Haydock - 17/1/09

[WoodyTHFC]

1.20 Snap Tie evens var bog 15 pts The best horse for me in the race. Official figures may marginally say Afsoun but Afsoun hasnt done much lately, isnt the most reliable and Snap Tie is an improving sort who for me has a definite edge over not just that one but all his rivals. Also Afsoun has to concede weight to ST. ST was a very good novice last year, unlucky not to win more and he has stepped up on that this year beating katchit and running a good second when only just going down to harchibald who he fought all the way to the line. The only slight concern would be if it got too soft as essentially he is a better ground horse. However connections would probably pull him out then and besides gd-sft he could just about get away with judging by his good third in the supreme last year. 1.55 Dear Villez 4/1 var 15 pts A few veterans in here and dear villez strikes as an improving sort unlike some others. Early on in his chase career he had a few mishaps but lately he has put in a few good performances. He was beaten by three mirrors at ayr last season when some way clear of the rest including the useful endless power. Then he took advantage of seemingly a nice mark in the 140s to win in ire. pretty easily. After that he was raised 10 pounds and the handicapper possibly found his measure a bit but that didnt stop him running a solid race in the hen. When he probably didnt get the clearest of runs to be a staying on fourth. The question could be whether the handicapper has found him out a bit being 150+ now but he has the type of staying conditions he thrives on today if he was to progress even further and also it is a race full of a few veterans and horses who dont strike as having much in hand, the handicapper seems to have a fair grasp on these imo so a run similar to lto in the hen. By dear villez could well be good enough. This is what I said about Dee Ee Williams when looking at him for the supreme a few weeks ago before a race was called off, essentially swap the grade 1 which would have been at san for the grade 2 today and clearly I feel he has a top chance. 2.25 Dee Ee Williams 2/1 var 20 pts . DEW runs today in the grade 1 and I fancy him to run well. The trainer has been really bullish about this one describing him as a horse of huge ability and for whom their hasnt been a horse to get him off the bridle at home. The trainer knows a good novice hurdler when he sees one having gone so close in this race with straw bear in 2006. His form looks very solid too and strikes as an improver too. His win at chelt., showing ever important course form, has been boosted massively since with the 3,4,5,6,8 and 10th winning since and many of them decisive victories. After that, DEW won what seemed a good race at asc., getting up late on to win. Three pulled clear that day and the presence of shoreacres amongst them gives substance to the form given that ones top bumper form (4th in fest. bumper) and his early hurdle form (easy win over some good sorts.) Following from that he suffered a first defeat but a very marginal one to a nice sort from king's yard in what again seemed a good graded event at asc. They didnt go the strongest of gallops that day (even though the time actually compares favourably with binocular's grade 1 win the next day) and one gets the feeling DEW could do with a stronger pace, something which he may get tomorrow with a couple of confirmed front runners and certainly would get that in the frantic supreme at the fest. If he gets that stronger pace, this horse could well be seen to even greater effect and for me 16/1 may turn out to be a fair price. Cousin Vinny and Hurricane Fly have both posted up impressive performances already and could well be targetted for this race but DEW strikes me as a nice sort, who seems to be improving, looks set to be targetted for this race and could well be shorter than 16/1 especially if he wins the grade 1 later today. 4.10 Tarablaze 2/1 bet3 bog 15 pts This former point winner could shape up even better as a chaser in time but for now he is over hurdles of the fixed brush variety and he has bold claims. The two Hemmings runners look the biggest dangers but Tarablaze won very nicely on his hurdle start making a now late 120s rated horse look ordinary. After that he was considered good enough to go for a grade 2 which in itself says soemthing especially considering the trainers horses he has. He wasnt digraced either as he put in a good performance to be second admittedly in a race that hasnt worked out that well at all but still a garded contest on name. He has had a bit of a break since then but he looks the class act of these today, 138 rated and 9 pounds in hand on the figures from his nearest rated rival, plus further improvement for this pretty unexposed sort is a possibility.

[Spooner]

Re: Haydock - 17/1/09

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Haydock 15:35 - Lucky Nellerie Runs well over these long distances, Will thrive on the ground, Lee gets on ok with the horse, Should run a good race. 9/1 bet365