bowles10 Posted December 21, 2008 Share Posted December 21, 2008 Interested to see how people analyse the form for certain meetings. Do we... read through the entire form lines of the horse check it has won over the distance check it likes the ground monitor trainer form only back horses that have a recent form line worth following back last time out winners I could go on there are so many imponderables involved. I know we have had a thread similar to this but with the big boxing day card looming, saturdays welsh national/ the big races in ireland & then Cheltenhams new year meeting, we have a number of big meetings to take in & so many decent horses on show. Just after what makes some of you tick. I am seriously considering soon a max number of bets / stake per week in 2009 & some of the above considerations play a part in that strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... also interested if anyone uses books or electronic databases or software i used to have the Racing results subscription (forget what it called but was a green covered book & they sent the inserts each week). Was a great book to have especially come Cheltenham etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 21, 2008 Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... I bought the raceform book for the flat this year but I don't think i'll get it again. It has results from every flat race but from the previous year. If you want to base your form study on last year that's fine but it just becomes so out of date straight away and you really need to take current form into account and a poor 2 year old can improve dramatically to become a wonderful 3 year old. Distance, ground and class are the most important factors for me. I'd rather have a horse though that is unproven on the ground than one that is proven to not go on the surface: I'd rather back a horse running 1st time on soft than one that has had 6 runs on soft and being unplaced every time. Class is a big factor that some may not find that important, at the top level so many fall short of being exceptional but some of the better horses also go off at ridiculous prices meaning loads of value for the next few in the betting. I also think previous meetings betwen horses are important and horses that have previously won a certain race. Look at Inglis Drever in last years World Hurdle, top class animal that gets the trip well and loves Cheltenham but stats say it can't win due to its age. You have to then take into account how many horses of the same age previously ran in that race, were they any good, what prices did they go off, what form were they in, were they proven at the trip, on the ground and on the course? If there have only been 3 other horses for example at that age and they were all 100-1 rags those stats are a bit misguided. One thing missing from the RP site (unless I've missed it) is the racecheck that is in the paper. After the horses form section it tells you how many wins, places and unplaced have come out of that particular race and it's these I follow up. A horse wins a class 4 handicap and there are 3 winners from that race, are those winners at a similar level or better and have they franked the form or have they just won poor class 6 races on the all weather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... being a trends beast phil, i thrive on past years results so take that into account especially for the big handicaps etc & following the draw etc one thing i think none of use should ever be swayed on is "price". I sometimes dont back horses due to price. I can fully understand Ginge's way of thinking in terms of value however my strategy this year includes ignoring the price of the animal as a factor of whether to back or not. If i dont think a horse is value but i think it will win, i dont see a problem with parting with my money, its the same the other way round in terms of big prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 21, 2008 Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... being a trends beast phil, i thrive on past years results so take that into account especially for the big handicaps etc & following the draw etc one thing i think none of use should ever be swayed on is "price". I sometimes dont back horses due to price. I can fully understand Ginge's way of thinking in terms of value however my strategy this year includes ignoring the price of the animal as a factor of whether to back or not. If i dont think a horse is value but i think it will win, i dont see a problem with parting with my money, its the same the other way round in terms of big prices. I waited to see the hurdles race before setting off to footy yesterday and was going to put a load of cash on Binocular at evens but I do really poor when I back under 2-1 so I left it alone and it won like a 1-5 shot. As it turned out evens was a very good price but not one I often back at. I suppose there are 2 ways of getting profit, good strike rate at lower odds or poorer strike rate at better odds, ideally good strike rate at good odds and then retire. If I tip something under 2's avoid it like the plague. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted December 21, 2008 Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... being a trends beast phil, i thrive on past years results so take that into account especially for the big handicaps etc & following the draw etc one thing i think none of use should ever be swayed on is "price". I sometimes dont back horses due to price. I can fully understand Ginge's way of thinking in terms of value however my strategy this year includes ignoring the price of the animal as a factor of whether to back or not. If i dont think a horse is value but i think it will win, i dont see a problem with parting with my money, its the same the other way round in terms of big prices. Sorry Bowles, nearly choked when I read this. Read a lot of your thoughts and comments in the past, and have a lot of respect for you and your ideas. However, on this occasion, your comment on "value" has prompted me to make a reply. When studying form to make my selections, I always maintain that "the ground" is the most important factor to consider. But making selections for the day is only half the battle. Whether or not to lay out the readies on a selection, the most important factor is "VALUE for money"!!!! It is imperitive that in order to make money out of this game, you must get value in your bets. As I always say : I'd rather miss a winner than back a loser!