lunatism Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Irritable Aways Background I've been out of the systems thread for a while since Pinnacle decided to make life difficult for LSS, now i'm back with an offering for all of you to take a look at. I'm not one to rush into posting new systems up, so hopefully all of you who were fans of LSS will understand why I did take so long in putting this up - my theory is that it's better to put a quality offering up, or nothing at all (well, that or stick it in GH anyway :tongue2). Hopefully this can fill the gap left by LSS. This is quite different to LSS, first off - LSS primarily dealt with home sides (well, it wasn't meant to be solely homes, but seemed to drift that way anyway), while this is only about the aways. LSS was a backing system, while this one is all about laying. This one seems to have a knack of picking up away sides worth laying (and by worth, i mean that the odds are low, and that it has (so far) had a good strike rate). First off, as with LSS (and anything else that I post on here as a selection), this is based on statistics. I'm STILL not a fan of subjective betting, yet I do see the benefit in it. None of the selections here will be based on anything apart from quantifiable information that i've been able to get from the web, no opinion comes into it. The only opinion that has been involved was that of me when i first wrote the "rules" for this system. Backtesting I'm a big fan of backtesting, so I do this with everything that I want to put my faith in. Although it's obviously not the be-all and end-all, if you can backtest a system and over a few weeks, a few months and a few years you see profit, you must be onto something. With this particular system, due to certain constraints, i've been unable to backtest it further than the 28th December, and so posting this here and making any claims that it is amazing/super/fantastic SHOULD fall on deaf ears, after all, how could a system that has been backtested only to 28th December (that's 42 days folks) be anything apart from a temporary thing? The answer, we can't know - not until further testing, and more results have been recorded to support (or the opposite) this system. The reason i'm not waiting until i've got a substantial collection of results for this, is thati thought i'd buck my trend, and do some proper public testing for once. Although calling it testing is a little....i don't know, read on... Leagues The leagues that are involved in this are not as far reaching as those of LSS. Simply because I can't include any leagues that Betfair don't cater to. Meaning straight away that you wont be seeing Macedonian or Lithuanian selections (i know, a shame...can't be avoided), pretty much "limited" to the leagues that you all know and love. And when the Scandinavian and Russian leagues kick in over the summer, after a while those should be included too. Selections These selections are based on taking on Betfair favourites when they happen to be away (maybe the name gave you a clue), to make these selections, various variables are taken into account. Nowhere near as many as with LSS, pretty much things that the average punter can get their hands on from the league and form tables. There is no sliding scale about how confident "I" am about a selection, a match is a selection, or it is not a selection, if it's a selection then it's good enough to be a selection, while if it's not, well....it's not. So i will be treating each selection as an equal when staking too. As you will notice if you take a look at the attached worksheet (which I recommend you do, after all - then you can look at the selections so far, which i'm afraid don't exceed 57 at present), on the STATS page, you will see that it has 8 selections a week as the average, while average lay odds of 2.53, which is good enough to prompt me to start a thread about it. Stats As with other threads, every day there are selections, i will post updated stats, that is: wins, losses, total selections, average odds, strike rate, ROI, bank, etc. As the number of selections on file gets updated, i'll be in the position to make judgements about the leagues, odds, and anything else that happens to tickle my fancy. Staking Plan Level staking works quite well with this, although it's not so great when you have 9 selections in one day (which has happened a few times), so I would recommend (if you ever were crazy enough to follow these ;)) to use the same staking plan that I will use....it's not too straightforward, but it means that you will always have a reasonable portion of your bank NOT in play at any given time: 80% of bank (so that's £80 if you started with £100) divide this by 1.5 (now you have £53.33) divide that total by the number of selections (lets say it's a quiet day, so you have only 1, so your total is still £53.33) you obviously don't want to bet £53.33 (to backers stakes) on one selection! so now you check, is £53.33 less than (or equal to) 7% of your total bank? No? Well onto the next step Total bank divided by 7%! So to summarise it once more, if you have more selections, your stake will be less, and the max stake will be 7%. I made a spreadsheet to calculate this (it counts number of selections and everything), so if anybody is interested, i'll post it. OR you could just use level stakes, but that proves a lot more "risky" if you have lots of selections if you want to achieve the same profit. THANKS has to go to Goon for pushing me into laying, since i don't like laying that much, but the stats (so far) speak for themselves. So