2good4u Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan 2good4u: I'm not 100% certain my calculations (as implemented in the program) is correct. But i think you got it the wrong way around. If he has a 30% S/R, then for every bet there is a 70% risk that he loses. In order for him to have 8 consecutive losses, he would have to hit that 70% 8 times: 0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7* = 0.7^8 = 0.057 = 5.7% risk of having 8 lost bets in a row Hi Hooloovoo, we went deep into math :lol but I really would like to clear it up and to see where I was wrong (if I was) I got this the same way you did and then I put (1-0.057)^43 and got 0.077833 which is 7.7% not to have 8 lost in a row=92.2% to have it. The number 43 in the above formula is number of bets needed to have 13 winners with the strike rate of 30% i think you forgot to add ^ to the number of bets needed for each particular strike rate. The formula I use is a standard formula for calculating probs for any outcome depending of number of tries/bets/coin tosses. For example the chance to have 4 lost bets in a row out of 50 bets with the strike rate of 50% is: 0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5=0.0625. Then (1-0.0625)^50=0.0396 which means 3.96% chance not to have it=96.03% to have 4 lost bets in a row. Does this sound reasonable to you? Regards, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan ...I got this the same way you did and then I put (1-0.057)^43 and got 0.077833 which is 7.7% not to have 8 lost in a row=92.2% to have it. The number 43 in the above formula is number of bets needed to have 13 winners with the strike rate of 30% Well, i still think you got it a bit mixed up. :unsure He needs 13 successful bets to double up, we can call these "ordinary bets". We can call the string of bets needed to have one ordinary bet a success for a "sequence". Then, a sequence can be 1-8 bets, depending on the where the winner arrives. What is the probability for a successful sequence? For a sequence to be successful, we must have at least one (1) winner among the 8 bets. With a strike rate of 30%, each bet has a 30% chance of winning (duh!) Each bet thus have 70% probability to lose. The probability of "all 8 bets losing" is 0.7^8 = 0.057 = 5.7% The sequence stops when we have a winner, so there are a a number of other probabilities, such as W, LW, LLW, LLLW, LLLLW, LLLLLW, LLLLLLW and LLLLLLW, but the above figure (5.7%) is really all we need to know. The probability of NOT "all 8 bets losing" is 1 - 0.057 = 0.943 = 94.3% So, an ordinary bet have a 94.3% chance of success. This percentage is the combined probability of all the cases in green above. Then, the probability for 13 ordinary successful bets in a row is 0.943^13 = 0.466 = 46.6% I think you are mixing up the probabilities for a successful sequence, and the probability for 13 successful "ordinary bets" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan gone? a real tragedy if so. Please tell us you missed putting some bets on Andy :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2good4u Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Well, i still think you got it a bit mixed up. :unsure He needs 13 successful bets to double up, we can call these "ordinary bets". We can call the string of bets needed to have one ordinary bet a success for a "sequence". Then, a sequence can be 1-8 bets, depending on the where the winner arrives. What is the probability for a successful sequence? For a sequence to be successful, we must have at least one (1) winner among the 8 bets. With a strike rate of 30%, each bet has a 30% chance of winning (duh!) Each bet thus have 70% probability to lose. The probability of "all 8 bets losing" is 0.7^8 = 0.057 = 5.7% The sequence stops when we have a winner, so there are a a number of other probabilities, such as W, LW, LLW, LLLW, LLLLW, LLLLLW, LLLLLLW and LLLLLLW, but the above figure (5.7%) is really all we need to know. The probability of NOT "all 8 bets losing" is 1 - 0.057 = 0.943 = 94.3% So, an ordinary bet have a 94.3% chance of success. This percentage is the combined probability of all the cases in green above. Then, the probability for 13 ordinary successful bets in a row is 0.943^13 = 0.466 = 46.6% I think you are mixing up the probabilities for a successful sequence, and the probability for 13 successful "ordinary bets" Hi again, I think we have used enough room on ANDY's thread for this discussion, so I will be really short. I am sure that you must involve in calculations the number of bets needed for a particular strike rate, otherwise it makes no sense! It cannot be the same for 50, 100, or 1000 bets, wouldn't you agree? I do not know why you go 0.943^13 instead ^ number of bets? Anyway, I have my formula, you have yours :rollin but I am still going to check this with some friends who are more into math than me. At the end: try applying your formula to the strike rate of 12.5% and check the results. According to my calculations, it means 13 winners out of 104 bets made (12.5% SR). Now, the chance for 8 lost in a row according to me is 99.9999...% because there is only 1 possible combination for otherwise LLLLLLLW and then again like that 12 more times :eek Regards, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan gone? a real tragedy if so. Please tell us you missed putting some bets on Andy :hope Well he missed the remaining bets in the last cycle, so maybe he just gave up :( It was unlucky though, i really think it can be profitable given a high enough strike rate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan I think we have used enough room on ANDY's thread for this discussion Agreed :) I have my formula' date=' you have yours [/quote'] Agreed again :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 23, 2009 Share Posted March 23, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan There seems to be a bit of confusion here, I may be wrong but in an effort to find common ground :- I am sure that you must involve in calculations the number of bets needed for a particular strike rate, otherwise it makes no sense! It cannot be the same for 50, 100, or 1000 bets, wouldn't you agree? Yes the probabilities of a losing run increases the larger the number of bets. The trouble is this is a stop start staking plan. The sequence stops when we have a winner, so there are a a number of other probabilities, such as W, LW, LLW, LLLW, LLLLW, LLLLLW, LLLLLLW and LLLLLLW, but the above figure (5.7%) is really all we need to know. Hoo has calculated the probabilities over the maximum bets needed to complete a sequence, it then starts over again. The bottom line appears to be that as long as the strike rate is 31% or greater then this staking system will be profitable, although I doubt a doctor would recommend it :loon. With the last 8 bets losing the strike rate is now 32%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 24, 2009 Share Posted March 24, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Andy are you going to continue to post ? .... we don't bite or gloat ....were all in this together helping one another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 25, 2009 Share Posted March 25, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan One failed attempt doesn't mean that it is not profitable. I do believe that Andy put too much of his "betting bank" at risk for the 1st attempt, i wouldn't use more than 5% for each cycle bank, and i think we can safely assume that £5000 is not 5% in this case... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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