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Sorry Bowles, nearly choked when I read this. Read a lot of your thoughts and comments in the past, and have a lot of respect for you and your ideas. However, on this occasion, your comment on "value" has prompted me to make a reply. When studying form to make my selections, I always maintain that "the ground" is the most important factor to consider. But making selections for the day is only half the battle. Whether or not to lay out the readies on a selection, the most important factor is "VALUE for money"!!!! It is imperitive that in order to make money out of this game, you must get value in your bets. As I always say : I'd rather miss a winner than back a loser!! :ok Yep, no probs Nymrod, i was probably being a bit bold about that statement, the fact is, i dont think "value" is the be all & end all of the game as Ginge does. It is important though to have the "value" factor in your final choice. If i think a horse is priced wrongly but is still worth my pennies thats still a bet, whats wrong with backing an animal at 5/1 when you think it should be 8's or more? I dont think i am doing wrong here but must have the reasons for backing that up i.e I have to prove to myself why the bookies have priced it up at 5's & not 8's! Once i do that, i decide whether to back or not. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted December 21, 2008 Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... If i think a horse is priced wrongly but is still worth my pennies thats still a bet, whats wrong with backing an animal at 5/1 when you think it should be 8's or more? I dont think i am doing wrong here but must have the reasons for backing that up i.e I have to prove to myself why the bookies have priced it up at 5's & not 8's! Once i do that, i decide whether to back or not. :ok I hear what you are saying mate, BUT if I continually back 8/1+ shots at 5/1 then I am gonna LOSE in the long run. If I back 5/1 shots at 8/1+ then I am gonna WIN big time!!! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... I hear what you are saying mate, BUT if I continually back 8/1+ shots at 5/1 then I am gonna LOSE in the long run. If I back 5/1 shots at 8/1+ then I am gonna WIN big time!!! :cheers Understood, as long as they win. I do believe that we all know what price a horse should be (no, stop there, there are so many punters out there who don't & thats one of the problems!). My jumps thread last year demonstrated what i felt was value, i recall in about the 1st 20 bets, i beat the SP 18 or 19 times. It still doesnt mean they were value as some ran like donkeys & others did win. my aim is normally to beat SP. That i believe is the aim of 96% of the betting public, the other 4% include you & ginge :D who do their own book to come up with the value. question, was punchestown's value yesterday, Ginge got 7/2, it won at 3/1 what was its chances of winning ? 5/2 i.e 40% or lower, if it was 5/2 would ginge have backed it? we have had this debate before on here & it does have various opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 21, 2008 Share Posted December 21, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... How can anyone ignore the price? With an attitude like that you've got no chance of succeeding long term. Sure you can have a good few months, year, may be even a few years but things will catch up with you. Learn the table of odds and chances and its significance now! What should you take in to account? Everything. Distance, going, temperament, draw advantage, jumping ability, headgear, pace in the race. By that I mean does the horse usually front run, race prominently, track pace, mid-div, held up or dropped out. And is that likely to favour him in this race? Are there others who are likely to lead? Will he get a soft lead? Is the likely pace going to suit? Jockeyship, trainer form, trainers record with that particular type of horse, trainers record first time out, how good is its form? Is it in form? Out of form? Was the trainer out of form when it ran last time but now in form? And vice versa. Was there a valid reason for the horse not running to form? Is it well handicapped? Poorly handicapped? Is it improving, on the downgrade? Is the track going to suit? Undulating, flat, galloping, sharp, right handed, left handed. Above all how likely is it to run to it's rating and how likely is it that that rating will be good enough to win. Have I missed anything? Then analyse what chance each horse has of winning and back any horse you believe is over priced. Let's say there is a four horse race. Say yYou have worked it out as: A 40% 6/4, B 30% almost 9/4, C 20% 4/1, D 10% 9/1. All adding up to 100% obviously. If the best prices you can find are: A 5/4, B 2/1, C 100/30 and D 12/1. Then despite believing D has the worst chance of winning D must be the bet. Because if you are right, analysing it as a 10% chance; a 10% strike rate at 12/1 would show a profit. A 40% SR at 5/4, 30% at 2/1 or 20% at 100/30 would show a loss. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 22, 2008 Author Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... didnt say "ignore the price" just i dont get "swayed" by it. Granted as i have explained above in my replies, i will consider it but it is not my final choice whether to back it or not, there are the other factors i take into account also, many of which you listed in your reply:ok. one thing i think none of use should ever be swayed on is "price". I sometimes dont back horses due to price. I can fully understand Ginge's way of thinking in terms of value however my strategy this year includes ignoring the price of the animal as a factor of whether to back or not. If i dont think a horse is value but i think it will win, i dont see a problem with parting with my money, its the same the other way round in terms of big prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Bowles, if you think a horse should be 8/1, what you are saying is you believe a horse has an 11% chance of winning. 