Holy Grail Total Corners

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P.

Eastbourne v Rushden	U 10.5	1.95	win
New York v Kansas	U 9.5	1.85
Tottenham v Villa	U 12.5	1.95
West Brom v Bolton	U 11.5	1.85
Leicester v Scunthorpe	U 11.5	1.95
Middlesbrough v Portsmouth	U 11.5	1.9
Carlisle v Peterborough	U 12.5	1.9
Huddersfield v Bristol	U 11.5	1.9
Walsall v Yeovil	U 10.5	1.85
Stevenage v Wycombe	U 11.5	1.9
Seattle v Toronto	U 9.5	2

trixie and yankees as per usual.

	staked	profit	yield	strike	odds needed	av odds
singles	41	1.93	5%	53.7%	1.86	1.95
accas	75	-29.90	-40%

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P. Does anyone know a site that updates in play the corner counts for championship to conference games APART from sporting life, the Bbc and Bookies own site? Reason is I am trying to write a php script that just shows the games I am following and their counts on one screen. I have managed it for the premiership using ESPN but they don't cover the lower english leagues.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P.

Does anyone know a site that updates in play the corner counts for championship to conference games APART from sporting life, the Bbc and Bookies own site? Reason is I am trying to write a php script that just shows the games I am following and their counts on one screen. I have managed it for the premiership using ESPN but they don't cover the lower english leagues.

ESPN do cover lower leagues! awesome i can now track my bets on ONE page!!

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P.

Columbus v San Jose	U 9.5	1.85
Dallas v Chicago	Over 9.5	1.9

£1 double

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? R.I.P.

Eastbourne v Rushden	U 10.5	1.95	win
New York v Kansas	U 9.5	1.85	lost	-4.00
Tottenham v Villa	U 12.5	1.95	loss
West Brom v Bolton	U 11.5	1.85	loss
Leicester v Scunthorpe	U 11.5	1.95	win
Middlesbrough v Portsmouth	U 11.5	1.9	loss	-11.00
Carlisle v Peterborough	U 12.5	1.9	loss
Huddersfield v Bristol	U 11.5	1.9	loss
Walsall v Yeovil	U 10.5	1.85	win	7.05
Stevenage v Wycombe	U 11.5	1.9	win
Seattle v Toronto	U 9.5	2	win
Columbus v San Jose	U 9.5	1.85	loss
Dallas v Chicago	Over 9.5	1.9	loss	-1.00

	staked	profit	yield	strike	odds needed	av odds
singles	53	-2.37	-4%	47.2%	2.12	1.95
accas	98	-38.85	-40%

a treble pops up but no sign ofd that elusive four fold.....

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? IS BACK ??? ok i am thinking that i have less edge and am considering a return to the spreads....... if...........someone can show me a way of maximising my profit - and not necessarily my yield. my main gripe was lack of profit. assuming the starting bank is £100, you need to look at how many bets there are per weekend. stop loss is 10 corners. you need to work out how much i should/could risk each weekend - assuming i only have £100 at the start. the spreadsheet is attached showing all 301 bets. does anyone fancy taking up the challenge? hopefully i can get this show back on the road.

conv_1385.xls

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? RETURNS???? The edge I have could be magnified if somehow I could keep the idea of spreads (the more accurate my estimate is the more I win) but somehow include an acca idea to magnify the edge. Possibly grouping games together or rolling on profit to another game my work, I don't know how it would work in practice with so many bets at once with a huge stake needed. Anyone?

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? RETURNS????

The edge I have could be magnified if somehow I could keep the idea of spreads (the more accurate my estimate is the more I win) but somehow include an acca idea to magnify the edge. Possibly grouping games together or rolling on profit to another game my work, I don't know how it would work in practice with so many bets at once with a huge stake needed. Anyone?

Starting with a £100 bank and betting %1 of your bank per corner stake ends with a bank of £2,800. which peaked at £5,700 before the bad run at the start of this season. The one advantage of tv games is they tend to start at different times during the weekend. Unfortunately this is some what negated by placing all your bets in a public forum forcing you to stake all your games at once.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? RETURNS???? i don't think that's quite right clay. you need to work out the stake per corner for each bet, not just an overall stake for the match. doing 1% of the bank treating each match consecutively gets the bank to £420 at one point, finishing on £358, risking 66% of the bank on one day when there are 7 matches consecutively. see attached and updated file.

conv_1386.xls

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? RETURNS????

i don't think that's quite right clay. you need to work out the stake per corner for each bet, not just an overall stake for the match. doing 1% of the bank treating each match consecutively gets the bank to £420 at one point, finishing on £358, risking 66% of the bank on one day when there are 7 matches consecutively. see attached and updated file.

