Golf - Dubai Desert Classic

[Danny West]

Niclas Fasth - 75/1 @ Bet 365 Good record in Dubai - 10th 2008, 3rd 2007, 11th 2006 A good showing in Qatar when carding -9 with a final round of 68.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic The stats agree but the guy has played too badly for too long (missed 9 cuts in his last 18 European Tour tournaments) to trust him after one decent performance. Thongchai Jaidee @ 80/1 Yes the guy missed the cut last week but in his 7 tournaments before that he finished in the top 20 of every one (including two wins on the Asian Tour). Has made the cut in all 8 attempts at this course and 7 of these appearances have been top 30 finishes (two top 10s) and has hit par or better in over 78% of his rounds on the course; not too shabby. While he hasnt won outside Asia, he does know how to get over the finishing line and at 80/1 it's too good a price to pass over. Simon Dyson @ 66/1 Simon endured a pretty torried 2008 but ended nicely with 3 top tens at the end of the year. Over the last two weeks he has shaken off any holiday rust and jumped 40 places at the weekend with a 69-66 finish - third best on the weekend weekend only to the winner Quiros and desert specialist Stenson. Has decent course form having finished in the top 10 twice in the past and three other top 25s (in 8 appearances - two MCs in first 3attempts) and would have finished much more impressively last year (T25) had it not been for a second round 77. Played well on the weekend and hopefully at a course he clearly enjoys can put four rounds together to give a decent run for our money at a very good price. Martin Kaymer @ 18/1 At one point I'll start to sound like a broken record with this kid but he is the real deal. Misjudged how he suited the course last week but he still finished T31 (worst in last 9 starts - which actually isnt all that bad!) and has four top 8s in his last 9 starts including three runner ups. Finished runner up here last year to Tiger and didnt fear the great man chasing him down the straight and cannot understand why he is over double the price of Stenson (who has not won a full field stroke play tournament for two years exactly). Won twice last year and can see him topping that this year starting this week at short but more than fair odds. GL

[LockStockLad]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Hi Hornet, Nice post and very sound picks - I was going to mention Dyson myself. Im still reeling from Vaughan Taylor having a poor final round in the Bob Hope. 3rd going into the final round I had him at 125s e/w and 12s for a top ten finish, final round saw him shoot himself out of contention! Personally I like Kaymer but im not ready to back him at anything less than 20s (yes he is the real deal and yes im being stubborn but golf betting has always appealed to me as I think there is value to be had - like 66s on Dyson) I like the look of Jeev Milka this week - he loves Dubai and had a good finish in Qatar last week, also Westwood has to win soon and sods law it will be a week where you fancy others, if he is around the 25/1 mark Ill be backing him regardless, tee too green he is right up there with Garcia the last 3 or 4 months. I will probably post a more detailed write up the next few days, I like the look of Stephen Ames in the FBR. He started horrendously in the Bon Hope with a triple bogey, had 2 rounds in the 70s and still posted a score that saw him tied 5th (posting something like 27 under par). I have checked briefly and he has had one decent showing around the track, ill be thinking a bit further before placing a bet though. Kevin Streelman is one to watch out for this year, he will come in at a big price this season - a bit like Marino he is a birdie machine, just about picking the right time to back him, not sure if its this week to be fair. I had Oliver Wilson lined for this event a few weeks back but finished tamely in Qatar last week. Ill tell you one thing though, there is no way he is an 85/1 shot, no way. Ill forgive him for an average few last starts, its a different kind of game when you get off to a flyer like he has and although his course form isnt great, he has played here the last 3 years and had a few decent rounds, he is such an improved player these days the bookies would deserve to get stung after offering such a silly price. Happy punting.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Unlucky with that LockStock, looked like such a good hit - if only the Bob Hope was four rounds!! I understand your pain with with him though - I had him at 200s to win the Masters in '07 where he was one shots off the lead after 2 rounds and finished it off with a 77-75 weekend (he was still equal with Johnson after 3 rounds!). But enough with the tough luck stories. For me Kaymer shouldn't be higher than 14/1 if Els and Stenson are such short prices. Westwood I couldnt back at the moment with the number of leads he's thrown away in the last year/18months - I'm willing to wait for him to show whether he can still close out. Agree about Singh, quality player but prefer the odds on Jaidee! As for Wilson, while he probably shouldnt be an 85/1 shot in any tournament I'd prefer to back him on a track he likes and check the odds on him finishing second! Will check out the FBR odds after the Watford match tonight and post if theres anything nice! GL

