Physical Weight Carried

[NMc106]

I have no idea if this effects handicap races at all, hence the thread. What I mean is when I check the weight a horse is due to carry I simply check its official rating and compare it with previous races, to see if he runs with more or less weight. Now the purpose of this thread is to find out if anyone knows if the physical weight that the horse carries could effect the outcome. For Example: A hypothetical 3 mile Handicap Chase. The runners run exactly the same every race and aren't effected by any other variables other than the weight carried. Field consists of (weights not actually possible, just for the thread!): Horse A; officially rated 100 and therefore carries top weight of 12 stone. Horse B; officially rated 86 and therefore carries middle weight of 11 stone. Horse C; officially rated 72 and therefore carries bottom weight of 10 stone. The race is run: Horse A falls, Horse B goes on to win by 4L to Horse C. So the exact same race is run except without Horse A. The field now consists of: Horse B; officially rated 86 and therefore carries top weight of 12 stone. Horse C; officially rated 72 and therefore carries bottom weight of 11 stone. Would the outcome of the race be exactly the same (4L win for Horse B)? Or would the fact that Horse B now carries a stone more effect the outcome, even though the difference between the 2 weights remain the same? What I'm trying to ask is if a horse is officially rated 100 and runs in a handicap and carries bottom weight of 10 stone, then in his next handicap race runs off 100 again yet is a lower class event so he goes off top weight of 11 stone 12lbs (despite being rated the same) will he cope the same? Thoughts?

[stewartd14]

Re: Physical Weight Carried I think it changes for different scenarios. For example, if the going came up heavy, it is much more difficult to carry 12 stone, and I would expect Horse C to get a lot closer due to the demand put on the horse carrying top weight. Another factor that is difficult to analyse, is some horses are a lot smaller, therefore struggle to carry top weight. Can you imaging Katchit trying to carry 12 stone. Some horses will carry weight better than others, and I often find its worth looking at the top weights previous runs off of 11-12 or whatever to see how it has performed, as sometimes this can hinder a horse no matter how far clear he is on the ratings. So to answer your question, I do think the physical weight carried can make a difference, it all depends on the circumstances as to how much of a difference. My opinion anyway :ok