Kempton Boxing day

[bowles10]

WE have a seperate thread for the big race if you wish to post any details on that race. Other selections in here please

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Boxing day 2.05 Keeping with the value theme of the last few days, is punjabi an 11/10 chance & Blue Bajan a 10/1 chance surely not? The result LTO at Wetherby was a 3.5L beating of blue Bajan with Sublimity just beaten into 2nd by the winner. That was on soft going & this is the key here. BB doesnt go on the soft it has to have good ground to perform. It won the Swinton in May like a good thing & was clearly one to keep an eye on. It then ran 3rd to Sentry Duty in a hot handicap where the winner franked the form again by landing another big handicap at Ascot last weekend. I really cannot see why Blue Bajan is 10 times the price of the favourite here? BB will also like this course & Punjabi has also won here so has the edge slightly on that score, but i will be sticking with what i see as a vlaue bet for this race. Harchibald is another to consider & will no doubt be fit for its seasonal bow after 2nd in this race last year to Straw bear. Blue Bajan 10/1 EW

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Kempton Boxing day I hope that Kauto wins. Not from a financial perspective, but from a racing perspective. There are a select few horses every decade or so that become icons. Red Rum, Desert Orchid, Best Mate and the like. Now fair enough Kauto has had a couple of 'ordinary' races by his remarkable standards in the last year, but his form has taken unfair criticism and it's very dangerous to write off a true champion. People are talking about Kauto now as ordinary, not in a million years. This is a wonder horse, a true Star, and a joy to watch. It only looks 'ordinary' now because of the phenomenal standards it had previously set for itself. This could be the horse of my generation, and I would be very proud to say I was growing up when Kauto was in his hayday. A true racing legend in my eyes. :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[alexmac]

Re: Kempton Boxing day I like Snap Tie in the Christmas Hurdle - reasoning in the BBOTD thread. Basically, seems a big price in an 8 runner race for an each way bet to nothing IMO...

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton Boxing day

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:10
Selection	Pierrot Lunaire (bog) (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	26/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 6.50 (Back)
Reasoning	I cannot see Pierrot Lunaire out of the first three and this looks a bit of an each-way bet to nothing, One run so far this year where he fell at Aintree when a hot odds on favourite, He was only 2 lengths down when he fell. He hacked up at Aintree two runs ago when beating Blue Bajan by 14 lengths. He had a few good horses well beat that day. He has faced the amazing Binocular once and was only beating 1¼ by him which looks very good form. Punjabi will obviously be hard to beat but Pierrot Lunaire can take this.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:40 - Without Kauto Star & Voy Por Ustedes (3 places paid)
Selection	Albertas Run (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	23/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 13.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Missed out on the 20/1 offered by Stan James earlier in the week but this still looks a great bet to me, Taking the front two out in the betting and the race looks pretty open, Looks to be out of sorts this year but Jonjo's horses are slowly coming back into form and im hoping that will bring improvment from Albertas Run, He should see the trip well and there is no doubting on the pick of his form then he would have a great chance, Basically you are getting 12/1 for him to finish in the top 5.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:40
Selection	Kauto Star Winning Distance? Selection: Over 4 Lengths
Strength	10/10
Date	26/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 5.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I was debating on this bet overnight and I still like it, One bad run last time out, What kind of price would he has been to win by 4 lengths or more last year? He has won this race twice, First one he hacked up by 8 lengths and last year he hacked up by 11. You do not become a bad horse because of one bad run, Kauto has always hit fences and his jumping has never been perfect imo however his record speaks for itself, I would love to see Kauto win this and win it well.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Kempton Boxing day SNAP TIE is a cracking bet for me. Improving all the time and conditions will be absolute spot on.

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Cannot wait for this.

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton Boxing day The novice chase is the most interesting for me. The best prospects we've seen so far in my opinion have been Breedsbreeze and The Market Man - chuck in the former decent hurdler Massinis Maguire, the G2 French winner and the unbeaten (over fences) Shining Gale and we've got a fascinating affair.

