Welsh National - Chepstow 27th Dec

[fintron]

Anyone had any ante-post bets on this? Interesting trends preview of the ATR site: http://www.attheraces.com/Jumps/article.asp?opt=Hot+Handicaps&hlid=232368

CORAL WELSH NATIONAL

Year	Winner	Trainer	Jockey	Age/Wgt	SP	Runners
2007	Miko De Beauchene	R Alner	A Thornton	7 10-5	13/2	18
2006	Halcon Genelardais	A King	W Hutchinson	6 11-3	7/1	18
2005	L'Aventure	P Nicholls	L Aspell	6 10-4	14/1	18
2004	Silver Birch	P Nicholls	R Walsh	7 10-5	10/3f	17
2003	Bindaree	N Twiston-Davies	C Llewellyn	9 10-9	10/1	14
2002	Mini Sensation	J O'Neill	A Dobbin	9 10-4	8/1	16
2001	Supreme Glory	P Murphy	L Aspell	8 10-0	10/1	13
2000	Jocks Cross	Miss V Williams	B Crowley (3)	9 10-4	14/1	19
1999	Edmond	H Daly	R Johnson	7 10-0	4/1	16
1998	Kendal Cavalier	N Hawke	B Fenton	8 10-0	14/1	14
1997	Earth Summit	N Twiston-Davies	T Jenks	9 10-13	25/1	14
1996	No Race

The likes of Halcon Generladias (+17), Joe Lively (+12), Nozic (+15), Notre Pere (+14), Always Waining (+13), High Chimes (+13) and Sea Diva (+20) are all running off marks much higher than that they last won off. Many of these have never won a handicap - Darkness, Glasker Mill, Verasi, Beat The Boys, Le Toscan and Sherwoods Folly amongst others. The ones that look to have claims at the weights are Miko de Beauchene (8 lb higher than last win), State of Play (+7), Cornish Sett (+7), Mon Mome (+4), Nenuphar Collonges (+9), Gyspy George (+8), Kings Euro (+8), Cresswell Willow (+4) and L'Aventure (-13). Mon Mome is interesting, running under a penalty after his recent win at Cheltenham. Aidan Coleman claims a useful three, so he is only 4 lbs higher for that win over Star de Mohaison. Soft ground poses no problems and stamina not an issue. 6/1 State of Play looks very interesting at a big EW price (25/1). Won the Hennessy two years ago off 145 and is 7 lbs higher here. Was 6th in the 2007 Gold Cup but hasn't raced much since. Won on his reappearance this year in the Charlie Hall, beating Ollie Magern and Snoopy Loopy (was weighted to beat OM on official figures for that G2 chase). Acts on soft, proven up to 27f. Won a novices chase here in 2005 so does have previous course form. Gypsy George is 8 lbs higher than when winning at Uttoxeter, but he looks a very progressive chaser. Has stamina to prove, but acts on soft and carries a handy weight that should help him round and trainer has considered this race for some time. It looks like he will get into the race. 12/1 Kings Euro is from inform trainer Tim Vaughan's yard. Won off 125 at Newbury in February and is up 8 lbs here. Loves soft ground, has won up to 23f before. 16/1 Cornish Sett goes for Paul Nicholls with Nick Schofield claiming 5 lbs. 8th in this race last year, looks to stay this far, handles soft, and won last time out off 7 lb lower mark in the Bagder Ales trophy at Wincanton.

[alexmac]

Re: Welsh National - Chepstow 27th Dec I like the chance of NOTRE PERE. Have been reading up about the race, and the past results shows us that you need to be a real stayer to get the trip, usually run in pretty poor underfoot conditions. Notre Pere does seem to stay all day, and with a bit of give in the ground he is often most effective. Yes, he has risen in the weights since his last win, but I do think that at around 12/1, there arn't many better each way prospects in the race.