What Is This Then? Paper Trials/Live? What? Ok, despite this being a "new" idea, despite of backtesting only going back to 28th December, despite the sample size being relatively small - i'm going to test this "live" with a small starting bank of £100. You are advised not to follow suit :D As with anything I post on here - i want your input, your criticism, your support, your ideas, your brains....everything Things never seem to go well for starting systems, so i'm expecting a long losing streak and a minus bank after a few weeks....but hey - that really is the worst that can happen, and if things continue as they have been then it will be the opposite of that. BACKTESTED STATS (each selection available in attached worksheet): WINNING SELECTIONS 49 LOSING SELECTIONS 8 TOTAL SELECTIONS 57 STRIKE RATE 86% AVERAGE ODDS 2.53 AVERAGE SELECTIONS PER WEEK 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 8, 2009 Author Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways forgot to add - I will post the selections after i've had them matched on Betfair, and I will and post them as much in advance of the fixture as possible :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways lunatism... we could also use this as a double chance bet on the dog? have you got the figures on ROI level stakes following that method? is it possible to publish the draw and dog odds if you have them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 8, 2009 Author Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways lunatism... we could also use this as a double chance bet on the dog? have you got the figures on ROI level stakes following that method? is it possible to publish the draw and dog odds if you have them? ah - goon just translated your message for me (never heard underdog referred to as dog before.....until now!), i'll get to work on what you want and stick it up shortly, ok? :ok just to clarify, you want me to post ROI of double chance using the underdog and the same staking plan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways ah - goon just translated your message for me (never heard underdog referred to as dog before.....until now!)' date= i'll get to work on what you want and stick it up shortly, ok? :ok just to clarify, you want me to post ROI of double chance using the underdog and the same staking plan? yes mate... or alternatively if you have the underdog, draw and double chance (for underdog of course) odds recorded... could they be added to your spreadsheet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways yes mate... or alternatively if you have the underdog' date=' draw and double chance (for underdog of course) odds recorded... could they be added to your spreadsheet?[/quote'] well, i'll run the DC and calculate yield, shortly, but i'll post the DC odds and home, draw and away odds up for these too for you. What version of excel are you using? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways well, i'll run the DC and calculate yield, shortly, but i'll post the DC odds and home, draw and away odds up for these too for you. What version of excel are you using? thanks lunatism... I have version 2007, but I have version 2000 available on a 2nd comp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SvN Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Interesting read. I'd be interested to know what qualifiers you're using to determine the selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways thanks lunatism... I have version 2007' date=' but I have version 2000 available on a 2nd comp[/quote'] ok, attached to this are DC and normal odds. I've used bWin in this instance, but also have bet365 on file if you want (but i guess bWin should be ok, after all, their odds are usually better...i think)conv_788.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Interesting read. I'd be interested to know what qualifiers you're using to determine the selections. hmmmm...what can I say without going into too much detail....well one thing I will say (although this hardly answers your query) is that unlike LSS, it IS kind of odds dependent in that it will not lay anything above 3.00 (although it's possible, but very unlikely, that the odds might drift that much after i've placed my lay and posted it on here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways ok, attached to this are DC and normal odds. I've used bWin in this instance, but also have bet365 on file if you want (but i guess bWin should be ok, after all, their odds are usually better...i think) thanks a ton lunatism... level stake betting on the underdog as draw double chance returned 29% ROI for those 57 bets... will certainly be keeping a watch on your progress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways thanks a ton lunatism... level stake betting on the underdog as draw double chance returned 27% ROI for those 59 bets... will certainly be keeping a watch on your progress ah, you beat me to it (posting the "news") ah well, i'm glad it works out with backing too then. hopefully it can continue! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SvN Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Obviously, results will speak for themselves once you start posting them. I'll keep an eye on the thread though, so good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Obviously' date=' results will speak for themselves once you start posting them. I'll keep an eye on the thread though, so good luck.