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Dubai Desert Classic - Thurs 29th Jan - Sun 1st Feb 2009 Previous Winners:- 2008 - Tiger Woods - runner up Martin Kaymer 2007 - Henrik Stenson - runner up Ernie Els 2006 - Tiger Woods - runner up Ernie Els 2005 - Ernie Els - runners up Stephen Dodd / Miguel Angel Jiminez 2004 - Mark O'Meara - runner up Paul McGinley 2003 - Robert-Jan Derksen - runner up Ernie Els 2002 - Ernie Els - runner up Nicklas Fasth 2001 - Thomas Bjorn - runner up Padraig Harrington 2000 - Jose Corceres - runner up Paul McGinley A top draw tournament for some of the best players in the world with the exception of the American contingent & Tiger! Firstly we have to draw attention to "The Big Easy" - Ernie Els and his sublime record in this tournament:- 2008 - 3rd 2007 - 2nd 2006 - 2nd 2005 - Winner 2004 - 3rd 2003 - 2nd 2002 - Winner 2001 - Did not compete 2000 - Did not compete 1999 - Did not compete 1998 - Did not compete 1997 - Did not compete 1996 - Did not compete 1995 - Did not compete 1994 - Winner 1993 - 8th If he wins this again this tournament should ought to be named after him! Ernie has started 2009 with 1 tournament in the Qatar Masters last week where he was up there early on and finished a respectable 31st. He has such a great record in this event that the 11/1 odds Totesport offer for him at 1/4 odds for a 1,2,3,4,5, finish should be mullered as these odds won't last long from now until the start of this event early tomorrow morning GMT. Predictions: Ernie Els @12.00 EW 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5, Finish - Totesport **** Top Rest of The World - Ernie Els @2.75 William Hill **** Top 10 Finish - Ernie Els @1.80 Paddypower ***** I will study further for some lively value odds outsiders and post here later! :ok

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Miguel Angel Jiminez has a decent enough record here to warrant Totepsorts odds of 40/1 as rather large! He finished 5th in Qatar last week coming through the field towards the end with a strong finish. Miguel is normally a slow starter to the year and the fact he has already shown some form in only his 2nd tournament shows he's on good terms with himself and he has a decent record here for an each way betting prospective: 2007 - 10th 2006 - 4th 2005 - 2nd 1999 - 8th 1996 - 2nd The fact other bookies go 28/1 for him and his record here and his decent showing last week I'll be having a go! Predictions: Miguel Angel Jiminez @41.00 EW 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 Totesport *** Top 10 Finish - @3.75 Paddypower **** Top European - @15.00 Paddypower ** :ok

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Luis Osthuizen is in top form at the moment having finished 2nd in his last 2 tournaments, The Qatar Masters last week and Abu Dhabi the week before! He finished 3rd in this event last year and has really blossomed over the last 12 months! He has to be up there on current form and the 35/1 odds offered by Paddypower seem worth a punt again as an each way prospective! Predictions: L Oosthuizen @36.00 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5, Paddypower *** Top Rest of the World @8.00 William Hill ** Top 10 finish @4.50 Paddypower **** :ok

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Martin Lafeber had a decent tournament at Qatar finishing 5th and finished 10th here in 2007. The 150/1 Totesport offer for him is huge and if he can continue his efforts from last week he could be in the mix! Predictions: Martin Lafeber @151.00 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5, Totesport * Top 10 finish @15.00 Totesport ** :ok

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Andrew Coltart odds of 200/1 with Totesport again is just too big after his 7th place finish last week in Qatar, an event he won in 1998 alongside a respectable showing in 20th place here that same year! his best finish here was recently in 2007 finishing 15th so he knows the course well enough. An old pro who has been around sometime but with a resurgence in finishing 7th last week he could look silly odds if he continues in that form here! Predictions: A Coltart @201.00 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 Totesport * Top 10 finish @17.00 Totesport ** :ok

