Irritable Selections

[lunatism]

Irritable Aways Background I've been out of the systems thread for a while since Pinnacle decided to make life difficult for LSS, now i'm back with an offering for all of you to take a look at. I'm not one to rush into posting new systems up, so hopefully all of you who were fans of LSS will understand why I did take so long in putting this up - my theory is that it's better to put a quality offering up, or nothing at all (well, that or stick it in GH anyway :tongue2). Hopefully this can fill the gap left by LSS. This is quite different to LSS, first off - LSS primarily dealt with home sides (well, it wasn't meant to be solely homes, but seemed to drift that way anyway), while this is only about the aways. LSS was a backing system, while this one is all about laying. This one seems to have a knack of picking up away sides worth laying (and by worth, i mean that the odds are low, and that it has (so far) had a good strike rate). First off, as with LSS (and anything else that I post on here as a selection), this is based on statistics. I'm STILL not a fan of subjective betting, yet I do see the benefit in it. None of the selections here will be based on anything apart from quantifiable information that i've been able to get from the web, no opinion comes into it. The only opinion that has been involved was that of me when i first wrote the "rules" for this system. Backtesting I'm a big fan of backtesting, so I do this with everything that I want to put my faith in. Although it's obviously not the be-all and end-all, if you can backtest a system and over a few weeks, a few months and a few years you see profit, you must be onto something. With this particular system, due to certain constraints, i've been unable to backtest it further than the 28th December, and so posting this here and making any claims that it is amazing/super/fantastic SHOULD fall on deaf ears, after all, how could a system that has been backtested only to 28th December (that's 42 days folks) be anything apart from a temporary thing? The answer, we can't know - not until further testing, and more results have been recorded to support (or the opposite) this system. The reason i'm not waiting until i've got a substantial collection of results for this, is thati thought i'd buck my trend, and do some proper public testing for once. Although calling it testing is a little....i don't know, read on... Leagues The leagues that are involved in this are not as far reaching as those of LSS. Simply because I can't include any leagues that Betfair don't cater to. Meaning straight away that you wont be seeing Macedonian or Lithuanian selections (i know, a shame...can't be avoided), pretty much "limited" to the leagues that you all know and love. And when the Scandinavian and Russian leagues kick in over the summer, after a while those should be included too. Selections These selections are based on taking on Betfair favourites when they happen to be away (maybe the name gave you a clue), to make these selections, various variables are taken into account. Nowhere near as many as with LSS, pretty much things that the average punter can get their hands on from the league and form tables. There is no sliding scale about how confident "I" am about a selection, a match is a selection, or it is not a selection, if it's a selection then it's good enough to be a selection, while if it's not, well....it's not. So i will be treating each selection as an equal when staking too. As you will notice if you take a look at the attached worksheet (which I recommend you do, after all - then you can look at the selections so far, which i'm afraid don't exceed 57 at present), on the STATS page, you will see that it has 8 selections a week as the average, while average lay odds of 2.53, which is good enough to prompt me to start a thread about it. Stats As with other threads, every day there are selections, i will post updated stats, that is: wins, losses, total selections, average odds, strike rate, ROI, bank, etc. As the number of selections on file gets updated, i'll be in the position to make judgements about the leagues, odds, and anything else that happens to tickle my fancy. Staking Plan Level staking works quite well with this, although it's not so great when you have 9 selections in one day (which has happened a few times), so I would recommend (if you ever were crazy enough to follow these ;)) to use the same staking plan that I will use....it's not too straightforward, but it means that you will always have a reasonable portion of your bank NOT in play at any given time:

1. 80% of bank (so that's £80 if you started with £100)
2. divide this by 1.5 (now you have £53.33)
3. divide that total by the number of selections (lets say it's a quiet day, so you have only 1, so your total is still £53.33)
4. you obviously don't want to bet £53.33 (to backers stakes) on one selection! so now you check, is £53.33 less than (or equal to) 7% of your total bank? No? Well onto the next step
5. Total bank divided by 7%!

So to summarise it once more, if you have more selections, your stake will be less, and the max stake will be 7%. I made a spreadsheet to calculate this (it counts number of selections and everything), so if anybody is interested, i'll post it. OR you could just use level stakes, but that proves a lot more "risky" if you have lots of selections if you want to achieve the same profit. THANKS has to go to Goon for pushing me into laying, since i don't like laying that much, but the stats (so far) speak for themselves. So What Is This Then? Paper Trials/Live? What? Ok, despite this being a "new" idea, despite of backtesting only going back to 28th December, despite the sample size being relatively small - i'm going to test this "live" with a small starting bank of £100. You are advised not to follow suit :D As with anything I post on here - i want your input, your criticism, your support, your ideas, your brains....everything Things never seem to go well for starting systems, so i'm expecting a long losing streak and a minus bank after a few weeks....but hey - that really is the worst that can happen, and if things continue as they have been then it will be the opposite of that. BACKTESTED STATS (each selection available in attached worksheet):

WINNING SELECTIONS	49
LOSING SELECTIONS	8
TOTAL SELECTIONS	57
STRIKE RATE	86%
AVERAGE ODDS	2.53
AVERAGE SELECTIONS PER WEEK	8

[lunatism]

Re: Irritable Aways forgot to add - I will post the selections after i've had them matched on Betfair, and I will and post them as much in advance of the fixture as possible :ok