ANDYMC10 Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Thanks Bedlam, another good weekend with another 2 cycles passed , so 6 down and 7 to go to double the money. CYCLE 5 FIRST BET WILL BE €153.40 Bet 1 Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen Sat 2.30 €153.40 at 23/10 with betfred Result 0-0 WIN NEW BANK €6,548.64 CYCLE 6 Bet 1 Toulouse v Bordeaux 6pm Sat €162.14 at 21/10 with Betfred Result 3-0 Lost Bet 2 Lecce v Reggina Sun 2pm€234.20 at 21/10 with VC Result 0-0 WIN New Bank €6,878.32 CYCLE 7 Bet 1 Getafe v Malaga Sun 8pm €170.30 at 9/4 with betfred Result 1-2 LOST SUMMARY Starting bank €5,000 Current Bank €6,708.02 Profit €1,708.02 Bets 10 Draws 6 Strike Rate 60% Longest Run without a draw = 2 games Now on CYCLE 7 Bet 2 Next Bet will be €245.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan CYCLE 7 Bet 2 €245.99 on Man Utd v Inter Milan Draw at 5/2 with PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Bet 2 €245.99 on Man Utd v Inter Milan Draw at 5/2 with PP Result 2-0 LOST Bet 3 €355.32 on Dynamo Kiev v Metalist Kharkiv 5pmat 12/5 with PP Bet 4 Decided by result of Bet 3 if bet 3 loses €513.24 on Udinese v Zenit 7.45pm at 9/4 with Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 12, 2009 Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Getting nervous Andy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 13, 2009 Author Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Hi Bedlam no not nervous, if I got to 7 losers in a row then ask me. The whole idea of the system is that you can have 7 losers in a row so I am not worried. Bet 3 €355.32 on Dynamo Kiev v Metalist Kharkiv 5pm at 12/5 with PP Result 1-0 LOST Bet 4 Decided by result of Bet 3 if bet 3 loses €513.24 on Udinese v Zenit 7.45pm Result 2-0 Lost Bet 5 €741.34 on Drogheda v Bray Friday 7.45pm at 12/5 with Skybet Bet 6 €1,070.83 on Man Utd v Liverpool 12.45pm Sat at 23/10 with PP Bet 7 €1,546.75 on Hull v Newcastle 3pm Sat at 9/4 with PP Bet 8 €2,234.56 on Aston Villa v Tottenham 4pm Sun at 23/10 with PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted March 13, 2009 Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Great strike :) I am amazed and I really do :hope. However, I believe that the best system is a system that do not depends of punter's picking skills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 13, 2009 Share Posted March 13, 2009 Good luck with your recovery bets! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 13, 2009 Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan However' date=' I believe that the best system is a system that do not depends of punter's picking skills.[/quote'] Please explain! for most punters, picking skills are vital Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob41 Posted March 13, 2009 Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Hi Andy I'm a relatively new visitor to this forum and have been watching your suggestions. You were unlucky yesterday with Udinese but struck it right again with Drogheda v Bray. Keep up the great work. Dave :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted March 14, 2009 Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Andy, i will follow this as i back draws too and i have a similar method of choosing them. Been doing it for 15 years so believe me when i say i had a run of 19 without a draw even after being disciplined. 3 points. Avoid the martingale route and keep returning to the original after banking. Avoid low prices on European games, bookies generally give 2/1 on French games not only because there are more draws but because people in the UK back them as they dont really care who wins. Value is still key. Use Betfair in the live games to lay off late on if you have a lot of risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Drogheda 0 Bray 0 Back on track I will update full results on Monday. I have been doing this for 6 months and my longest losing run was 6 so I am confident that I can avoid the 8 losers in a row, a lot depends on the quality of your picks I am now over half way to doubling the money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 14, 2009 Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Please explain! for most punters' date=' picking skills are [b']vital Hi Bedlam, I hope I'm not jumping in here before sjuesju can answer but it's a good question to an astute statement. Andy's draw system is producing the goods nicely :notworthy but because of the staking system in use, it's weighting greater importance on an individual result than usual as the losing run progresses. Andy has said that in case of a losing run he will get more disciplined and more selective, which is fine in principle ..... BUT .... you just can't force results to happen ..... each selection is a unique entity it's not affected by past or future outcomes. All you can do in this game, is to put the probablilities in your favour and let the results happen, this staking system is putting added pressure on those probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nubby Posted March 14, 2009 Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Great strike :) I am amazed and I really do :hope. However' date=' I believe that the best system is a system that do not depends of punter's picking skills.