[PL2008]

Re: Kempton Boxing day 14:05 Kempton Blue Bajan (IRE) Beaten 3 lengths by Punjabi LTO. Jockey on board that day was Philip Hide. G Lee returns today and the two have a form of 3 wins and 1 third from 4 runs. Might get closer than 3 lengths today with Lee back. 5pts ew @ 9-1 Bet365 BOG 14:05 Kempton Pierrot Lunaire (USA) Likely to be priced lower than the 5s offered if not fallen LTO. Prior to that was a 2nd of 11 at the CD and a 14L victory at Aintree. Both runs were Grade 2 events. 5pts ew @ 5-1 Bet365 BOG 14:40 Kempton Albertas Run (IRE) Not been the same since return from summer break but price is too good to pass up. His third run from summer break in the past have been good to follow. Won a Grade 3 on third race after taking summer of 2006 off. Won minor Novice Chase at Cheltenham after taking summer of 2007 off. O'Neill/McCoy combo in a Class 1 race after a PU has 2 placed efforts from 3 runs. 1pt ew @ 33-1 Paddy Power

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton Boxing day

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 15:15
Selection	Pressgang
Strength	10/10
Date	26/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 4.33 (Back)
Reasoning	Looks to of got in on a nice mark this horse and should take all the beating here, He wasn't far behind herecomesthrtruth at Taunton last time out, He was 2nd in the champion bumper at Cheltenham back in '06. Will get the 2m 4f trip well and everything looks good for Pressgang today, Hard to beat at what looks a generous price.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Kempton Boxing day 12.55 Font 7/2 var bog 15 pts Has to overcome a penalty here but might just be capable. This former useful flat performer really has found his way over hurdles, possibly helped by a breathing operation like so many of the nicholls horses. He was so impressive at chelt. a couple of starts back, showing a smart turn of foot to settle matters and run out an easy winner of a race that normally has a few in it better than their current marks. After that he went off a very short price in a really competitive race but really it was a mistake halfway through that race which nearly so him fall which ended his chance that day. He then was second lto which I felt was a fair run. He had to give alfie fits, good flat/hurdle horse 8 pounds and ultimately that was beyonf him but tahts not really a disagrace and alfie fits' ok run in a grade 2 afterwards indicates its class. Another factor about the last run was that it was a good time, equal of the time of binouclar on the same card so comparitively that compares well. There are a few interesting ones in here such as fairyland, star of angels but they have yet to win a race and hence theer might be a question mark about their temperament, Font for me. 1.30 The Market Man 7/4 var 15 pts Very talented horse. Clearly had troubles over the years but no denying his talent and class. He was good enough to be second in a grade 1 on his chase bow and then this season, started of with a very classy and cosy win in a grade 2. Received weight from the runner up but I dont think it would have mattered such was his class and superior ability that day, jumping and travelling ever so well. Indeed such is his class that Gold Cups and not RSA have been talked of with the feeling that given past troubles in getting fit, if he was to be fit for the fest. then put him in the big one as that might be the last chance to do so. That just tells of the regard he is held in and if he is in similar form to lto I think he can win today. 2.05 Snap Tie 11/2 boy bog 10 pts e.w Nice price this imo. Offers good e.w value and really I consider the win outright a real possibility. This is a very useful horse. He showed fair ability in bumpers but over hurdles he has prospered very much so. Last season he always ran with credit at chelt. incluidng at the fest when a good third when behind binocular given him weight and that was on ground which wouldnt have been ideal. He started of this season with a good win here to defeat katchit. Admittedly that win doesnt look as good now since Katchit hasnt performed since but it was still a good win at the time especially considering snap tie's relative inexperience. Indeed despite that win his hurdling still at times was a bit untidy on a couple of flights so that definitely is an area that can be improved upon. He seems to have quite a few positives for him today too. The ground should be very much appreciated today, as should the sharp course and the break, he seems better when fresh and he has had a good lay off after his win lto. Punjabi clearly respected but this quick horse might just have a bit too much of a sharo turn of foot for him. 2.40 Air Force One 17/2 can bog 10 pts e.w I would like Kauto Star to win but given the fact that he has lost 3/4 races and it is jsut suggested he maybe is declining a fraction, I seek alternatives. VPU is not one of them, not at his price at all. I have never regarded the horse absolute top top class and whilst he is consistent and good he does have limitations. The trip is also a question mark and even though I can see him getting it, he has to improve for it from his general 2m which I never considered world beating. Also he has had a fair lay off now from his last run and for a horse I always see as better with racing, Im not sure that is ideal. For Our Vic and Imperial Commander I have trainer form doubts so i have plumped for Air Force One who I believe has ideal conditions and possibly is improving all the time like so many second season chasers. Air Force One I think is better on good ground hence his second in the hennessey was a very creditible effort on ground not quite suitable. His results also suggest he loves going right handed which is required here. I thought the way he thrashed a decent field at punch. last season in a novice race was very classy at a track quite similar to kem., he struck me as a king george possible after that win. I think the flattish 3m also suits as I have a suspicion that he is often vulnerable late on over just that touch further, his pace has always been under rated for me. Whether he is truly good enough is open to question somewhat but today we will find out and I have a suspicion that he is good enough to place at least and if KS is not at his best, it might be even better.

