Leopardstown - 28/12/08

[mowgli77]

Lexus Chase 2.35 We have a Grade 1 race over 3m on yielding to soft but you can't help think some of these runners will never be Grade 1 competitors. Apart from the first 4 in the betting they are 12-1 bar the field. The Listener always does well here but his front running style will just suit any horses coming late to pick him off if he isn't allowed to surge clear and he always falls short of top class when taking on the best horses. It is 9-2 but was only 11th in the Gold Cup when Exotic Dancer was 2nd to Kauto Star and that horse is 11-2 in this race. There is also War Of Attrition that has won a Gold Cup but looking at the horses in behind they were not exactly top class Grade 1 performers that day. Hedgehunter went on to win the Grand National but that is a Grade 3 event and this horse also seems to do better in Ireland. I expect it to run a good race and go close but I have doubts about how good it is. The race has been won by 7 yr olds for the last 2 years and the only 7 yr old in the race is Neptune Collonges, which will start as favourite. It ran a blinder in last years Gold Cup to finish 3rd and then followed up with a win at Punchestown but I would argue that it beat nothing of top quality that day despite it being a Grade 1 race. It is definitely an interesting horse with lots of potential but still has to prove itself. The one I'm backing is Exotic Dancer and I think looking back at its form it is hard to ignore this horse despite not winning since April 2007. It has been so unlucky to keep bumping into Kauto Star and being beaten by KS on a number of occasions is nothing to be ashamed of. The formline reads 3235323 but it has raced in top class graded races against some top class horses. It has had two races this season and I thought its seasonal debut was very good over a trip way too short. It made its comeback at Aintree over 2m4f on soft ground and finished 2nd by just 1 length to Knowhere. Snoopy Loopy was 3rd in that race but went on to win the Betfair Chase with Exotic Dancer in 3rd that day. Voy Por Ustedes was 4th at Aintree and ran 3rd in the King George just 2 days ago despite stamina doubts. Kauto Star fell in the Betfair Chase but won the King George. Monets Garden was 7th in the Aintree race but went on to win the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase. Nozic unseated its rider at Aintree but went on to beat Tidal Bay on Boxing Day at Wetherby. All that is hardly poor form is it??? It was held up as usual at Aintree and travelled well before being delivered late and looked menacing but a slight jumping error lost it some momentum and it made this mistake in the next race, the Betfair Chase. Connections have clearly got sick of being beaten by Kauto Star and opted for the much easier looking Lexus Chase and with over £91k to the winner who can blame them? Both Neptune Collonges and The Listener like to lead or race very prominently and I hope they get into a battle and set the race up for Tony McCoy. Kauto Star may have been written off and proven itself and Exotic Dancer can do the same here. Take the 11-2 Best Odds Guaranteed with Bet365. Exotic Dancer is also 33's with Tote for the Gold Cup, that is too big for me for a horse that finished 2 1/2 length second in a Gold Cup already and if it wins well the odds will be nearer 20-1. Suggested Bet: Exotic Dancer 11-2 Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Leopardstown - 28/12/08 only 1 horse for me in the Lexus today thats the fav Neptune Collonges. No other horse in the field today would be within 7L of Gold Cup winner Denman at Cheltenham over 3m 2f. Only concern is that it is 1st time up but the horse could even run slightly under its rating to beat these. Slammed a decent irish field at Punchestown in April & is now 2 from 2 in ireland. 11/8 is skinny but its another potential top class stayer from Nicholls stable.