[/quote'] thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Ok, made the spreadsheet that will calculate stakes, but because of some of the formulae I have used, it will not work in anything below Excel 2007 i'm afraid :unsure so i'll see if i can do anything to it otherwise i'll just post it alongside the first selections so you can all have a play with it..... I didn't put in any macros (incase you people think i put a virus in it or something), so i'll explain a quick way to clear the selections that are in there at present went i post it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways No selections today (not really many to choose from to be honest), but could be one or two tomorrow....won't be sure until tomorrow! Something that I forgot to add before, i didn't just post past results so that people could look and think hmmmm, ye, that looks good - it's also to help this system....maybe some of you have looked at the selections and think that they have a better staking plan that the one that I used, and so would therefore be able to create higher profits without putting any more stress on the bank - if so, please say so, after all, this isn't just going to help me :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SvN Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Upload it, I'd be interested in taking a look :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Upload it' date=' I'd be interested in taking a look :)[/quote'] ok, attached is the staking thing..... it's in a zip file because this site doesnt allow any excel files other than XLS to be uploaded, and it's XLSB. To clear the selections, just type 'DATA' into the name box and press the delete button....simple plus, maybe you could modify it so that it's "old excel" friendly (it's columns L,N & O that wont work in old excel BTW) conv_789.zip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Thanks for your PM, loon. A few initial comments. 1. For a system to be successful long-term, there must be some underlying logic to it. This one certainly has some logical basis as you are effectively looking for good value. And you say you are taking some "variables" into account, so it does mean you are not blindly choosing every away team with short odds - which I think would be suicidal. It might be interesting to know what those "variables" are. 2. I am assuming that recent form is one of the factors you look at. If it is, might I suggest that amongst your variables you omit any match where either team has had a recent change of Manager (e.g. Norwich at Wolves recently ;)). In my experience a change of Manager can, in the short term after the appointment, have dramatic affects on the performance - sometimes the team will improve greatly; sometimes they will deteriorate markedly for a short time. Either way, it can have the affect of throwing recent form out of the window, and I would steer clear of any such match. It will only affect a very few of the selections, but it's worth bearing in mind. 3. I was going to make a similar point to rabs, and indeed I'd expand on it further. Whenever I am considering laying a team, I will consider 3 options. Let's assume the teams are Y v Z, and you are considering laying Z. My 3 comparisons (from which I take the best) are: (a) The Betfair lay price on Z (minus commission) as you have suggested. (b) The double chance price on Y (i.e. win and draw) as rabs has suggested. © The AH (+0.5) price on Y. This is effectively the same as (a) or (b). Normally the Betfair AH price doesn't beat the Betfair lay price, but sometimes other firms AH prices (especially Pinnacle) will beat both (a) or (b). Good luck with this. I'll be interssted in how it goes :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways 1. For a system to be successful long-term' date=' there must be some underlying logic to it. This one certainly has some logical basis as you are effectively looking for good value. And you say you are taking some "variables" into account, so it does mean you are not blindly choosing every away team with short odds - which I think would be suicidal. It might be interesting to know what those "variables" are[/quote'] I know....really would be interesting for me to go into variables, when i've got a much bigger sample size at hand, i'll be willing to discuss them. Deal? (and by discuss I mean skim the surface ;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways I would say the 4 matches for a new manager would begin to establish any change in form. And I think it would be an idea to post any Pinnacle AH (+0.5) odds for comparison :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways I would say the 4 matches for a new manager would begin to establish any change in form. And I think it would be an idea to post any Pinnacle AH (+0.5) odds for comparison :ok I don't know how to work out +0.50 odds (if that's possible), and I only have the given Pinnacle odds at the time. All of my selections appear to be 0.00 or +0.25..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways i have just ran the AH odds through a level stakes staking plan, and seems to provide a 38% ROI (so far). Of course, that would hinge on me calculating it correctly, so it's attached below for all the world (and his dog) to have a go with :tongue2 just to add....that 38% seems to be what i get from calculating the ROI from the lays too, so all seems to match up...indicating that...well, you see: Using Selections For Double Chance: 29% ROI Using Selections For Lays: 39% ROI Using Selections For AH: 38% ROI Which suggests that laying is marginally more profitable at present, although i'm sure somebody will correct my likely errors of calculation shortly ;) conv_799.