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Another bet worth having a shot at, that Paddypower offer is the Leader after Round 1 -again 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 places. If we can go back to last week in The Qatar Masters where a lot of the best scores in the 1st round where posted in the morning because of the heat in the afternoon and herein lies our edge... The leaders after round one in Qatar where: A Coltart -6 tee off 10.55 am M A Jiminez -6 tee off 11.45 am H Stenson -6 tee off 07.25 am L Westwood -5 tee off 07.45 am L Oosthuizen -5 tee off 07,55 am A Hansen -5 tee off 07.15 am R Dinwiddie -5 tee off 10.55 am B Rumford -5 tee off 08.15 am For the exception maybe of Jiminez who teed off at 11.45 am the rest had morning starts thus emphasising the advantage on a morning start because of the heat! Predictions: Leader after Round 1 - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 Paddypower R Dinwiddie tee off 08.20 am @111.00 EW L Oosthuizen tee off 07.40 am @36.00 EW L Westwood tee off 08.10 am @26.00 EW A Quiros tee off 08.00 am @36.00 EW E Els tees off 12.10 pm MA Jiminez tees off 12.30 pm H Stenson tees off 12.30 pm http://www.europeantour.com/default.sps?pagegid={AEFB93B0-EFF5-4C05-AB0F-FD08D947D944}&eventid=2009007&infosid=5&roundno=1 The above is the link to PGA Tour website for tee off times for the first round :ok

[geeze]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic :loon my tips this week in the ddc golf are jimenez for pretty much what someone else said on forum earlier i got 40/1 win and 7.8 for top 5 karlsson mr consistency last year and good effort last time considering 1st tournament of the year 22/1 win 5.6 top 5 rose top class at best poor year last year but still worth a hit at 110/1 win and 23/1 top 5 :hope good luck everyone

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Looking to the PGA...significant stats this week at the FBR Open tend to be big hitters who putt well so hopefully I'll pick out a couple of gems to spring a surprise on the big favourite lefty who I feel is such a short price on his reputation rather than recent results (despite his record here). Ryan Palmer @ 101 Finished runner up here the year JB Holmes ran away with the title (7 shots), however, was only 1 shot off JB after three rounds which shows he can play the course. Pretty big hitter averaging well over 290yds/drive last year and also finished 2nd in putts/GIR last year so the stats fit the bill. His middle three rounds last week read 65-66-66 so isnt short of some decent recent form. Add to the fact that in the mix he can seal the deal (was in a 7way tie for the lead on the last hole at last years Ginn Sur Mer and holed a 10ft birdie putt to win) so at decent odds looks a good prospect. Scott Piercy @ 126 Until this season Scott Piercy had only started a few PGA tournaments, however, his best finish by a long way as a T15 at this tournament shooting 68-69-68-69 showing he's comfortable at the venue and should have good memories to draw upon. Started this season well with two top 20 finishes and even went the first 76 holes of the Bob Hope Classic bogey-free which is pretty impressive. Won two tournaments on the nationwide tour last year so knows how to close out and has shot 7 of 9 rounds this year in the 60s. 3rd in driving distance and 20th in putting on nationwide tour last year - add in 2nd on birdie average and top 10 for birdie % of pars 3,4 and 5 and suddenly the odds start to look too big. David Toms @ 34 He may not be a bomber but when a course fits your eye, who am I to argue? Missed the cut here last year but even then managed to hit a second round 68. 21 of his last 26 rounds at this course have been in the 60s and before last years missed cut he had made the top20 6 consecutive attempts. Has started the year in fine form with his round a 70 and running on a consecutive streak of 8rounds in the 60s and two top 25 finishes including a runner up in his first start of the year. Putting beautifully and if he carries on the way it's only a matter of time before he wins again. Jason Gore @ 201 Pat Perez's best friend winning a week after Pat finally wins his first tournament - a sentimental pick? Maybe (probably). But still some actual stats make him look like a decent long shot if he can put four decent rounds together. Is he a bomber? Yes. But hes got a lot more game than that - in 2005 he won 4 tournaments (3 consecutive on the nationwide tour - included a round of 59 - and 1 PGA) and also was lying second in the US Open after 3 rounds that year. He missed the cut last week but hit 4 under par rounds so hopefully he'll have got the rust out of his swing a bit. Made the cut at the FBR Open for the first time last year hitting 71-65-69 for the opening 3 rounds before falling away so shows he does have the game for this course. Has improved his putting year on year and hopefully will be inspired by his best friend. Speculative but with the game he's got in his locker he could make these odds look silly.

[Striker]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Good Luck All Match Bet [Paddy Power] Kaymer to beat Mcilroy @ 4-6..3pts Kaymer has looked really solid this season so far Kaymer played well to finished T4th,so bit of a downer that beat by the player who actually won the tournament!

[LockStockLad]

Re: Golf - Dubai Desert Classic Looks like a good scoring day in Dubai, Im hoping Jeev gets off to a flyer as my 2 bets in the end were Jeev and Stephen Ames to both finish in the top ten this week at around 26/1. Hornet, I have backed Gore at massive odds on a few occassions - a very frustrating man to have money on! Best of luck though!