[/quote'] let me jump in aswell. i think hes totaly right. i would class this as a staking system. i think he means the best system would contain parameters/rules so you are not choosing the bets yourself, the system is choosing the bets for you. so instead of looking at match stats and picking a team that you personaly think will win. you will base your picks on what rules/parameters the system is set to. therefore 100 people could use these rules and pick the same teams. as if you just used a staking plan and chose your own bets to use with that staking plan then most people would pick diffrent matchs. and nice going andy. could you please let us know how much money you bet that last cycle and how much you won. also. i really hope you can double your bank so you can withdraw your stake. and its nothing personal but i then hope you loose that money after the stake is withdrawn to show just how dangerous this stake system really is. just becuase you have tested this for a year and have never got past 6 loosing games does not mean it wont happen. i would sugest removing your oringinal 5,000 and putting it back in the bank so you can not be tempted to bet it and then play with the money you have won so far. the bets will be for less but if your truely belive you can do this then you will back up to your 5,000 starting bank quickly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Hull 1 Newcastle 1 Another Cycle achieved now on to Cycle 9 - 5 to go to double the money I will update full results on Monday. On to Villa v Spurs tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob41 Posted March 14, 2009 Share Posted March 14, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Hi Andy Cracking tipping again. Quite superb. Can you tell us what your bank now stands at and what the stake should be for the Villa v Spurs game please. Cheers again Dave :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 15, 2009 Share Posted March 15, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan so sjuesju's criticism is of the staking system? Like most other posters, I expect Andy to hit a run of 8 losses sooner or later, but I must applaud his picking skills & his confidence. I too hope he doubles his bank, as I'd hate to see this thread end abruptly, because think his picking method has potential with a few tweaks on the staking front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 16, 2009 Author Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan CYCLE 7 Bet 5 €741.34 on Drogheda v Bray Friday 7.45pm at 12/5 with Skybet Result 0-0 WIN €1,779.22 New Bank €7,372.70 CYCLE 8 Bet 1 €182.50 on Man Utd v Liverpool 12.45pm Sat at 23/10 with PP Result 1-4 LOST Bet 2 €263.61 on Hull v Newcastle 3pm Sat at 9/4 with PP Result 1-1 WON €593.13 CYCLE 9 Bet 1 €192.50 on Aston Villa v Tottenham 4pm Sun at 23/10 with PP Result 1-2 LOST SUMMARY Starting bank €5,000 Current Bank €7,590.82 Profit €2,590.82 Bets 17 Draws 8 Strike Rate 47% Longest Run without a draw = 4 games Now on CYCLE 9 Bet 2 Next Bet will be €278.06 I will double my bank when 13 cycles are acheived and then re-assess - 8 down, 5 to go. In response to the comments below: I work out the staking plan on excel calculations. Anyone who wants the full staking plan on excel, just email me. My real results are better as I am staking my bets on betfair which is approx 15% better odds so my real profit to date is €3,200 and I will double my bank in 11 cycles. I use bookie prices for proofing. Of course there is a chance I will go bust until the bank is doubled but I am confident in my picks, there isn't a system out there that doesn't have risk, and I have seen thousands and they all have one thing in common, the more risk the greater the reward. Every system out there depends on good picks and I do believe I can find enough draws to make this system work, as I keep saying you need to get into the heads of the teams that are playing and access whether a draw is an acceptable result for them, the stats only tell you so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob41 Posted March 16, 2009 Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Hi Andy Yes, please can you send your staking calculations XLS. My email addy is:- [email protected] Cheers Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 16, 2009 Share Posted March 16, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Of course there is a chance I will go bust until the bank is doubled but I am confident in my picks, there isn't a system out there that doesn't have risk, and I have seen thousands and they all have one thing in common, the more risk the greater the reward. Every system out there depends on good picks and I do believe I can find enough draws to make this system work, as I keep saying you need to get into the heads of the teams that are playing and access whether a draw is an acceptable