Lingfield 30/12

[RussP]

:ok

[RussP]

Re: Lingfield 30/12 12.50 Lingfield 12 runners going to post for this very poor Class 6 handicap, 0-52 rated, over 7f. A worse bunch of handicapper you'd struggle to find, not one of them finishing in the first 2 on their 3 most recent starts...that's 36 starts, no wins, no 2nd's and only 4 3rd's. Well, that is no reason to pass over a betting opportunity. In fact, as far as handicaps go, it's probably more reason to get involved. Due to the fact that all these are in poor form, I would be looking a double figure priced horse to back EW so those at the forefront of the market are discounted. Also in this type of heat, I prefer the more experienced, exposed type so all 3yo's are taken out of the equation too. This leaves us with a shortlist of 3 - 8yo Franksalot, 6yo Briannsta and 9yo Balerno - with which to make our selection. Briannsta is ignored as it has not finished within 5L of the winner on any of its AW starts in the last 2 years. Although not impossible to see this running a big race, it would take a huge leap of faith to get involved with real money. Balerno is the other I'm going to pass over despite having more solid claims that Briannsta. Won at Yarmouth in the spring but poor since. Could surprise back over this trip but I'd much prefer to back this horse when returned to Kempton, which it seems to favour nowadays, despite being a Lingfield CD winner. This leaves us with our EW bet in: Franksalot (5pts @ SP, RPF 12/1) - Admittedly, I've backed horses with more solid claims recently but, for many of the reasons explained above, this is a race to get involved in and this horse fits the fill. Firstly, at this track, I like a mid draw (4-9) so berth 7 looks perfect. It loves its racing and has had 15 starts this year, yet to win though. Since it's summer break, has had 8 races, 7 of those on the AW and its those 7 we'll concentrate on. It has raced over a trip too far on 4 of those starts, finishing 7th, 10th, 10th and 10th when tried over a mile of further, finishing 6L+ behind the winner on each of those starts. 3 of its last 4 races have been either over 6f or 7f. 4 starts ago here at Lingfield, the horse finished 3L 5th of 12 off a 2lb higher mark than todays (off 52, races off 50 today), over a furlong shorter than it faces today. Didn't get the best run that day and finished well so it seemed natural that step up to 7f will suit. That race was followed by a try over a mile before being returned to 7f off a mark of 50 at Wolverhampton with todays pilot on board. Again, the horse finished well, resulting in a 6th of 12 but only 1.5L behind the winner. That was a much better run than the 6 indicates. Lto over C&D, it finished 7th of 12, 4.5L behind the winner. Not the greatest of runs but I'm prepared to ignore that as it had a nightmare draw in 12, got stuck out wide and didn't settle, the result being it never got put into the race. In addition, there was no pace on so this was never going to suit. That was an apprentice race and I always treat them with caution so I'm happy to overlook the outcome. One thing to take out of the race is that Grizedale, current RPF fav, finished 3rd that day from a much better draw but, at 3 times the price, Franksalot is surely the EW bet here. Looking back through its form, the horse likes its racing so the shorter the gap between its races, the better. The 8 day absence, therefore, can only be viewed as a plus. I probably won't be able to get online tomorrow to post a price but if you can get 12's or above, I'd be taking that. A decent EW shot in an awful race.