Holy Grail Total Corners

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Not sure where you get %0.15 from? I make it, 20 corner units per day would give a max risk of 200 units per day. %50 of bank / 200 max risk = %0.25 so, with a starting bank of £100, would give, 25p per corner unit. Its much safer, but im not sure how much growth you will see in 300 bets. I make it an average of just under 5 units per day, so we would be staking %2.5 of bank on average.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I can easily model bank growth so will do as soon as I get to my pc. Probably thursday night, unless someone wants a go.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Hi again Muppet77,

I have looked at your spreadsheets, and believe I may have a solution to your staking quandary!

Not being familiar with spread betting myself, it has taken me a while to appreciate the possibility of losing up to 10 times the initial stake...This is the "killer" when trying to maximise stakes while not exposing yourself to a risk greater than your total bank. However, I think I may have a solution for you.

Based on your desire to place all of your bets at the same time, and keeping your total liability at any one time to less than 50% of the bank, the results are:

Start bank £100.00

End bank £325.73

Max bank £375.07

Min bank £ 96.96

Yield 20.95%

The maximum liability (on 9/5/10 when you had 1 five point and 2 seven point bets) was 48% of the bank with a potential liability of £149.26.

If you were prepared to be more aggressive with your staking, the corresponding figures are:

Start bank £ 100.00

End bank £ 896.18

Max bank £1194.99

Min bank £ 93.96

Yield 18.30%

The maximum liability (on 9/5/10 when you had 1 five point and 2 seven point bets) was 95% of the bank with a potential liability of £809.70...Yikes!!!

As I’m sure you’ll see, the staking system isn't perfect however...If you need to stake over 40 points in one day, (or 20 points using the more aggressive system) you'd be buggered

However, on the very rare occasions that this might happen, I'm sure a couple of the bets earlier in the day would be done and dusted before the others started.

Right then, having bigged up the spread sheet, (before you possibly pull it apart because I’ve screwed up somewhere) I find I'm not allowed to attach it to this reply!!!! Any suggestions?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Post if you read this draws. I will post my email address for a few mins then remove it.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Okey dokey

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? address removed

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Ok Muppet77, will email the spreadsheet shortly

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Final question Muppet77, is it a space or an underscore in your email addy?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Underscore, can't do spaces in addresses! Won't be able to check until tomorrow though.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? No worries, it should be with you now.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? ok after pulling random matches from my 301 games i have done 1000 simulations on my strategy. final results are start bank 100 end bank average 1300 max risked daily 35% bank to find out the stake per point per day the formula is ((start day bank * 3%) / corner points for day) see attached. any feedbank?

conv_1390.xls

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Hi Muppet, Impressive set(s) of results...and I really wish I knew how to do that random number generator thingy!! :clap However, if I'm reading the sheet right, it appears that you've settled on a 30ish % maximum liability per day, regardless of the number of bets or the strength of the ratings? Then you apportion the total between each bet according to their rating...ie on a particular day you have 2 bets...a 3 point bet with a "bank liability" of 9% riding on it, and a 7 point bet with 21% liability. If your system had only thrown up 1 bet on the day, and it was only a 1 point bet, you would have a "bank liability" of 30% resting on a bet that you yourself have determined has the lowest advantage to you with regard to the spread! If this is correct, the anomaly here is that solely because of the bet sequence, you are effectively risking over 40% more on a 1 point bet when compared to the 7 point bet! :unsure which definitely is not consistent with Kelly! As I say, I certainly can't fault your figures, but I'm not convinced by the logic.

[clay747]

Your max risk per day should never be more than %30. I think column R maybe using the wrong value. It should be %30 every day.

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? You should also look at the median bank as the mean could skewed by one or two outliers.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? You just beat me to it Clay!, the Median appears to be "only" £686.70 (which is still mighty impressive). I suspect this may be at least partially caused by the anomaly I mentioned earlier.

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? :) Fixed fractional betting is very sensitive to the order of bets. A %10 win followed by a %10 loss means you have less money than when you started.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? So does a 10% loss followed by a 10% win! Bizarre

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Thanks for the second opinions chaps. As you say though the kelly edge effect is lost if I divide the 30% up per day........... but does that matter? if the biggest and most reliable bank i can get is by doing it this way, then does it matter? is this edge problem averaged out? on some days the 1pt will get a huge stake and on other days the 7pt will get it. i have fixed the 30% column - many thanks.

conv_1391.xls

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Hi Muppet. If you're happy with it, and it is the best return possible, I think you can simplify the spreadsheet...Try changing the corner day stakes to 1 for all bets, regardless of the strength of your confidence in the prediction...I've only looked at it very quickly, but the average returns appear to stay exactly the same!

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? You star. That was my next step, to change all bets to level and then take a % of the bank as before. I will alter the sheet and run a few sims tonight. If its all good and someone checks it then we may go live this weekend! Is funny how there are hundreds of people following the winning bets when they are posted but only 2 or 3 who contribute to discussion and money management!