result for them, the stats only tell you so much. Good post mate, and well done so far. As long as you are comfortable with losing a bank I say go for it! :notworthy good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Andy, Just out of interest I ran the results through excel at your average level stakes which works out to be 249.32, the results are below , they should be self explanitory. Team Stake Odds Win P/L Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim € 123.80 2.4 1 598.37 Nantes v Grenoble € 131.15 2 1 498.64 Hull v Blackburn € 137.64 2.25 -249.32 Almeria v Getafe € 198.81 2.25 -249.32 Real Betis v Villareal € 287.17 2.25 1 560.97 Blackburn v Everton € 145.31 2.25 1 560.97 Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen € 153.40 2.3 1 573.43 Toulouse v Bordeaux € 162.14 2.1 -249.32 Lecce v Reggina € 234.20 2.1 1 523.57 Getafe v Malaga € 170.30 2.25 -249.32 Man Utd v Inter Milan € 245.99 2.5 -249.32 Dynamo Kiev v Metalist Kharkiv € 355.32 2.4 -249.32 Udinese v Zenit € 513.24 2.4 -249.32 Drogheda v Bray € 741.34 2.4 1 598.37 Man Utd v Liverpool € 182.50 2.3 -249.32 Hull v Newcastle € 263.61 2.25 1 560.97 Aston Villa v Tottenham € 192.50 2.3 -249.32 AV AV Total 249.32 2.28 2231.40 Compared to the results you've obtained it's very similar but at much less risk. I'll run the ratchet system I suggested later to see what the results would be then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Ok so here's the ratchet system :- Team Stake Odds Win P/L Bank Days End 4.9864% 5000 Dortmund v Hoffenheim € 249.32 2.40 1 598.37 5598.37 Nantes v Grenoble € 249.32 2.00 1 498.64 6097.01 * Hull v Blackburn € 304.02 2.25 -304.02 5792.99 Almeria v Getafe € 304.02 2.25 -304.02 5488.97 Real Betis v Villareal € 304.02 2.25 1 684.05 6173.01 * Blackburn v Everton € 307.81 2.25 1 692.58 6865.59 * Hoffenheim v Bremen € 342.35 2.30 1 787.40 7652.98 Toulouse v Bordeaux € 342.35 2.10 -342.35 7310.64 * Lecce v Reggina € 364.54 2.10 1 765.53 8076.17 Getafe v Malaga € 364.54 2.25 -364.54 7711.63 * Man Utd v Inter € 384.53 2.50 -384.53 7327.10 * Dynamo Kiev v Metalist € 384.53 2.40 -384.53 6942.56 Udinese v Zenit € 384.53 2.40 -384.53 6558.03 * Drogheda v Bray € 384.53 2.40 1 922.88 7480.91 * Man Utd v Liverpool € 384.53 2.30 -384.53 7096.38 Hull v Newcastle € 384.53 2.25 1 865.20 7961.58 * Villa v Tottenham € 397.00 2.30 -397.00 7564.58 P/L 2564.58 In order to compare apples with apples .... I have set the % of bank to 4.9864% which equals 249.32 of a 5000 bank, which is the average odds that has been staked to date and allows direct comparison with all staking methods. The asterix indicates the end of that days betting, so the bank can be recalculated and the stakes adjusted (or not) accordingly. As you can see 2564 gives a 15% better return than normal % staking and compares nicely with the 2590 achieved by the loss recovery system .... BUT .... with the ratchet system 5% of the bank gives a safety zone of 20 bets before going bust, compared to just 8 with the loss recovery - (personally I think 5% is too high I much prefer 3% - but as I say apples with apples) Your picks are excellent Andy so no criticizm intended here, I'd hate to see you go bust and stop posting :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Please explain! for most punters' date=' picking skills are [b']vital Sorry I've been unable to post and answer you, but I see that the people have already did it. I agree with them. Again good luck to ANDYMC10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 18, 2009 Author Share Posted March 18, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Excellent work Kanga, I can see the benefit in the ratchet system based on my bets made to date. I do however think that my staking system hasn't been fully tested yet as I have only had 4 losers a row once and the other times in beteen 1 and 2 losers. The full value of mt staking system is only realised when I have 7 losers in a row and the 8th bet is a draw. At the moment I could have had a loss recovery system based on 5,6 or 7 losers in a row instead of 8 and I would be still in the game with much higher profits to date. I could also reduce the stakes to allow 9 or 10 losers in a row but this would allow for less profits. It is about getting a balance. Based on my analysis and my picks including my 6 month testing period I think that 8 is the right number for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan ...with the ratchet system 5% of the bank gives a safety zone of 20 bets before going bust' date=' compared to just 8 with the loss recovery - (personally I think 5% is too high I much prefer 3% - but as I say apples with apples)[/quote'] I thought the ratchet system included a "loss limit"? I.e. if you stake 5% per bet, have a couple of losses, and the banks drops to say 65% (five 5% losses in a row), then you would recalculate your 5% against the new lower bank? I believe this is what Maria did in her (in)famous laying thread? Great comparison Kanga & nice picks Andy! