teaulc Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 PokerStars Game #24734275652: Tournament #137801210, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2009/02/08 17:22:11 ET Table '137801210 1097' 9-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 1: CLOVER_DK (4502 in chips) Seat 2: Moncho_MR7 (16194 in chips) Seat 3: Tilli69 (8819 in chips) Seat 4: Buster Rae (19215 in chips) Seat 5: I BASSFISH 2 (3075 in chips) Seat 6: Beund2 (14730 in chips) Seat 7: Dave_the_doc (30125 in chips) Seat 8: teaulc (9360 in chips) Seat 9: kongenaj (27977 in chips) CLOVER_DK: posts the ante 75 Moncho_MR7: posts the ante 75 Tilli69: posts the ante 75 Buster Rae: posts the ante 75 I BASSFISH 2: posts the ante 75 Beund2: posts the ante 75 Dave_the_doc: posts the ante 75 teaulc: posts the ante 75 kongenaj: posts the ante 75 kongenaj: posts small blind 400 CLOVER_DK: posts big blind 800 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to teaulc [Qh Ad] Moncho_MR7: folds Tilli69: folds Buster Rae: folds I BASSFISH 2: folds Beund2: raises 1600 to 2400 Dave_the_doc: folds teaulc: raises 6885 to 9285 and is all-in kongenaj: folds CLOVER_DK: folds Beund2: calls 6885 *** FLOP *** [9h Qc 3h] *** TURN *** [9h Qc 3h] [Qd] *** RIVER *** [9h Qc 3h Qd] [Jc] *** SHOW DOWN *** Beund2: shows [Ts Kh] (a straight, Nine to King) teaulc: shows [Qh Ad] (three of a kind, Queens) Beund2 collected 20445 from pot kikib68 is connected *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 20445 | Rake 0 Board [9h Qc 3h Qd Jc] Seat 1: CLOVER_DK (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 2: Moncho_MR7 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: Tilli69 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: Buster Rae folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: I BASSFISH 2 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: Beund2 showed [Ts Kh] and won (20445) with a straight, Nine to King Seat 7: Dave_the_doc folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: teaulc (button) showed [Qh Ad] and lost with three of a kind, Queens Seat 9: kongenaj (small blind) folded before Flop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Ok, this is gonna sound harsh but....... Man loses 60 - 40 race at poker. It's hardly man bites dog is it ? I must have suffered 20 worse beats last night. Aside from that, your reraise is debateful in it's wisdom. You're "M" is fine, why you put your game on the line with AQo is utterly beyond me. For me it was a blatently obvious fold in this situation, cash game the call is fine, but not here. If stuff like this bothers you, you have serious problems with your game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick That's exactly what I thought AJ. At least you got your money in good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teaulc Posted February 8, 2009 Author Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick yeah,,i am just having a very frustrating few days where no matter what decision i make its the wrong one.....at least here i can get it out my system..........it just always seems to happen too many times...never seem to win the coin flips when i am ahead.. i know there is variance in the game but no matter what you all say negative variance wins out..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick most games i'd agree with aj but maybe not this one. i take it it's the 200k:unsurewhich i would be looking for a high finish so i would be taking a few more risks,also the play is loose to say the least so chances are its at worst a race.so i think you did okay al however if your gonna take the risk then you can't moan if you crash and burn;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick yeah' date=',i am just having a very frustrating few [b']years where no matter what decision i make its the wrong one.....at least here i can get it out my system..........it just always seems to happen too many times...never seem to win the coin flips when i am ahead.. i know there is variance in the game but no matter what you all say negative variance wins out..... FYP :tongue2 I promise you Al - negative variance does not "win" - for you or anyone else - it is solely your perception - you win almost exactly the proportion of coin flips you should.... Rather than "get it out of your system" - I think you need to understand it - can I suggest you look back through your hand history from that tournament and re-evaluate your "luck" (If you want me to do it for you - happy to do so). If you find that you were unlucky in that specific tournament, then add in the tournament previous to that and evaluate if you were "lucky" or "unlucky" with your coin flips across the two.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Been thinking about this - not because I think I suffer more negative than positive variance. It's all very well saying that variance will even itself out, but why should it? What effect does the outcome of a previous hand have on the current hand you're playing? If you win a KTvAJ hand being a 40/60 dog one hand, then the next hand your chips end up in the middle again with exactly the same hands your chance of winning will still be 40%. The fact you have just won a 40/60 'race' has no impact on your chance of winning this one. It's like people who Martingale the roulette table. Oh well, it's been black 5 times in a row therefore there the probability is that there's more chance of a red this spin. Which we know is incorrect - there's still a 48.65% chance just the same as every single spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Correct - it wont "even itself out" from the perspective you were outdrawn