[Lardonio]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? If there really are hundreds of people following your bets, do you really need all of them to discuss money management? It seems the ones that has been discussing it has done just fine.

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

Thanks for the second opinions chaps. As you say though the kelly edge effect is lost if I divide the 30% up per day........... but does that matter? if the biggest and most reliable bank i can get is by doing it this way, then does it matter? is this edge problem averaged out? on some days the 1pt will get a huge stake and on other days the 7pt will get it. i have fixed the 30% column - many thanks.

the mathematical expectation of all bets as 1pt is 0.15 the mathematical expectation of all bets with corner stakes is 0.28 So clearly the corner stakes outperforms level staking. the mathematical expectation of the %3 fixed fractional is 0.62 when applied to your betting record. BUT, you can change the order of bets in the first two cases and the outcome will be the same. As we have seen with FF that is not the case. so you would need to average the ME over a large number of random trials to get a better idea of what it is. ME = (1 + (AVG(Win)/AVG(Loss)) * Win Percentage - 1

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Easy, I can tweak later and run some simulations on the 3%. I will work out the average expectation and post the results up.......

[robkor]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? You can let excel iterate many times (10,000) and set a specific criteria for each iteration e.g. "Did my bank at least double?" or "Was there any point where my bank dropped for 90%" ...then you count how many times in the iteration process the criteria was met and so you get a chance of something happening. You can construct a whole picture this way. But, as I said before, we assume the sample is representative. To turn on the counter you can make a referenced cell and then set Excel Options to iterative and set iterations to 1 ;) good luck

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

You can let excel iterate many times (10,000) and set a specific criteria for each iteration e.g. "Did my bank at least double?" or "Was there any point where my bank dropped for 90%" ...then you count how many times in the iteration process the criteria was met and so you get a chance of something happening. You can construct a whole picture this way. But, as I said before, we assume the sample is representative. To turn on the counter you can make a referenced cell and then set Excel Options to iterative and set iterations to 1 ;) good luck

no idea how this works once i turn the iterations to 1?? what does it do that my macro doesn't?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

the mathematical expectation of all bets as 1pt is 0.15 the mathematical expectation of all bets with corner stakes is 0.28 So clearly the corner stakes outperforms level staking. the mathematical expectation of the %3 fixed fractional is 0.62 when applied to your betting record. BUT, you can change the order of bets in the first two cases and the outcome will be the same. As we have seen with FF that is not the case. so you would need to average the ME over a large number of random trials to get a better idea of what it is. ME = (1 + (AVG(Win)/AVG(Loss)) * Win Percentage - 1

not sure how you get your figures for this. i agree with 0.15 for 1pt stake, i get 0.23 for points staked rather than 0.28 but for the 3% in original date order i get avg win is 20.42 avg loss is 19.14 win % is 0.528 (as a decimal?) or should it include draws where profit was 0? putting this in the eqn you get 0.09 not 0.62 what am i doing wrong? when you say 3% FF you mean also dividing by the day's stakes and then multiplying by the game's stakes? even it is is just 3% of starting bank i get 0.10

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

not sure how you get your figures for this. i agree with 0.15 for 1pt stake, i get 0.23 for points staked rather than 0.28 but for the 3% in original date order i get avg win is 20.42 avg loss is 19.14 win % is 0.528 (as a decimal?) or should it include draws where profit was 0? putting this in the eqn you get 0.09 not 0.62 what am i doing wrong? when you say 3% FF you mean also dividing by the day's stakes and then multiplying by the game's stakes? even it is is just 3% of starting bank i get 0.10

I made a mistake in the spreadsheet, i now get 0.11 not 0.62, and 0.24 not 0.28. AVG(Win) = Gross Profits / number of bets won AVG(Lost) = -Gross Loss / number of bets lost number of bets lost = COUNTIF( xx:yy, " 0") 3% FF means 3 percent of bank per day, allocated between games by corner stakes, as you do in the last spreadsheet.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Perfect, so we pretty much agree on results. So the new 3% Doesn't have the highest expectation but it does have the highest bank finish, at an affordable staking strategy and bank. Is that decided then? I can't see any faults?

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

You star. That was my next step, to change all bets to level and then take a % of the bank as before. I will alter the sheet and run a few sims tonight. If its all good and someone checks it then we may go live this weekend! Is funny how there are hundreds of people following the winning bets when they are posted but only 2 or 3 who contribute to discussion and money management!

It's funnier than that Muppet...I've never bet on any of them and probably won't in the future...I ain't gonna jinx it for you!

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

Perfect, so we pretty much agree on results. So the new 3% Doesn't have the highest expectation but it does have the highest bank finish, at an affordable staking strategy and bank. Is that decided then? I can't see any faults?

You should take some time to familiarize yourself with the drawdowns that can happen with fixed fractional staking. Its one thing to look at a spreadsheet that goes up, down and up again, but its quite something else to ride the swings as they happen.