Southwell 6/2/09

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Re: Southwell 6/2/09 2.25 Southwell Back in the Red has already beaten Grimes Faith twice in recent months and there is no reason to believe the Ryan runner will reverse the form off similar terms here. Excusez Moi would sluice up if running to his mark, but IMO its unlikely he will run to his mark again, juding by the proximity of his finish to Mutamared and (rated 84) and Desert Dreamer (77). He has won a handicap off his current mark on turf, but that was two years ago and he isn't as well in as the figures suggest I don't think. Blue Tomato looks the principal danger as he potentially runs off a better mark than Back in the Red, but all his wins have come on faster ground and I don't know if the surface will suit here. 7/2 skybet 3.00 Southwell Joe Calzaghe has just retired hasn't he so I'll back his namesake here - Calzaghe. Dandy does well in this type of event and market support would be interesting. He's a course and distance winner and was entitled to need his comeback run lto. 4/1 bet 365 3.30 Southwell Not a bad little handicap for the track and several inform horses take their place in the line up, with course and distance winners also aplenty. Wotashirtful clung on for dear life when just holding Ivory Silk at GL lto, and is only a couple of pounds higher now. He has form on soft on surf so may handle the slow surface. The Tatling, a one time Grp 3 winner, won over CD in December but its hard to predict when the old boy will pop up - he finished a well beaten 4th of 7 over CD last time. First Order is 9 lbs higher than his last win and others appeal more than this Ann Stokell runner. Canadian Danehill is well handicapped on the pick of his form (won off 13 lb higher in March last year) but is another inconsistent animal. Godfrey Street is only 1 lb higher than when beating Silvanus at GL and he does act on this surface too. Whiskey Creek won yesterday and goes under a penalty. I'm not a fan of horses being turned out this quickly, especially when the opposition is stronger, and I'm opposing on those grounds. Bo McGinty was 3rd to Ingelby Arch here on Tuesday and is well handicapped based on his win off 4 lb higher in a stronger grade at Chester. He goes well here and was pipped at the post for second last time and I think he could land a place again, however, Wotashirtful holds the strongest claims for me at fair price. 5/1 Paddypower 4.05 Southwell Boss Hog has been running very consistently and I'm surprised he's still a maiden after several decent efforts in handicaps. He's been shaping as if a drop back in trip will suit...on 10th Nov over a mile here, "tracked leaders, led over 2f out, soon ridden, headed entering final furlong" and similar comments were recorded on runs on 25th Nov and 13th Dec. He did drop back to 7f last time and finished second, but coming back onto this surface will be right up his street and he looks the form horse in the race. 11/4 Bet 365 4.35 Southwell My Best Man has often been outpaced in the closing stages of his races and connections chose to step him up an extra furlong to 7f here. He ran over a mile last time and was well backed, so I think there is more to come from him despite the fact he is winless from 19 starts. He runs off a mark of just, and the jockey claims a useful three. Trainer/jockey teamed up here yesterday, so will have a punt at the price. 7/1 bet 365