Best bet of the day - 20/1/09

[wizzkid walter]

1.30 Southwell Bobski Likely favourite, best horse in the race, well in and top jockey booked for a big ride. 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day - 20/1/09 2.30 Southwell I've not had much luck going for bankers in the past couple of days so am looking for a big priced selection to bounce back. There are several inform horses in this race, which is a 0-100 class 2 handicap worth £11,657 to the winner, but I don't think any are bombproof. Firstly, I cross a line through anything that likes to come from off the pace when betting here. That immediately discounts Internationaldebut, a huge flop at the weekend and Mister New York. Moyazada is a course specialist and loves the fibresand, but may be outclassed in this company. She's been prolific in lower grade handicaps but seemingly got found out when upped in grade two starts ago. Nightjar will be happier back on this surface after disappointing on polytrack last time out, however, he doesn't look bombproof. He's one of the more likely ones but must prove he's good enough in this grade and defy a a 6 lb rise. Majuro makes some appeal based on the fact Jamie Spencer rides. Spencer has been in tremendous form for Kevin Ryan in recent weeks and this horse ran a decent third to Altantic Story and Markab in a televised Scoop 6 race a few months ago. However, he's now 12 lb above his last winning mark and having been stung backing short priced favourites numerous times in the past couple of weeks I'm opposing. Afterall, this is Southwell, and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see a big priced winner. Haajes is 8 lb higher than his last winning mark but a lack of recent racing for him means I'm taking a hopeful punt on the top-weight Excusez Moi. This horse is capable on his day and ran some decent races in this sphere when with Clive Brittian, finishing 4th in the £93k Totesport International Stakes, a heritage handicap, at Ascot in July. He had a crack at a couple of Group races before making his final appearance for that trainer in a conditions race at Great Leighs. He finished back in mid-field and then moved on to join Ruth Carr's, making his debut here over 5 furlongs 19 days ago. He fluffed the start but made up ground late on to show a little bit of determination. He has a low strike rate but has won over this trip and on soft ground, so may handle conditions. He's clearly a bit of a gamble as the price suggests, but his win in a listed race at Lingfield last February isn't that long ago. Danielle McCreery claims 5 lbs to ease the burden of top-weight slightly and with this being Southwell I'll take an EW punt in the hope of an upset. 20/1 Paddypower. 0.5 pt EW