[Aykay1]

Re: Kempton Boxing day 205 - Snap Tie 5/1 stan james (1/4 1,2,3) This one seems slightly underrated to me. Has a great line of form through Binocular in last years Supreme Novices, when he ran into 3rd place on ground conditions that turned against him. Has his conditions today and comes into the race following a win over Katchit on his seasonal debut. Should go close today and looks a lively outsider for the big one in March.

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Boxing day 12.55 Font - Big weight to carry round here but has the form lines these others dont have & should be thereabouts again 1.30 Breedesbreeze, has won on any ground, great jumper & has the pace to win a Feltham, step up in trip no worry. 2.05 Blue Bajan, ew already tipped this one back on xmas eve. Only 3L to find with the favourite & on ground more likely to suit will be closer today. Snap Tie is one of my fav horses from last year but I just want to watch that one again today although again the ground is in its favour. Punjabi is a lay for me today. 2.40 Kauto Star is the class act, this course isnt difficult & perfect to play to its strengths, its record on RH tracks is excellent & should not be ignored. Air force One can nick a place. GL all:ok

[Woodie]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Surprised no ones mentioned straw bear today or have we all given up on him? I'd be interested in giving him one more chance now back over hurdles. Obviously suited by this sort of track and much better over hurldes than fences. Could well spring a surprise.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Kempton Boxing day 2.05 Kempton - Snap Tie My antepost champion hurdle horse. Will get his good ground here and already beat Katchit over C&D. Can't have Punjabi at evens. The Nicholls horse may be a danger, but I prefer the form over the potential. Straw Bear will also relish the flatter surface and good to see connections do what's best for the horse. Not trying him over fences and not at Chelteham. But at 6.8 at Betfair Snap Tie is my bet.

[stewartd14]

Re: Kempton Boxing day 1.30 Kempton Breedsbreeze @ 2/1

A novices chase that will no doubt tell us an awful lot for Cheltenham next March, but looking at the race tomorrow, I am taken by the price of Paul Nicholls runner, Breedsbreeze. The Market Man is likely to go off favourite on the back of one good run, and he didn’t really beat that much IMO. That was off a layoff, so he warrants respect, but I don’t believe he deserves to be favourite over Breedsbreeze, whom I fancy quite strongly for the Festival in March. He has put in 2 excellent runs over fences, and I think the step up in trip will bring out even more improvement. I feel he is head and shoulders above the rest of these, and is a good bet in my eyes.

Massini’s Maquire also has to warrant respect after an impressive chase debut. May be worth a saver.