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Hi Loon A comparison is always good but you have to bear in mind that not everybody has multiple accounts or can split their money so easily between one or more accounts even if they do. For something to be sustainable in the longterm I think it has to be proofed against just one firm. Only my opinion but nevertheless. We are also hoping for some serious growth so hopefully these little fluctuations even out over time and have little or no effect. Sorry, I say we but I have been discussing one thing after another with loon for aeons now and I want/need this to succeed just as much as him:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Hi Loon A comparison is always good but you have to bear in mind that not everybody has multiple accounts or can split their money so easily between one or more accounts even if they do. For something to be sustainable in the longterm I think it has to be proofed against just one firm. Only my opinion but nevertheless. We are also hoping for some serious growth so hopefully these little fluctuations even out over time and have little or no effect. Sorry, I say we but I have been discussing one thing after another with loon for aeons now and I want/need this to succeed just as much as him:lol hey Goon, glad to have your voice on here (been almost 24 hours...took your time mate!!) :ok I agree completely with what you're saying....just think that no matter what, there will be people who are interested in the alternatives to laying (like rabs seems to be - probably the reason why he asked about the DC), so just thought i'd offer up a few stats on, and like palaceman seems to be - probably the reason he asked about the AH). I'm not at all proposing a three way split of the bank, but i guess for the folks out there that would rather use a different method of utilising potential selections (or even just to find out how well they would have done hypothetically), it probably would be "nice" of me (nice doesnt really fit...got a better word?) to provide them with this info..... Sorry' date=' I say we but I have been discussing one thing after another with loon for aeons now and I want/need this to succeed just as much as him:lol[/quote'] feels like forever, huh? about time something like this (in which i feel so much more comfortable with than others we've discussed) came to fill the gaping hole left by LSS...... now we wait for the selections, and the results....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Amenable of you:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Amenable of you:unsure PLUS...it "proved" (with level stakes) that our initial choice of laying rather than AH or DC was the best way to go....who knows, if the balance completely swings in favour of the AH, would you still be laying the away, or would you switch to Pinnacle and set that as your home page? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways PLUS...it "proved" (with level stakes) that our initial choice of laying rather than AH or DC was the best way to go....who knows' date= if the balance completely swings in favour of the AH, would you still be laying the away, or would you switch to Pinnacle and set that as your home page? :) At the moment I'm using the missus computer and I've set her homepage to Arsenal World just to annoy:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways Arsenal World?!! You Cruel SOB....if that's not torture i don't know what is!! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 10, 2009 Share Posted February 10, 2009 Re: Irritable Aways I don't know how to work out +0.50 odds (if that's possible)' date= and I only have the given Pinnacle odds at the time. All of my selections appear to be 0.00 or +0.25..... Pinnacle sometimes only offer 0.00/0.25 or 0.5/0.75 odds, as you say. Where that happens, clearly you can't make a comparison. But there are quite a few games where they do offer +0.5 odds. Where they do, comparing it with the Betfair lay price takes less than a minute. (The figures are irrelevant. You are just trying to ascertain which is best. I use £10 as a nice round figure). Take Accrington v Brentford as a current example 1. The current Pinnacle AH + 0.5 price on Accrington is -132. To win £10 you would need to risk £13.20. 2. Go to the Betfair site. Brentford are currently 2.26 to lay. Click on it, and then when it now appears on the right-hand side, select "liability." Insert that figure of £13.20, and it tells you that you would win £10.47 (minus commission) if you went ahead and the lay was successful. 3. Take off the 5% commission, and the true figure is £9.95. So you know that in this example, at current prices, you would win slightly more money backing Accrington on Pinnacle than laying Brentford on Betfair. 4. And purely to round off this example, a quick check of the Double Chance prices reveals 1.67 on Accrington or Draw is currently the best price. Putting your £13.20 on that would win you £8.84 - much less than either of the other two methods on this occasion. I do stress those last three words. Which is best will vary from bet to bet. I'm not sure that comparing the ROIs as you have is of great relevance. You would increase the overall ROI by choosing the best of the three methods for each individual bet. It mighgt not seem to make much difference on one individual bet, but over the course of a season all the little differences will add up. Hope that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.