Holy Grail Total Corners

[muppet77]

FAQs what's going on here? i intend to proof my new rating system for 'total corners' in a match. i will be using live tv games, as covered by Sporting Index or spreadex. I will cover the EPL, SPL, Champ, L1, L2, BSq, Spain, Italy and Germany. League games only! All bets will be paper tested before unleashing real money. i hope to get a decent yield after 100 or so bets. i will measure % yield by : profit / (money won + abs(money lost)) eg if i have two bets, and win 3 quid on one, but lose 2 quid on the other, this gives me a yield of 20%. 1 / (2 + 3) where do you get your data from? www.football-data.co.uk how much do you stake? i will measure the difference between my estimate and the midpoint of the bookies spread to work out my stake: eg the spread is 11.25-11.75 gives a midpoint of 11.50 i estimate 10.00 which gives a difference of 1.5 corners or a SELL of 7 units

difference stake 0-0.74: no bet 0.75-0.99: 3 units 1-1.24: 4 units 1.25-1.49: 5 units 1.5-1.74: 7 units 1.75-1.99: 8 units 2-2.24: 9 units 2.25-2.49: 11 units 2.5-2.74: 12 units 2.75-2.99: 14 units 3-3.24: 15 units

what is spread betting? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting http://images.sportingindex.com/globalimages/trainingacademy/trainingacademy.html who are the spread companies that you use? http://www.sportingindex.com/ http://www.extrabet.com/dealing/sport/home.htm http://www.sportsspread.com/ http://www.spreadex.com/Sports/ https://www.sportsalive.com/betshop/index.php?cPath=2052#top generally i will only use Sporting and Extra. If you have to pick one of the two, Sporting covers around 75% of my bets, Extra the others. is there a place to compare spread corners? no! let me know if you hear of one! how do you work out the estimates? i use simple stats to rate the two teams involved. league only. that's all i am saying! (unless i get a financial offer from a spead firm or individual!) do you plan in advance? yes i use http://www.livesportontv.com/football/ to anticipate which games will be priced up. the weekend's games are usually published on a thursday by Sporting Index (SPIN) and friday by extrabet. i rarely use the other companies listed as the best price usually comes from one of these two. (70% from SPIN and 30% extrabet). these are the only two accounts you need for most of the bets. how much can i lose? i have a stop loss feature of 10 corners, so i can lose 10 x the stake per corner. eg if i stake 4 units per corner, at £1 per corner, i can lose at most 4 units x 10 corners x £1 = £40 but a bigger stake of 7 units at £10 a corner could be 7 units x 10 corners x £10 = £700 it is up to you to sensibly work out your stake - don't blame me! do you bet on multiples or singles for o/u a particular corner count? no, i stick to spread bets as it suits my estimating method more as it doesn't need another approximation method to work out the % chance of o/u. where do you get historic spread odds from? as far as i know there is no site with historic SPREAD prices for corners. I collected some and paper trialled until i was confident to go live on here. The price has changed. What's going on? It is likely that after a large weight of money (or a 'reliable' punter) has gone on a match, the companies will trim a quarter of a corner or so off the price. See the Racing Post newspaper for proof of prices before they get cut.

Edited November 4, 2017 by muppet77
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[clarky101]

Re: corner spreads I'll be looking forward to this.... as i like a spread bet...BOL mate...