2.05 Kempton Straw Bear/Afsoun EW @ 12/1 and 25/1

This in an interesting race due to the fact we have a few horses reverting to hurdles after brief stints over fences. It is with great delight to myself that Nick Gifford has put Straw Bear over the smaller obstacles again after a horror chasing campaign. Afsoun also returns to the hurdles after a fall last time out, and although this may just be a confidence booster, he looks overpriced.

To summarise the others, I cant have Blue Bajan, Harchibald or Leslingtaylor. Pierrot Lunaire interests me at a decent price after disappointing last time in softer ground. Punjabi is an obvious favourite, but too short for me. This is a good race. Finally, Snap Tie is liked by a lot on here, and its difficult to oppose him on his brilliant Supreme Novices form of last season. However, I am going to go with 2 longer priced horses here.

The afore mentioned Straw Bear and Afsoun revert back to hurdles and are my selections. Straw Bear is sure to appreciate the return to hurdles and there is no doubting he is one of the best 2 mile hurdlers on his day. That makes the 12/1 on offer look huge compared to the 9/2 about Snap Tie or Pierrot Lunaire, who have run similar races in similar contests but don’t have the advantage of experience. They do have potential to improve, but I would rather take the bigger priced on the proven Straw Bear. He won this race last year and enjoys cut in the ground, so he has to be an EW selection in my book.

Afsoun is capable over hurdles, but I don’t feel he ever fulfilled his ability. He has never won a Grade 1, and this is no easy task, but Nicky Henderson is in great form and this one could run better than the huge price of 25/1 suggests.

2.40 Kempton Kauto Star @ 11/8

Whatever people may say, I cant desert this fella at what is now a ridiculously big price. Who on earth thought Kauto would be odds against for the King George. Last time was purely a glitch but lets not forget what this horse can do. He sometimes takes time to get into his stride and Kempton is an easier course to jump han Cheltenham anyway. This is a Gold Cup winner and a Gold Cup runner up. There is competition in this race, but lets face it his nearest rival is an unlikely stayer and nothing else in this race has run as to the form KS has. If he runs to form, he wins. So 5/4 to run to form, I am all over him.

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton Boxing day No one on Harchibald then....

[Tipster5000]

Re: Kempton Boxing day

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:10
Selection	Pierrot Lunaire (bog) (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	26/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 6.50 (Back)
Reasoning	I cannot see Pierrot Lunaire out of the first three and this looks a bit of an each-way bet to nothing, One run so far this year where he fell at Aintree when a hot odds on favourite, He was only 2 lengths down when he fell. He hacked up at Aintree two runs ago when beating Blue Bajan by 14 lengths. He had a few good horses well beat that day. He has faced the amazing Binocular once and was only beating 1¼ by him which looks very good form. Punjabi will obviously be hard to beat but Pierrot Lunaire can take this.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:40 - Without Kauto Star & Voy Por Ustedes (3 places paid)
Selection	Albertas Run (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	23/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 13.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Missed out on the 20/1 offered by Stan James earlier in the week but this still looks a great bet to me, Taking the front two out in the betting and the race looks pretty open, Looks to be out of sorts this year but Jonjo's horses are slowly coming back into form and im hoping that will bring improvment from Albertas Run, He should see the trip well and there is no doubting on the pick of his form then he would have a great chance, Basically you are getting 12/1 for him to finish in the top 5.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:40
Selection	Kauto Star Winning Distance? Selection: Over 4 Lengths
Strength	10/10
Date	26/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 5.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I was debating on this bet overnight and I still like it, One bad run last time out, What kind of price would he has been to win by 4 lengths or more last year? He has won this race twice, First one he hacked up by 8 lengths and last year he hacked up by 11. You do not become a bad horse because of one bad run, Kauto has always hit fences and his jumping has never been perfect imo however his record speaks for itself, I would love to see Kauto win this and win it well.

Doesnt look good for Pierrot Lunaire :$

[JackJarvis]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Shows how far Binocular is clear to be honest if that complete DOG of a horse can win. Please please don't start with the Harchibald for the Champion Hurdle chants. NO CHANCE.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Thats good hes up wonder what Nichlls will do now with him??