in the last hand, so you're less likely to be outdrawn in the next hand - it will even itself out from the perspective that the more hands you play, the nearer it will tend towards the true odds. Think of a coin toss. It's 50/50. The first toss comes down Heads. That does not mean that the next toss is likely to come down tails to "even it up". However if you toss a coin again 10 times, then the expectation is for 5 heads and 5 tails. Overall that means you have had 6 heads and 5 tails. It hasn't evened itself out, but after 1 toss you had 100% heads and 0% tails, but after 11 tosses, you have had 55% Heads and 45% Tails. The coins have fallen as they should, and not excessively for tails, yet the overall average has moved significantly closer to what it should be. If you toss the coin 1 million more times, it will be almost exactly 50% Heads and 50% tails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick yeah, but over the meta game, actual results track closer and closer to probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Correct - it wont "even itself out" from the perspective you were outdrawn in the last hand, so you're less likely to be outdrawn in the next hand - it will even itself out from the perspective that the more hands you play, the nearer it will tend towards the true odds. Think of a coin toss. It's 50/50. The first toss comes down Heads. That does not mean that the next toss is likely to come down tails to "even it up". However if you toss a coin again 10 times, then the expectation is for 5 heads and 5 tails. Overall that means you have had 6 heads and 5 tails. It hasn't evened itself out, but after 1 toss you had 100% heads and 0% tails, but after 11 tosses, you have had 55% Heads and 45% Tails. The coins have fallen as they should, and not excessively for tails, yet the overall average has moved significantly closer to what it should be. If you toss the coin 1 million more times, it will be almost exactly 50% Heads and 50% tails. You just summed up what i was going to say:ok You could say that over your lifetime the 40/60 shots should win extremely close to 60% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voiceofjoe Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick During a spell where I thought I was losing every race I ventured into - I did start recording on a Spreadsheet everytime I got all my money in - I called it my 'YinYang Sheet' - and whether I was favourite or underdog (at the point the money went in)and if the result was a suckout either way. I found out (opposite from my preconceptions) that I was dishing out as many bad beats as I was receiving, but also that most of the time the better hand held up. I didn't keep records for long as when I found I had nothing to moan about it didn't seem worthwhile continuing :lol:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick I'm not so easily convinced by random mathematical statistics. I am 99% certain that I win more races than I should and its all down to gut instinct and the fact I want to win. Alan on the other hand is just a big cuddly masochist who wants his butt wipped:spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Can we think of a different term to use instead of 'negative variance'? It's god awful. Perhaps 'my turn to get bummed' would be better?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Can we think of a different term to use instead of 'negative variance'? It's god awful. I agree. :ok Any statistician will tell you that variance can't be negative. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick my turn to get bummed :unsure I'm afraid I'm not aware who the PL5 are, sure somebody can point you in the right direction though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Ahh, the PL5. Not who you'd have thought really..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubermonkey1 Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Can we think of a different term to use instead of 'negative variance'? It's god awful. Perhaps 'my turn to get bummed' would be better?:unsure maybe al should move from brighton,stars probably think he likes it:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick I've played 2.5k hands this weekend and if i posted all the 'bad luck' moments just in those few hands i'd have an all time record post count. It's totally standard to run bad even over 20k hands so when you learn variance is a huge part of the game then it getss a lot easier to handle. I guess the more you play the more you get used to it, it still sucks a lot but becomes more the 'norm' and you just learn to plough on. Edit: Pokerstars does seem rigged as fcuk in tournies though. It's known as RiverStars for a reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Aside from that, your reraise is debateful in it's wisdom. You're "M" is fine, why you put your game on the line with AQo is utterly beyond me. For me it was a blatently obvious fold in this situation, cash game the call is fine, but not here. His M is not "fine", it is 7.8 and a reraise here to isolate a villain is a good play, considering that villain has M of exactly 2 and he is (should be) pushing with almost ATC. You want to take advantage of the desparation of short stacks and AQo is way to good to throw away in this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick No, the other guy has 14730 chips, so his "m" is somewhere closer to 10. His range narrows quite a bit at that point, think you may have missed read the stacks sizes Seat 8: teaulc (9360 in chips) Seat 5: I BASSFISH 2 (3075 in chips) Seat 6: Beund2 (14730 in chips) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick On the subject of Stars. I've just played a set of 6 DoN games and lost them all, every time I went out I was a greater than 60% favourite in the hands. RiverStars indeed. