muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE yes zero, that's my point. its not a smooth topped curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE yes zero' date=' that's my point. its not a smooth topped curve.[/quote'] Do you have stats giving the average number of corners per match for different leagues, and the frequency with which each corner value occurs? I'd be interested in seeing them, as I have done some investigation on the matter, and it is heavily Poissonian from what I have seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE What does it look like with all leagues plotted on the same graph? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE not at pc at the moment so will post some graphs later. all the data is from the football-data website if you want to have a go until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE 22,000 games, from 10-20 leagues. notice the blip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE 22,000 games, from 10-20 leagues. notice the blip An interesting aberration... However, the rest of the points are poissonian around the mean, so all it would take is an exception for the specific dip-value in each league, then the rest of the probabilities could be calculated poissonially. I don't use excel for calculations personally, I write all my models in python, it's much more versatile for such things, so I don't know how you'd go about it in excel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE agreed - could be chance variation as more games hover around 9-11. As there's more results within the distribution this could lead to the blip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE agreed - could be chance variation as more games hover around 9-11. As there's more results within the distribution this could lead to the blip. Also, it is the combination of two actual distributions of each team in a single match, each with its own expectation, which can cause a multi-peak feature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE sorry zero, I thought that everyone knew that there was a dip in the graphs. I seemed to be rambling to myself. thanks for the help guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE An interesting aberration... However, the rest of the points are poissonian around the mean, so all it would take is an exception for the specific dip-value in each league, then the rest of the probabilities could be calculated poissonially. I don't use excel for calculations personally, I write all my models in python, it's much more versatile for such things, so I don't know how you'd go about it in excel. dead easy, excel has a poisson function and the tweak is also a synch. thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE Can you beat the bookies when using Poisson to convert your corner means to probabilities? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE Can you beat the bookies when using Poisson to convert your corner means to probabilities? If he can beat the spreads then I'd have thought the bookies would be not better off... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE If he can beat the spreads then I'd have thought the bookies would be not better off... Sure, but with the extra step of applying poisson to means, and a larger overround, your edge can soon disappear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE I have only tried poisson with the leagues lumped together which made a loss. I will look at separate poissons for each league with a dip adjuster this evening and post back here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE Date League Home Away Line Under Odds actual me predict 27/3/10 Scotland Hamilton StJohnstone 11 1.8 9 9.33 1/5/10 Spain Villarreal Barcelona 11 1.8 8 9.54 what odds do you get for these two games? what margin do you allow for a no bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE not priced them up yet. although i have been looking at the european leagues' distrbutions... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE what odds do you get for these two games? what margin do you allow for a no bet? ok using the appropriate fudged poisson equations i get odds of 1.51 for the scotch game and 1.60 for the spanish game - pretty good considering i had the estimates at nearly low 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE using a double poisson and giving 58% of the mean to the home team i get 1.56 and 1.63. you dont see any profit if you allow a 5% margin between your odds and the bookies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE sorry clay, no idea what that means. tomorrow I test the poisson against my 365 data set and report back.c Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 1/1/11 Watford Portsmouth 11.50 u 3 £6.35 3.00% 15 -£22.22 -10.50 2/1/11 Wigan Newcastle 10.00 u 3 £1.70 0.90% 2/1/11 Sevilla Osasuna 12.00 u 4 £2.27 1.20% 2/1/11 Valencia Espanyol 12.25 u 3 £1.70 0.90% c'mon the Grail. we need you now. all spin (and extra i think) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE you get a double dip because the graph is the product of two function; poisson(HomeMeanCorners) * poisson(AwayMeanCorners). so i convert your total corners mean into home and away means by giving 58% of your mean to the home team and the rest to the away team. to workout the probability of there being x corners by the home team and y corners by the away team you do Poisson(x,HomeMean,FALSE) * Poisson(y,AwayMean,FALSE). to find the under 11 odds you sum up all corner probabilities for all combinations of corners under 11. The 58% comes from the Pullien's book. You would get better results if you could estimate the means for the home and away teams separately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE the double dip is not from my calculations, that's actual data. I have emailed pullein about his methods and I still think that my method trumps his idea of the 58% thing. he seems to have used historical coefficient weightings to come up with an estimate. mine is not like this. each to their own though and we both do pretty well corner wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE to workout the probability of there being x corners by the home team and y corners by the away team you do Poisson(x,HomeMean,FALSE) * Poisson(y,AwayMean,FALSE). to find the under 11 odds you sum up all corner probabilities for all combinations of corners under 11. or simply use TRUE in the excel function to make it cumulative, which saves you summing the separate probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE ok, great news. this is based on data from 09/10 season that was unseen by the model. i calculated the edge i had and then recorded it as i upped it to see the effect on yield. encouragingly it increases as edge increases. i may well have the fixed odd bookies by the short and curlies as well as the spreads. edgebets yield all 3359 -8 0% 867 0 1% 656 -8 2% 486 -5 3% 333 0 4% 226 3 5% 145 0 6% 97 8 7% 66 23 8% 38 41 9% 24 38 10% 13 56 11% 8 53 12% 6 37 13% 1 110 The Grail could be more powerful than we could ever imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE Some interesting results there muppet. I'm sure shopping around for the best odds would increase the number of bets we could make when looking for a an edge greater than 5%. Summing the number of bets from 0% edge to 13%, leaves you about 400 short of the total amount of bets. any reason for this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets, +25% yield. HELP NEEDE thanks mate. the edge was worked out using >=0, then >=1, etc etc so looks at that yield or greater. there are many bets that have negative edge that are not in the table. I may consider doubles if I can get them with the same bookie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield. FIXED ODDS FUN I do love simple systems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield. FIXED ODDS FUN is this one too complicated to follow grex?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield. FIXED ODDS FUN is this one too complicated to follow grex?! To be honest.... YES. Not only is it complicated, but which system are we following - spreads or "fixed odds fun"? I appreciate that you are trying to get the best out of your data, but we have had two or more pages of discussion on the method of yield calculation, with no positive conclusion (other than plumping for the method that gives the highest yield, whether or not it is based on the basic principle of profit/liability). This is not meant to be a criticism.... simply some observations on behalf of us simpler souls ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 323 bets +25% yield. FIXED ODDS FUN grex, a summary. the faq found at post number one should clear up the spread system for you. these bets are posted in pink tables in this thread. however, things have happened pretty fast on here in the last week. basically, followers have always asked if the spreads system can be converted to a fixed odds system. this would allow accumulators and also those without spread banks to play. I have also had a couple of emails asking the same question, wanting to buy the grail for syndicate use. I said no, but that I would explore fixed odds to open up the market. since then I have had great advice from clay and zero to name a couple into fitting a poisson distribution to the data I have to adjust it for fixed odds. I have also been donated bet365 fixed odds by another member and a neural network by another. the network is on ice for the moment. I used the poissons to create a fit for the system so it can play the fixed odds. then I back tested it on the 365 data and published the yield results earlier. you are right in that there has been no call on the cut off for the edge as things have happened fast and time has been short over the festive period. it is a highly exciting prospect, I am sure you will agree grex, to take an awesome system and diversify it to fit a larger market. in this way the decisions have to be correct and thought about. to this end, on this occasion, I have chosen to ask the lounge for help and this has been so useful. the fixed odd system has not officially kicked off, but it will be obvious when it does. stay tuned and I hope that brings you up to speed grex et al. thanks for following. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.