I assume each bet finishes before the next bet starts, which on the whole is true for tv games. I stake %1 of bank * corner stake, so i am using the corner stake as the % of the bank to bet per corner. so if the bank was £100 and the stake per corner was 4, i would Buy/Sell at £4 per corner. Does that make sense??? BTW has Sporting Index been down all weekend for everyone???

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? ok, so on one day you would be risking £7k which is 170% of the bank anyhow and so is not possible, assuming you wanted to get all the bets on in the morning as you were going out later in the day. also assuming the bets are settled before the next kick off. thanks for the idea though mate, but i need something that doesn't tie me to kick off times. this is the sort of thinking i need to move this forward... see new attachment with your idea.

conv_1387.xls

[gloryhunters]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? You could put 5% of your bankroll on the line. Though you'll need to get use to big swings and some big loses compared to your inital roll. An alterantive would be to play with 5%. When get to £500 take out £300 (£200 to treat yourself and another £100 put aside in case you go broke). Now have a roll of £200 use same rule until get to £1k. Take out say £600, £500 for treats and another £100 in case your roll goes nroke (eg £200 in reserve). Now roll is £400, repeat unil you reach levels you are comfortable with.

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

ok, so on one day you would be risking £7k which is 170% of the bank anyhow and so is not possible, assuming you wanted to get all the bets on in the morning as you were going out later in the day. also assuming the bets are settled before the next kick off. thanks for the idea though mate, but i need something that doesn't tie me to kick off times. this is the sort of thinking i need to move this forward... see new attachment with your idea.

how about we stake to %100 risk of bank per day, BUT with the limit that we never bet more than 1% of bank * corner stake per game. So if there was only one game per day at a corner stake of 3, we would not bet %100 of our bank that day, only bet %3 of our bank. If the risk per day is greater than %100 then we reduce the stakes per game to keep the risk at %100. Or you could be more selective with the games we bet on.

[Jenspm]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I'm definitely not a fan of percentage betting, I must say. Just had a quick look at your spreadsheet and have a few thoughts, - In my opinion, the staking system has to go and be swapped out with a level stakes system. The reason for this is that a big staked-loss has a massive impact on your bank and what you can stake elsewhere. You had a 40pt loss at one point, for example. - With level 1pt stakes, your biggest streak of losses (ie, had you started at this point the lowest your bank would ever be) was -18pts, thus the lowest point your bank would have ever seen if you jumped in at the worst possible moment in this stream of bets is 82pts. - The above example would limit you to 10 bets at a time, or 8 bets at your lowest point. As far as I can see, your maximum number of bets pr. day so far has been 5. - For you to have to not able to bet as much as you'd like (5 bets), and halve your bank, you'd have to hit a run 3 times worse than your worst ever run at the start of your session - £1 stakes would give you a profit of £148 over the course of 301 bets, an impressive total ROI of 148% - An average losing bet at £1 stakes is at £2.6. That's 2.6% of your bank and pretty 'safe'. - The chance of a bet losing more than £4 is 10% Anyways, I'd personally go for 50p stakes, but you'd be unlucky to not get away with £1 stakes in my opinion.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Some good ideas now... Any actual data to support your suggestions? i.e. Final bank, max bank reached, max risked, max risked per day etc... I just want to get people using my data and discussing the options as a group. If its do-able, then I will provide the picks.

[Jenspm]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? all the data I posted is taken directly from your spreadsheet mate :)

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Thanks jens, but I know that kelly staking says bet more when the edge is more and that's exactly what I did. By going level stakes I miss a trick if the spreads price up massively incorrectly. Besides the yield is about 5% better if I do not use level stakes, with similar profit and stakes.

[Jenspm]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I understand that, however, if you use points-staking your profits will drop and yields rise (I'd bet). Why? Because you have to account for high-stake bets. I wouldn't stake more than £1 on a single game, so then £1 would have to be your max stake, while the one-point matches would have to be like 10p. With level stakes, you'd be betting, say, 75p per bet at a lower-yield, higher-stakes and higher-profit system. (I think, too tired atm for maths, will take another look tomorrow)

[Jenspm]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Actually, I'll see if I can derive a profitable formula for spread betting from the Kelly Criterion tomorrow..