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick No, the other guy has 14730 chips, so his "m" is somewhere closer to 10. His range narrows quite a bit at that point, think you may have missed read the stacks sizes Seat 8: teaulc (9360 in chips) Seat 5: I BASSFISH 2 (3075 in chips) Seat 6: Beund2 (14730 in chips) Yep your'e right, i misread the stack sizes :$ Thought he was all-in with his 2400 raise, maybe i should consult my local optician :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick I've played 2.5k hands this weekend and if i posted all the 'bad luck' moments just in those few hands i'd have an all time record post count. It's totally standard to run bad even over 20k hands so when you learn variance is a huge part of the game then it getss a lot easier to handle. I guess the more you play the more you get used to it, it still sucks a lot but becomes more the 'norm' and you just learn to plough on. Edit: Pokerstars does seem rigged as fcuk in tournies though. It's known as RiverStars for a reason. I thought that was a good post, Nade... apart from the last comment. :lol I like the idea that VoJ used his YingYang spreadsheet. I might do that myself although I haven't played enough to be worn down by 'getting bummed'. I think that apart from the fact that its human nature to remember the bad things that happen as a survival instinct, it could also be the effect that the 'bumming' has. Its possible that because players lose a coinflip AND a tourney life at the same time they feel a greater sense of loss, but when they win, they only win a portion of their stack which becomes irrelevant in the grand scheme of things (which is trying to win a tourney). For any player to get over this, they need to reduce that sense of loss, and its difficult for some to find that fine line between caring too much (and therefore suffering that negative feeling) and only caring enough to want to play well and not caring about the outcome (if you can do that you're allowed to change your name to Trevor ;)). Question for you Teaulc. Would you have preferred to have had the worst hand and won? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAM Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick sigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulioArca Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick The guy is raising from mid / late position with two big stacks to act after him who could conceivably re-raise him out of the pot or get him to commit all his chips. I dont think he is raising with nothing and is hoping to be 60/40 at worst. Is AQ such a hand to get committed to? I think a call would have been in order and a chance to outplay him post flop. I like to look at it this way - "I got my chips in ahead so morally I am victorious - anything else is down to luck". :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heniek31 Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick Al, I played with you many times online and live and I have to say you totally and utterly love AQ. You seem to never passed it. For me moving all in is suicide in this spot. I might have considered calling here to hit the flop, but never to push. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyhornet Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick I have absolutely no stats to back up this claim...BUT...I am sure that I receive more bad beats than I dish out:\ This isn't because of any bad luck or variance, but purely that I (along with almost evreyone else here) try to only put the money in when I am ahead (or reasonably sure I am). That is not to say that I never go in with the worst of it, of course I do, but I try not to put my chips in on a wing and a prayer. An example: Tournament situation, and a stack that is bigger than yours raises all-in. You have KTo. I know there are a huge number of variables I've conveniently forgotten, but the fact is no-one here would ordinarily call that raise, as you will undoubtedly be either behind or a coin flip at best. A huge array of players will make that call, and is it not the fact that we don't put ourselves in -EV situations consciously that make it appear like we are badly done to? If anyone thinks I am rambling inanely....you are probably right:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teaulc Posted February 9, 2009 Author Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick in slight defence of myself here,i have just over 11 BB left,i havent played a hand in 3 rounds but each time i did i won it.....if it was the other way round and i had raised preflop with KJ and someone went all-in i would have folded........so i felt the only way was all in or fold. yes i was unlucky and i was not in the best of moods when i posted this. but it is good to see that i can still get you lot to post about the different aspects to this game we love and hate at the same time.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick but each time i did i won it If you are all in twice as a 62% to 38% favourite, you will win them both less often than you lose at least one of the hands..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 9, 2009 Share Posted February 9, 2009 Re: Pokerstars is so sick If you are all in twice as a 62% to 38% favourite' date=' and you win them both, then your luck is above average[/quote'] If you are all in twice as a 99.9% to 0.1% favourite, and you win them both, then your luck is above average. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.