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Disappointed with that run to be honest Tipster, He fell at the last but was never getting near the winner anyway.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Kempton Boxing day He did something similar last time out fell and stayed down for a long time. but luckily enough all three managed to get up, I think Divali Princess took a really really nasty fall at Towcester and i dont think he survived that fall seemed to be in bad distress.

[bowles10]

Re: Kempton Boxing day

Shows how far Binocular is clear to be honest if that complete DOG of a horse can win. Please please don't start with the Harchibald for the Champion Hurdle chants. NO CHANCE.

yep, its a dog isnt it having won 2 xmas hurdles & btn shhd in another. great training performance as always & a great ride. :nana No it cant win a champion hurdle, i agree with that comment

[Tipster5000]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Kauto Star looks like he is back to his best. Jumping for fun.

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Legend.....4 lengths or more? Albertas run 2nd. :D

[Tipster5000]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Fcuking Brilliant!!!!!!! Does it again at the last but no doubt about it back to his best :notworthy

[RussP]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Ok, Kauto puts in a short one at the last but what about the jumps at the 2nd and 3rd out? Absolutely amazing. At its best, the most brilliant jumper of fences IMO. Didn't have a bet but delighted for Kauto Star. My favourite horse by far:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[Spooner]

Re: Kempton Boxing day

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:40 - Without Kauto Star & Voy Por Ustedes (3 places paid)
Selection	Albertas Run (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	23/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 13.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Missed out on the 20/1 offered by Stan James earlier in the week but this still looks a great bet to me, Taking the front two out in the betting and the race looks pretty open, Looks to be out of sorts this year but Jonjo's horses are slowly coming back into form and im hoping that will bring improvment from Albertas Run, He should see the trip well and there is no doubting on the pick of his form then he would have a great chance, Basically you are getting 12/1 for him to finish in the top 5.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Kempton 14:40
Selection	Kauto Star Winning Distance? Selection: Over 4 Lengths
Strength	10/10
Date	26/12/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 5.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I was debating on this bet overnight and I still like it, One bad run last time out, What kind of price would he has been to win by 4 lengths or more last year? He has won this race twice, First one he hacked up by 8 lengths and last year he hacked up by 11. You do not become a bad horse because of one bad run, Kauto has always hit fences and his jumping has never been perfect imo however his record speaks for itself, I would love to see Kauto win this and win it well.

:nana Both landed.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Kempton Boxing day Nice One Spooner :clap

[stewartd14]

Re: Kempton Boxing day

1.30 Kempton Breedsbreeze @ 2/1

A novices chase that will no doubt tell us an awful lot for Cheltenham next March, but looking at the race tomorrow, I am taken by the price of Paul Nicholls runner, Breedsbreeze. The Market Man is likely to go off favourite on the back of one good run, and he didn’t really beat that much IMO. That was off a layoff, so he warrants respect, but I don’t believe he deserves to be favourite over Breedsbreeze, whom I fancy quite strongly for the Festival in March. He has put in 2 excellent runs over fences, and I think the step up in trip will bring out even more improvement. I feel he is head and shoulders above the rest of these, and is a good bet in my eyes.

Massini’s Maquire also has to warrant respect after an impressive chase debut. May be worth a saver.

2.40 Kempton Kauto Star @ 11/8

Whatever people may say, I cant desert this fella at what is now a ridiculously big price. Who on earth thought Kauto would be odds against for the King George. Last time was purely a glitch but lets not forget what this horse can do. He sometimes takes time to get into his stride and Kempton is an easier course to jump han Cheltenham anyway. This is a Gold Cup winner and a Gold Cup runner up. There is competition in this race, but lets face it his nearest rival is an unlikely stayer and nothing else in this race has run as to the form KS has. If he runs to form, he wins. So 5/4 to run to form, I am all over him.

A pleasing double for myself and Paul Nicholls. :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy to KAUTO STAR :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy to BREEDSBREEZE :notworthy To Harchibalds rider - cant praise the horse though as I hate his attitude.