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? For each day add up the corner stakes, Call it S. multiply S by 1.5 to give you your bank percentage to stake, call it P. In the spreadsheet the maximum we ever stake is 30% of our bank. divide P by S to get the £ amount for one unit. So a four point game would be a stake of P/S*4. At the end of the spreadsheet our bank is £1,400 from a £100 staring bank.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Good maths clay and a great final total from 100 starting bank. Also as I read it we will be able to put the bets on at the start of the day rather than after each game. I will see if I can alter the sheet to model that, unless anyone else wants a go before I look tonight? I feel as if we are making progress. That final bank is very tempting. Edit... In your post isn't p divided by s always 1.5??? Can you provide an eg as I don't get what the 1.5 is. Does that just ensure that the daily risk is never greater than 30 per cent?

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? sorry, it should have been 1.5% not 1.5. it converts corner units to a percentage of bank to bet. here is how it look in the spreadsheet. I will email it to you as i can not do attachments. first line has one game, at 1 unit per corner, so we stake £1.50 per corner unit. Result is a £6 loss. second line has three games, so we stake £1.41 per corner unit. Result is a £15.68 loss.

 
[B]date    total units       bank       stake per day        one unit £[/B]
27/2/09      1              £100        £100*1.5%*1=£1.5          £1.5
28/1/09      4              £94         £94*1.5%*4=£5.64          £1.41

[robkor]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Hi Muppet! I thought of a simple method about how to maximise your bank growth ... I think it would be illusory to expect those same results to be repeated in the exact same order... I'm afraid the best staking method one will come up with could just be backfitting. What I would do here is assume that the frequency of each results will reamain constant (probably untrue but an assumption) ... so I'd draw the results from your sample in an random order. Then I'd come up with a staking method and check (on an extremely large sample) how many times you'd empty your bank for example (chance of ruin), chance to double, triple,.. your bank, etc... I prepared a spreadsheet for you, but I don't know how to attach files...(but it looks very promising ;) ) good luck

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Seems i made a mistake with the 'at risk' calculation, and i was still betting more than the available bank on a few occasions. Putting a cap of %100 of bank to be a risk per day reduces the profits to £815 Our average loss is only 2.63 corners compared to 10 that we use to calculate our maximum risk. So %100 at risk is some what overstated. If you want the accy effect with spread betting then you need to feed the profits on each game into the next game, which can be done because the tv kick off times are mostly offset from each other. But the down side is you need to be in front of the computer to make the bets. I guess software could be written to automate this. The problem with placing all the bets at the start of the day are those days where the corner unit sizes are large, that is, the system says the bookies have it wrong, and we can profit, but we end up betting smaller amounts on those games than normal, because our maximum liability for all the games to be bet at once is larger than our bank.

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? When you post rob, the attachment button is below the text box. Can you try? More later.......

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

When you post rob, the attachment button is below the text box. Can you try? More later.......

my posting rules(box at bottom of page) say i can not post attachments , so it may be the same for rob? maybe a mod need to give permission first?

[robkor]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Unfortunately, it seems I'm not able to attach...do you want me to send it via email?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? surely the way to increase the bank is to put more into the stake as you make more money ie % bank betting? by staking (5% of bank / (total corner points for all games for the day) ) * corner points we get start bank 100 end bank 1306 highest bank 2265 lowest bank 69 max risked per day 51% bank or 1094 max win per game 349 max loss per game 724 max stake per corner point 61 max corner points per day 19 of course this assuming i dont get closed down. any comments, more data needed or stats i may have missed?

[muppet77]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

Unfortunately' date=' it seems I'm not able to attach...do you want me to send it via email?[/quote'] i can do it excel using random numbers and a lookup function ta rob. it won't simulate massive amounts but i can get a jist. cheers mate.

[clay747]

Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN????

surely the way to increase the bank is to put more into the stake as you make more money ie % bank betting? by staking (5% of bank / (total corner points for all games for the day) ) * corner points we get start bank 100 end bank 1306 highest bank 2265 lowest bank 69 max risked per day 51% bank or 1094 max win per game 349 max loss per game 724 max stake per corner point 61 max corner points per day 19 of course this assuming i dont get closed down. any comments, more data needed or stats i may have missed?

if there is one game per day of 1 unit you stake %5 of bank on this match. if there is one game per day of 4 units you will stake %5 of bank on this match. But a 4 unit game should have larger stake than 1 unit game according to the system. And if i have understood you correctly you will always have %50 of your bank at risk?