Kempton 12/2/09

[fintron]

5.15 Kempton A wide open race in which hat-trick chasing Safebreaker is expected to be all the rage after a comfortable win last time out. However, I feel he is worth opposing here at the likely price because of a poor draw. Copperwood is similarly drawn low but I don't consider that important for him as he has responded well recently to a change in tactics (now held up). He may remain a maiden after fifteen starts, but most of those efforts have come over shorter distances. I can see why the trainer has campaigned him over shorter, because his breeding suggests those shorter trips will suit, however, his most noteworthy effort to date came when stepped up to a mile at Lingfield last month. He finished strongly that day and wasn't a million miles off the winner, who has gone on to score again subsequently. It is also worth noting that the majority of his unplaced efforts have come when he has tracked the leaders or at worst raced mid-division. He briefly attempted hold up tactics back in March - April last year, and although he was unplaced on both occasions then, he was just starting his handicap career off a mark that may have been excessive. He is now 20 lbs lower for his run today and judging by that Lingfield effort, as well as a 5th at Lingfield when staying on well but getting going too late over 7f, I think he could be worth backing here. The jockey seems to get on okay with him and on a couple of occassions he has been heavily backed to suggest he is fancied to go in at some point.

[NMc106]

Re: Kempton 12/2/09 Kempton 15-30 - Epic Odyssey - Lay Seems to be a 2 horse race this between Evs Favourite and 6/4 shot Blue Tomato. Epic Odyssey has been running in higher grade events recently and running quite well so is deservedly favourite but I just think Blue Tomato is improving and really showed as if he is ready to step forward lto at Southwell. He step back up to 6 furlongs here today and that could well bring out the best in him. He is 1lb better off than Epic Odyssey at the weights and goes with his usual 5lbs claimer so certainly has the advantage there. The evens available on the favourite seems no value at all as Brandywell Boy has a chance also, 6/4 seems more value on him to me, so it is a Lay bet. Winner I would say Blue Tomato, but again not at those odds so Brandywell Boy would be my EW selection.