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 18, 2009 Share Posted March 18, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan I thought the ratchet system included a "loss limit"? I.e. if you stake 5% per bet, have a couple of losses, and the banks drops to say 65% (five 5% losses in a row), then you would recalculate your 5% against the new lower bank? I believe this is what Maria did in her (in)famous laying thread? Great comparison Kanga & nice picks Andy! :ok Thanks Hoo it was a fun project .... I believe in Maria's laying system there was a recalculation after the bank dropped 35% .... but that was for laying where the liability is different. In backing as long as the strike rate is reasonably high then it's safe to lever a little extra return this way ( hence my first post on this thread asking for the strike rate ;) ) I was trying to show that returns can still be good with much less risk taken, I would rather a 20 bet buffer zone than 8 ........ but personally I would stake at 3% then you have a buffer of 33 losers which at this strike rate is very safe and good for the longterm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANDYMC10 Posted March 19, 2009 Author Share Posted March 19, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Sorry in advance for lengthy post. Out of interest, i wrote a small Java program which calculated the possible returns depending on strike rate. My definition of a cycle is a complete 13 bets, including any recovery bets. If he can double up more cycles than he loses, he should have profit. The conditions are as Andy have them, namely: Start bank of each cycle: 5000 % of bank in each bet: 2.476% Draw odds: 3.25 For every S/R %, i let it run through 10,000 cycles. These are the results that came up, with a S/R ranging from 28% - 50%: (Cutoff and Andy's current S/R of 47% in bold) MG (S/R 28%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 3834 times. Total profit after 285672 matches is -11211554,74 Avg # of matches/cycle: 28,00. Profit per cycle: -1121,16 MG (S/R 29%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 4179 times. Total profit after 289288 matches is -7721201,68 Avg # of matches/cycle: 28,00. Profit per cycle: -772,12 MG (S/R 30%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 4629 times. Total profit after 293906 matches is -3168567,26 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: -316,86 MG (S/R 31%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 5046 times. Total profit after 296325 matches is 1050207,30 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 105,02 MG (S/R 32%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 5419 times. Total profit after 297746 matches is 4823835,38 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 482,38 MG (S/R 33%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 5777 times. Total profit after 298860 matches is 8445708,99 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 844,57 MG (S/R 34%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 6224 times. Total profit after 299505 matches is 12967992,51 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 1296,80 MG (S/R 35%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 6555 times. Total profit after 296772 matches is 16316708,05 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 1631,67 MG (S/R 36%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 6908 times. Total profit after 298474 matches is 19887996,83 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 1988,80 MG (S/R 37%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 7237 times. Total profit after 297048 matches is 23216478,44 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 2321,65 MG (S/R 38%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 7502 times. Total profit after 294373 matches is 25897474,27 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 2589,75 MG (S/R 39%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 7768 times. Total profit after 290085 matches is 28588587,06 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: 2858,86 MG (S/R 40%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 8055 times. Total profit after 288874 matches is 31492156,12 Avg # of matches/cycle: 28,00. Profit per cycle: 3149,22 MG (S/R 41%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 8228 times. Total profit after 286056 matches is 33242391,13 Avg # of matches/cycle: 28,00. Profit per cycle: 3324,24 MG (S/R 42%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 8484 times. Total profit after 283972 matches is 35832334,27 Avg # of matches/cycle: 28,00. Profit per cycle: 3583,23 MG (S/R 43%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 8641 times. Total profit after 280610 matches is 37420697,83 Avg # of matches/cycle: 28,00. Profit per cycle: 3742,07 MG (S/R 44%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 8841 times. Total profit after 275552 matches is 39444090,91 Avg # of matches/cycle: 27,00. Profit per cycle: 3944,41 MG (S/R 45%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 8959 times. Total profit after 272197 matches is 40637892,82 Avg # of matches/cycle: 27,00. Profit per cycle: 