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22 - Call or fold?


McG

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Reading through GaF's thread on playing 22 in early position late on in a tournament got me thinking about my own "turn it over in bed" moment last night, realting to my own predicament with 22. $5 freezeout on VC, about 1,450 runners, and after about 3 and a bit hours, we're down to the final 35, and I'm short-stacked in the BB with about 45k (average 62k), and the SB has just had 2 big hits and is down to 20k (when it gets folded round to us and he shoves). Blinds are 5k/2.5k, no antes, and I know he will shove with any 2, so I am likely to be ahead - but only just, or I could be well behind. Another 15k to win 25k in the pot? Do I call and try to get back to 70k, or fold? :unsure Now, mathematics tell me that I am likely to be ahead pre-flop as he is unlikely to have a pair (but it is possible), but that I am likely to be in a race for the pot. As you can probably guess, I called - he turned over J3o, made 2 pair, and I was out soon afterwards when my pre-flop shove with JJ lost to A3 suited (flush on flop!). Now the thing is, I knew I was, at best, a marginal favourite with my 22, but I figured it was the right thing to do - was I wrong? I don't think I would have called a bigger stack, but even then I'm not sure because 22 seems like a much stronger hand than it is until you actually match it against cards by calling. What would you guys have done? Should you NEVER call with 22 in these situations? N.B - If this question appears so obvious that I did the wrong thing, and I deserve to have it drummed in to me, please let me down gently :ok

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Re: 22 - Call or fold? You're getting odds of 6-4 on what is essentially a coin flip, or maybe you are a marginal favourite against his range. 22 v 2 random cards is 50.3% v 49.7% 2c2d v Jd3h is 53.4% v 46.6% (if you happened to know his cards :tongue2) Even if you put him pretty tight and top 50% of hands, you're still 47.2% v 52.8% So you're getting 6-4 for what is a pretty much a pure coin flip - assuming no imminent ladder up/bubble situations I think I'm calling here :unsure I can understand the argument for turning down positive ev to protect your tournament life, but here I think you just have too much equity to turn down ....

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