Lardonio Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 300 bets +23% yield. I understand Muppet completely, there are always moments when one realizes that a lot of work is being put into something but it does not really pay off even if the numbers are good. Still, if the yield is calculated correctly (?) over 300 bets then even a not-so-big bank would have grown to a fairly big bank now. It's all about patience - and willingness to take risk. You can't really be a gambler without accepting risk. Maybe you have to put some more cash into it to keep your interest up. It could be a good investment (even though a historic positive yield does not guarantee a future one). I think most people grow tired of paper trading and betting pennies after a while, which is only natural. Maybe it's time to step it up to the next level and go all-in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 300 bets +23% yield. Hi Muppet, You're system got me into spread betting, I have only been following it for a short while and will start passing on a cut of the winnings next time. I often place the bet but will look to buy out when SPIN offer a profit that is equal to (or a bit more...I'm not always that strict) the amount your stake reckons that the spread mid-point is out by. I have found that more corners tend to occur later in a lot of matches. Anyway, like everyone else following you, I hope you keep going. If not, all the best. Best Regards So how long have you been lurking? You now feel the need to register & contribute to the thread! I wonder why?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 300 bets +23% yield. Well, Muppet, now you have enough data to compile percentage chances for overs/unders in the corner market, don't you? Thus you can find value in fixed odds - hey, who knows, maybe it ends up being more profitable :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 300 bets +23% yield. I treat each game as an even money game, which is actually worse odds than they should be due to the spread itself. For example if a match wins 5 units, I treat this as a 5 unit bet at even money. The yield is 5/5 or 100%. If I lost 5 units on a match, the yield is -5/5 or -100%. I don't see there is no money risk on the winning bets? Results and stats update later....... Breaking news............. Incidentally I may pack all of this in and try to go for some fun small stake fixed accas on corners. I think that due to you having to have funds in a spread account to cover all odds your potential losses, I am finding that my bank creeps up very slowly indeed. Sorry to anyone following but ideas are welcome. ? Ah ok mate fair doos. Looks like you have a successful thing going on. Be a shame to dis-regard it. If yor're achieving a 25%+ yield surely you could borrow an interest free credit card and use that to fund your stakes lol Suppose it all depends just how confident you are with the picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 300 bets +23% yield. ok - been thinking long and hard. :wall there is no way i am getting involved in credit card betting etc. i am going to investigate fixed odd betting using my stats. i have rejigged my sheets to approximate under and over corners - time will tell how good they are. more on this tomorrow - looks like there is value on some of the games for the weekend - so definitely some bets. i will have to put some cash in my bet365, hills and badcrooks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greek1971 Posted September 16, 2010 Share Posted September 16, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 300 bets +23% yield. So how long have you been lurking? You now feel the need to register & contribute to the thread! I wonder why?? Why so cynical? Lurking? The post was addressed to Muppet aimed at offering positive feedback. If you take some more time to read it you'll notice that I signed off by wishing him the best if he decided not to carry on. C U Next Tuesday Bedlam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. ok here we go...... Aston Villa v Bolton U 13 2 Dag & Red v Bristol Ro U 12 1.83 Southend v Morecambe U 11 2 treble and 3 doubles = trixie £1 each bet = £4 to win £14.67 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Only had time to set up and price sheets for premiership, champ, l1, L2, conference and spl. I will look at euros maybe next week or this sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninjawarrior Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. I assume you won't be putting up any spread bet recommendations from now on muppet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Yes no spreads for now... the secret is locked in my heart, or at least unless the spreads make me a life changing offer! Who believes? Who's in corner club? First rule....... Don't talk about corner club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninjawarrior Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. ok thanks muppet, I'm only interested in the spreads so I'll wish you good luck with the fixed odds project and thanks for all your efforts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Think you should start a new thread mate to avoid confusion. Good luck with the new one. Preferred the spreads so I'm out. :cry Good while it lasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Ok mate, good luck and thanks for following. Sorry the spreads are no more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenno99 Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Yes no spreads for now... the secret is locked in my heart, or at least unless the spreads make me a life changing offer! Who believes? Who's in corner club? First rule....... Don't talk about corner club. Got to say I'm gutted about this, thought the spreads was a great system. There's always going to be a large amount of variance, especially in something like corners. 20%+ was a fantastic yield over such a long period of time so well done and best of luck with the new system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. muppet, following your decision, I was browsing this thread and was looking at the posts form the past month or so. What surprised me was the sudden change of heart that you had within this last month. You started with lots of excitement for the new season around mid August, which quickly seemed to have evaporated. This has coincided with a drop of performance in your system. Was this the real reason behind your decision, rather than the logistics of placing the bets? What I'm trying to get at, is that all systems (even the best ones) have losing periods. And of course, those are indeed the periods where we often question ourselves, question our systems and everything else. But, one really has to see the bigger picture. If a system has been backtested for a reasonable amount of time and has been profitable both in that validation period and when going live, then there is no real reason to believe that it suddenly went bad. It's probably just randomness. That would be my 2p worth of advice. Good luck with your fixed odds accumulators! P.S It would be better if you updated your figures one last time so that the final results were available for future reference! