Great Leighs 29/12/08

[fintron]

4.10 Great Leighs Six runners are declared for this class 3 handicap over a mile and a quarter. Australia Day heads the weights running off 92 and returns to the flat after finishing second over hurdles last time out at Ludlow. He won a Sandown handicap off 81 in July and finished a short head behind Amanjena (rated 87) in a conditions race at Ascot two runs ago. That wasn't a bad bit of form considering he was giving 9 lbs to the winner and the leading pair pulled quite a few lengths clear of horses rated in the 80's. Although the trip is fine, he does have to prove his effectiveness on this surface though. Baylini hasn't won since January and is 11 lbs higher than that here. She has a lower turf rating and came close off 78 at Windsor in September, but she looks a little exposed on the all-weather off this sort of mark. Trip and ground are fine but its understandable why she is the outsider of the field. Sgt Schultze acts on this surface without question but he would probably be happier at Lingfield and racing over further as the majority of his wins have come over a mile and a half. He is well handicapped as he won off 1 lb higher in March, and Luke Morris claims 3 lbs here, but he is looking to score over this trip for the first time at the 9th attempt here and so is opposed. Mafeking finished second to Suits Me at Kempton recently but failed to reverse the form when more handily weighted last time out at this track. He is dropped back down a 1 lb in the handicap as a result of that performance so has a chance based on the weights as his last win came off his current mark of 86. He's won twice over this trip and undoubtedly acts on this surface, although he does have a little to prove after his last run. In his defence, Suits Me is a top AW animal, rated in the 100's and ran respectably in a listed race on his last appearance in the aftermath. Cupid's Glory is the only previous course winner in the field, having won a low grade handicap here in September over this trip. He was only a head behind Ben Ami on his next run here, again over CD, but this race demands more. He's now 14 lbs higher than his last win, and racing up against higher rated opposition here I'm happy to pass over. Robby Bobby carries bottom-weight and Mark Johnston turns him out under a penalty following an easy win at Southwell last time out. The form of that race is debatable though as the two that chased him home are rated only 70 and 62. He has to prove himself on this surface (unplaced on two previous tries) and although the trip should be fine, he looks opposable for the time being, given the Evs tissue price, now upped in class. Verdict Robby Bobby and Australia Day look the likely pacesetters with Mafeking, Cupid's Glory, Sgt Schultze and Baylini likely to be dropped in behind. I think the Johnston runner could be outclassed here anyway, but the presence of him in the field could be to the detriment of Australia Day should the pair do battle upfront. Mafeking wasn't suited by the way the race was run last time as he sought to reverse form with Suits Me, as the Tom Tate rival was allowed to set a steady pace and make all, but his second to the same horse at Kempton reads as a decent bit of form in the context of this race and given that he is proven on the AW I have preference for him over Australia Day. If the race is run at a faster pace he could be the one to profit if he sits in nicely behing the leaders. RPF 8/1.

[thomo14]

Re: Great Leighs 29/12/08 Great Leighs 15.40 Red Somerset Was just touched off last time out by Flipando by a neck was also impeded in its run near the finishing line Drop in class-G Baker rides-Distance fine