4063,79 MG (S/R 46%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 9105 times. Total profit after 268581 matches is 42114969,77 Avg # of matches/cycle: 26,00. Profit per cycle: 4211,50 MG (S/R 47%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 9197 times. Total profit after 265315 matches is 43045730,58 Avg # of matches/cycle: 26,00. Profit per cycle: 4304,57 MG (S/R 48%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 9331 times. Total profit after 260449 matches is 44401403,94 Avg # of matches/cycle: 26,00. Profit per cycle: 4440,14 MG (S/R 49%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 9439 times. Total profit after 257065 matches is 45494036,20 Avg # of matches/cycle: 25,00. Profit per cycle: 4549,40 MG (S/R 50%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 9514 times. Total profit after 252611 matches is 46252808,61 Avg # of matches/cycle: 25,00. Profit per cycle: 4625,28 Conclusion: If Andy can keep his S/R% above 31%, he should show a profit long term. Does this seem reasonable? :unsure Just PM me if you want the java prog to test out for yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2good4u Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan Sorry in advance for lengthy post. Conclusion: If Andy can keep his S/R% above 31%, he should show a profit long term. Does this seem reasonable? :unsure Just PM me if you want the java prog to test out for yourself. Hi Hooloovoo, my post will not be that lengthy ;) . I do not think that you are right with this conclusion because according to my calculations, which of course could be wrong, (post 23 in this thread) if his strike rate is 30% he has more than 92% chances to hit 8 lost bets in a row. Please correct me if I was wrong, because I honestly do not know how you came up with these numbers? I think the problem is that you calculated that percentage of bank in each bet is 2.476% but the way I understood it is that it is doubled every time the bet was lost. Regards, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan 2good4u: I'm not 100% certain my calculations (as implemented in the program) is correct. But i think you got it the wrong way around. If he has a 30% S/R, then for every bet there is a 70% risk that he loses. In order for him to have 8 consecutive losses, he would have to hit that 70% 8 times: 0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7* = 0.7^8 = 0.057 = 5.7% risk of having 8 lost bets in a row I believe you counted it as 7 losses: 0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7*0.7 = 0.7^7 = 0.08 = 8%, and then turned it to 100-8 = 92% risk of having 8 lost bets in a row His chance for having 8 winning bets in a row is 0.3^8 = 0.00006 = 0.006% = very slim His chance for having 13 winning bets in a row (in order to double up without using any recovery bet) is 0.3^13 = 0.00000016 = 0.000016% = not likely :) So, for every new bet he has a 5.7% risk of losing 8 bets in a row (the "original" bet + 7 recovery bets). That means he has a 100 - 5.7 = 94.3% chance of success for each bet. He needs 13 bets to double up, that is 0.943^13 = 0.466 = 46.6%, which is shown by the output above: "MG (S/R 30%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 4629 times. Total profit after 293906 matches is -3168567,26 Avg # of matches/cycle: 29,00. Profit per cycle: -316,86" 30% S/R means just below breakeven long term. -------------------------------------------- But thats for a 30% S/R. If we recalculate for a, say, 40% S/R it gets different: (just copying the above with changed numbers) If he has a 40% S/R, then for every bet there is a 60% risk that he loses. In order for him to have 8 consecutive losses, he would have to hit that 60% 8 times: 0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6* = 0.6^8 = 0.017 = 1.7% risk of having 8 lost bets in a row His chance for having 8 winning bets in a row is 0.4^8 = 0.0006 = 0.6% His chance for having 13 winning bets in a row (in order to double up without using any recovery bet) is 0.4^13 = 0.0000067 = 0.00067% (still not very likely) So, for every new bet he has a 1.7% risk of losing 8 bets in a row (the "original" bet + 7 recovery bets). That means he has a 100 - 1.7 = 98.3% chance of success for each bet. He needs 13 bets to double up, that is 0.983^13 = 0.80 = 80%, which is shown by the output above: "MG (S/R 40%) with 10000 cycles, doubled up 8055 times. Total profit after 288874 matches is 31492156,12 Avg # of matches/cycle: 28,00. Profit per cycle: 3149,22" So with 40% S/R he will have, on long term average, a profit of 3149 for every time he tries this. This also equates to a 63% ROI (3149/5000 = 0.6298), which is spectacular, but on the other hand i find it hard to believe anyone could keep a 40% S/R long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tafflizgreg Posted March 22, 2009 Share Posted March 22, 2009 Re: My Draw System including loss recovery staking plan hi andy going great can you send me excell sheet with staking plan please [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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