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 17, 2010 Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Shame M.... liked taking Spin for a ride .... GL fella Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 18, 2010 Author Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Hercules v Valencia O 11 2.05 Sporting G v A Bilbao O 11 2.1 Wolfsburg v Hannover U 11 2.1 Bayern M v Cologne U 11 2 Espanyol v Almeria O 11 1.83 Levante v Villarreal U 11 2 both with Bet365, £1 trixies totalling £4 each. first to win £18.06. second to win £14.67. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 18, 2010 Author Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. last of the weekend: PSG v Rennes U 10 2.2 Nancy v Brest U 10 2 Sochaux v Nice U 10 2 Saturn M v Dinamo M U 10 2.1 £1 yankee = £11 in total. to win 68.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 18, 2010 Author Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE me vs spreads these bets ALL 27% 106.98 total corner ests 1 301 bets 26% 76.58 -0.7% v 5% 0.0% 52.8% wins 25% 46.99 average error 0.0% 3.3% level 24% 18.17 2.79 v 2.83 100.0% 43.9% losses 23% 0 av absolute error 10.00 2157.65 staked 22% -6.27 0.04 v 0.42 -10.00 493.15 profit 21% -24.08 -2.00 0.66 profit / 1pt stake 20% -42.18 sell & buy yields -100% 23% yield 27% & 3% 47.25 record win months with profit -40.00 record loss 14 out of 17 max wins & losses in a row this week this month sell bets 80% 6 & 5 bets 1 3 buy bets 20% profit -10.00 -15.40 top league yields stake 10.00 37.60 SpIn bets 75% italy 66% 12 bets yield -100% -41% Extrabets 25% e2 42% 8 bets spain 40% 93 bets champ 39% 14 bets SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 13/9/10 Stoke Aston Villa 13.00 u 5 15 -10.00 until next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
z11 Posted September 18, 2010 Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Shame to see you pack it in. I made a fair few £ last season from this and i fully understand what you mean about needing a bigger bank. Not been on any this season and was planning on uping the stakes when i started again but i always knew that something this good wouldn't be around for long. Best of luck with your new venture, and if you have the time i think you should still keep a personal record of bets that would of come up had you carried on. It would be handy to have that info for yourself should you gather up a large enough bank to re-start in the future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gloryhunters Posted September 18, 2010 Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. ok here we go...... Aston Villa v Bolton U 13 2 Dag & Red v Bristol Ro U 12 1.83 Southend v Morecambe U 11 2 treble and 3 doubles = trixie £1 each bet = £4 to win £14.67 with Bet365 Not sure how these got on. I got on Villa on 13.5 at 1.80 and Newcastle at Everton. I assume you have read Pullein's book and a bit that has interested me on the sorner fron is the supremacy. Looking at the stats I do I got on Wolves at +3 and Newcastle at +3. Have you ever looked at this market. I never realised that corner markets were priced for all the matches. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greek1971 Posted September 18, 2010 Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Sad to see you go but like everybody else here, all the best. Your final results post says it all.....fantastic system. I have made a donation for the few I followed.....sods law eh? I find a man with an edge and then no more....lol!!!! Anyway, all the best mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 19, 2010 Author Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Wow thanks greek, that's very kind indeed. I do hope that everyone, well almost everyone understands and respects my decision to postpone the spreads. I find that there are lots of Punters profiting hugely from my work. That's great. That's what I want and what a forum like this is for. However I find the returns, financially at least for me are small, even though the yield is high. I have no doubt that this is a great system and that I can price up corners better than the spreads in the long term. I need to try and take on the fixed odds to see what happens and in the meantime I have neither the energy nor time to work on both. I will give the fixed odds a few weeks and take it from there....... Really sorry to those who loved a spread, especially a winning one. The fixed odds to have double the amount of over round to beat but ten times the matches to pick from and ten times the bookmakers to select prices from. We shall see what comes of it. If there was a way to have fixed stake multiples on the spreads then I'd be in like a shot. Apologies once again for 'letting people down' but I have found huge satisfaction from doing better than the spreads, if only statistically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Not sure how these got on. I got on Villa on 13.5 at 1.80 and Newcastle at Everton. I assume you have read Pullein's book and a bit that has interested me on the sorner fron is the supremacy. Looking at the stats I do I got on Wolves at +3 and Newcastle at +3. Have you ever looked at this market. I never realised that corner markets were priced for all the matches. Good luck. Checking BBC website it looks like a double on Villa and Dag Red for a nice start to the system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 19, 2010 Author Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Not sure how these got on. I got on Villa on 13.5 at 1.80 and Newcastle at Everton. I assume you have read Pullein's book and a bit that has interested me on the sorner fron is the supremacy. Looking at the stats I do I got on Wolves at +3 and Newcastle at +3. Have you ever looked at this market. I never realised that corner markets were priced for all the matches. Good luck. Yes I have read it mate. Again the margin the spreads offer on supremacies is huge! That's one reaSon I didn't play it......... Also my system predicts TOTALs really well, but not so much supremacies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 19, 2010 Author Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Checking BBC website it looks like a double on Villa and Dag Red for a nice start to the system yes mate you are spot on. however i think this weekend will be a loser overall: as it stands the 4 accas wins are on 2/3, 1/2 with one to play, 0/2 with one to play, 1/3 with one to play. giving 4 winners and 6 losers overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gloryhunters Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Yes I have read it mate. Again the margin the spreads offer on supremacies is huge! That's one reaSon I didn't play it......... Also my system predicts TOTALs really well, but not so much supremacies. I agree with the spread being large and I suppose that is more to do with this being open to more in-running trading. anyway, I was think more about the corner handicap. I just think there would be a few gems knocking around since all games are priced up. But if you system is more suited to totals then it's best to stick with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 19, 2010 Author Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Tomsk v Lokomotiv M U 10 2.1 Anzhi Mhkala v R Kazan U 10 2 £1 double to win £3.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. maybe im missing something here but why not back the acca picks at the spread betting firm with the best price? ....for those upset about the end of published picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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