The Mathematical Approach

[billy the punter]

sean's post about an open-ended straight flush draw reminded me of something I wrote a a couple of years ago or so... ---- I believe that certain people will always take the mathmatical approach. Is this the huge mistake I personaly think it is? There was a time, when I would usually take the math option at all times, I was a keen maths student all my life, I refused to see past odds etc. However, I was inexperienced at poker then and over the years my experience and skills grew and I started to totally disagree with this theory. But there can be no universal rule for all. I believe the better the player the less risks they should take - most will agree there. Ability must be a factor with these decesions, but also bankroll. Now I know a lot will say that bankrolls should be irrelevant when making such choices, and that you shouldn't be under pressure by playing higher than your should, or buying in for a tournament with money you cannot afford to lose - blah blah blah. I'm a realist. People sit in games they shouldn't - fact. I have, a lot. I've never sat out of my depth ability wise, but there were times when I have done financially - and I knew a lot of good pro players who have done the same. As a result, bankroll, as well as skill, must come into contention when making these marginal/mathmatical decesions at the table. A quick example, I'm sitting in a game I can cope with ability wise no problem, but financially, at THIS moment, I probably shouldn't be playing - I'm hoping my ability to the opposition overcomes this. It's £10/£20 pot limit, I'm sitting with £4000 which is average. It's early, I'm level. There's been a straddle, there's been a raise, there's already 4 in the pot and it's £120 to me on the button with . I call. Flop comes Raise, reraise, it's £2800 to me. Crumbs. What to do. I know I'm odds on vs nearly all hands. I'm what? 55% fav, maybe? Probably? If I was sitting with another ten large in my pocket then it's a pretty easy play - but I'm not. So I pass. Why call? I may as well go to the Vic and stick the 4g on red or black and be home in time for X Factor. Now I know many will say that is what happens when you play too big financially, and I understand this. However, say if I win 80% of the time I sit in this game, therefore there is an 80% chance of me making money if I pass here. Calling (and making the correct mathmatical decesion) I'm much less than 80% to make money. Is it still mathmatically correct to call then? After all, I'm one of those who'd be saying "Deal Noel" when offered £80,000 grand with only the 1p and the £250,000 left. I don't care about the odds, I wrote the book on odds, I'm biting his hand off for eighty large as I honestly believe there is a massive chance I can turn the eighty into a quarter of a mil anyway. Although I promise you if I was in this position I wouldn't spend the whole 45mins prior pretending I was mates with the other 21, what's that all about? Every day the same, what are they, the nicest people in the world every time? So, most will agree that it doesn't always suit certain individuals to take the slight mathmatical edges, but can it ever be correct to pass a BIG mathmatical edge, where the odds are massively in your favour? Well imagine this, you have £100 to your name, you can't pull up anything else to next week and you can't borrow. At 5pm today I will offer you 10/1 on heads when I flip a regular fifty pence piece, min bet £100. You have to take me up on that right? Well what if I'm offering 100/1 at 7pm on the same bet? How does that 10/1 look now? I know this is taking it to the extreme, but it proves for some there can always a better time to gamble, and after all, timing is everything in this game. -------- Like I say this is a good couple of years old and the game in question would be a couple of years before that even. Playing "streched" in games is something I've not done for a long, long time but I still agree with plenty of what I wrote. I don't even play in this game now by the way. This is a prime example that bankroll is important with such decisions., that said even if I was sitting comfortably (financially) I would still pass. I just don't like calling away money with marginal hands, no matter how small the % of my role.

[SteveO]

Re: The Mathmatical Approach Good write up Bill but I dont like your deal or no deal analogy. I too would take the 80K it's a one off game and it's free money I don't give a **** what's in the other box 80K for fcuk all yes thank you very much. If you are bankrolled you have to take the gamble you mentioned above if you feel that your flush draw is live as it's +EV or otherwise you're a big dog. I understand very much why you folded though.