5/1 = 16.7% ie. You need a better than 16.7% strike rate on your bets at 5/1 to show a profit. It does not matter if this 5/1 shot wins, if you do not win more than 16.7% of your bets at 5/1. Why would you back a horse you believe has an 11% chance of winning at 5/1 knowing an 11% SR at 5/1 will result in a loss? Yes I would have passed on Punchestowns at 5/2 because I made it a 26% chance, almost 11/4. I also backed Niche Market because I thought it had a 4% (true 25/1 shot) and was available at 43/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Yes Bowles you did say "my strategy this year includes ignoring the price". Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Understood, as long as they win. I do believe that we all know what price a horse should be (no, stop there, there are so many punters out there who don't & thats one of the problems!). My jumps thread last year demonstrated what i felt was value, i recall in about the 1st 20 bets, i beat the SP 18 or 19 times. It still doesnt mean they were value as some ran like donkeys & others did win. my aim is normally to beat SP. That i believe is the aim of 96% of the betting public, the other 4% include you & ginge :D who do their own book to come up with the value. question, was punchestown's value yesterday, Ginge got 7/2, it won at 3/1 what was its chances of winning ? 5/2 i.e 40% or lower, if it was 5/2 would ginge have backed it? we have had this debate before on here & it does have various opinions. I think there is a wee bit of a misunderstanding here. When I stress the "Value" aspect of a bet, it is not the be all or end all. If I calculate a horses chance of winning a given race as being 10/1 then just because the bookies are giving 20/1, that does not mean to say that I am going to back it even though it is "Value for money". As I said before, I evaluate a race based on various form aspects and make a selection. If I think that this horse has a good chance of winning a particular race and the odds I am offered are larger than I think they should be, then I will back it. I will NOT back a horse just because the odds are higher than I think they should be if I don't think it will win. Remember, SP's are determined by Joe Public. How many times do you see a longshot being backed into a short price only to run like a donkey? Therefore, trying to beat SP is not a goal of mine. However, seeing Joe Public piling their money onto a selection allowing the "True" favourite drift out is something I love to see. To conclude, Selections based on form. Only Selections become BETS based on value. NOT trying to argue with you Bowles, just comparing thoughts!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Just seen Ginges reply above. Whilst I agree in principle with what he says, it is not a staking plan that I would use. I think that you would have to a hell of a large Bank to allow for what could be considerable losing runs before getting your odds balance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... You say "we all know what price a horse should be". I am sorry but that is clearly not true. Bookmakers produce their early prices using odds compilers. They work out what percentage chance they believe each horse has got of winning. Then add the bookies mark up. If we all, or even most of us knew what a horses price should be then the bookies would all have the same early prices. And nobody would back anything because we would agree with those prices. Nothing would be value. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Nymrod, No you do not need a big bank because there are often more than one horse in a race that is value. For example that 43/1 winner I had yesterday. If you add all the prices of the 5 horses I thought were value (backed) it comes to almost 32%. So my price taken on the race was overall almost 85/40. Though there are occasions where I only back one horse, e.g. Medermit on friday at 20/1. I know Timeform Jim McGrath bets exactly the way you do Nymrod, ignoring the bigger priced value horses. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Before I learnt the "true odds", I went out trying to beat SP but as Nymrod eludes to, SP's are only what the general public thinks is a fair price. Just because someone gets better than SP does not make it value, because there is no knowing whether you, I or the public are right. If I believe something has a 20% true 4/1 chance of winning and it is 5/1. If it drifts to 6/1 does not mean it was not value at 5/1. 5/1 might have been value, just that 6/1 would have been even better value. And vice versa, one backed at bigger than SP might not be true value. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Mowgli, If I were you I'd consider buying the previous years Timeform Perspective. Much more info in it for under £30. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Just like to say I agree with Nymrods version of value, you should never back a horse you dont think has any chance of winning, no matter what value it is. Just goes against all my principles. Anyway to answer Bowles first question; Rob, I have had a couple of different versions of software on the PC, the best was Raceform but just didnt have the time to do it justice. So much info it was untrue, daily downloads of form, decs, trends etc.. also had a facility to rate your own races, something i used to do and loved it but takes over your life, might do it again one day but narrow it down to say just hurdlers or chasers. The ratings i found were very similar to the free ones on the RP, so anyone out there going to buy it for the ratings, dont bother. I'm not a speed ratings man so didnt use them, too many variables in pace over the sticks, maybe ok on the flat but not my cup of tea. The OEM computer formbook was ok but again you just need to be full time to make it work, one good thing about that one was the facility (at extra cost) to feed data into any system simulation using 5 