saying you should only look towards the head of the market but if you fancy something in the non-handicap races that is well fancied then you can up-stake, compared to what you will have on for the Coral Cup for example. Will see how this compares to handicaps. Obviously handicaps will be tougher but it will be interesting to see if the difference is as huge as I believe it is. Will hopefully get the time to look at them over the next day or so.

[TOP CAT]

Re: Just how hard is it to find Cheltenham winners? I have a few good mates who at this time of the year ''every year'' think it all looks so easy, i just think the older you get the wizer you get, chelt is a very hard race course for winners, the roar, the ground, the jockeys, just everything is diffrent, you watch the way a jockey rides at chelt and wonder why they dont ride like that all the time, its a hard place to win, ive had mates that talk it up for months and dont see ''day 2'' cos it all went wrong and not to plan, other people have said it and ive said it, anything can happen, it just takes one bad mistake at any fence and that dead cert is beat, god i cant wait the buzz there must be awsome, i need to go before i die.