years form. If you wanted to know how many second fav's won sellers at RH tracks, it would tell you!! Loved this idea but maybe when i'm retired eh! Used to love the Timeform black book, i take it its till around, they always use to preach the ground was the number one factor in any race reading excercise. Probably the first thing I look at to be honest. Problem with that these days the ground seems to change by the hour, did it used to be like that? Too many NR's aswell these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Just like to say I agree with Nymrods version of value, you should never back a horse you dont think has any chance of winning, no matter what value it is. Just goes against all my principles. I agree with this for the most part. I am more swayed into NOT backing a selection due to the price being shorter than I believe it should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nymrod Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... I agree with this for the most part. I am more swayed into NOT backing a selection due to the price being shorter than I believe it should be. :clapWell said Billy, therein lies the essence to successful punting. Having the discipline NOT to back your selection because the price is too short, is the key to making a profit!! If I had the sense to say that at the start of the thread when commenting on Bowles "value" statement, then it might have saved all this aggro! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Interesting debate. For what its worth, I fall into the value camp. Every horse has its own price with me and if I think its too short I generally won't play. That isn't to say I won't back short priced horses, if I think Fyodor is a 1/2 shot today and he's 8/11 or whatever I'll be getting involved. The original post asked how we each analyse the form of races. As I'm mainly a handicap man I first draw up a table including the horses official OR, highest ever winning OR and latest OR. The seems to give an immediate indication of who are the main contenders for the race and I tend to ignore horses that have over 7 lbs or so improvement to find. I concentrate on horses from the top of the weights - despite the efforts of the handicapper those racing from the top of the handicap do win more than those at the bottom. This is especially true on the AW where top-weight animals have a really good record and the top weight animal is always my first port of call for study. After I've listed the OR table I look at last time out form as it is the best indication of a horses health, unless we have inside info which the public is oblivious to. If there is a genuine reason for poor last time out form (turf form if race in question is on AW), poor draw or traffic trouble I'll still continue reading the form. I check going, distance and class, working on the assumption that horses have to find several pounds of improvement every time they step up in grade, or have to find less if dropping in grade. When I've outlined what I think are the lively contenders I then base my final selection on pace and the draw. Kempton and Chester are the two course i have found the draw most important at, less so at the likes of Lingfield and Wolves. Pace was something I have been ignorant to in the past but I quite recently bought Beyer on Speed to read up on this and I have found it has helped me quite a bit, focussing on hold up horses when a potentially damaging duel for the lead is on. Claimers and sellers are ideal betting races and I do like to get stuck into them. My first task with them is to work out who is best off at the weights, see how they have been performing recently, and if they are in good form, back them. Favourites do well in that type of race so I see little point in looking for a big priced upset. Maidens are harder to work out but I took a leaf out of BTP's book and look for horses that have ran in races which have thrown up multiple winners subsequently. I nearly babbed myself when I saw Amber Queen at York earlier in the season as she'd ran in a rock solid maiden that had thrown up many winners. She was something like 5/1 on course and that was my biggest bet of the season. I don't play in maidens often but Kaolak won well yesterday and was another picked using that strategy. I haven't got the hang of pattern races yet and that is an area I need to work on next season. I think I do alright in listed races (generally look in the first three in the betting as per David Duncan) but anything above that my betting has proven a bit hit and miss. I found Conduit in the St Leger using a trends approach, but when I've used trends since I've done very little. I've not managed to crack the jumps either so enjoy reading peoples posts in that area. Its not an area I'm wanting to crack really though as I'd prefer to specialise on the AW, just playing occassionally in the big meetings for a bit of interest for fun. You can't master every type of race can you and as I very rarely watch races I get as much enjoyment as watching Smalljohn romp a Wolverhampton seller on Friday night as I do seeing a favourite win over the jumps as its merely a result flashing up on a screen and money going into or out of my account. When I have watched races I do get a bigger buzz out of the jumps though. I just can't seem to win regularly at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... There are so many factors, especially during the turf season. Too many to go into really. Fin is correct, although I don't play in many maidens, I do use them as a source for future winners of a whole range of races. I've always played in sellers and claimers, claimers more so. Official ratings are important but are only a guide - you need to be certain a horse is true to this rating. Recent form can help you in finding out. Last A/W season a horse like Blue Sky Thinking was running in claimers when rated around 90 - now he looks a good thing at the weights but his mark of 90 was unrealistic, it had been a long time since he'd run in handicaps, the mark was mythical. I'd much rather back a horse against this type of horse that had recent form off a mark of say 80 for example - even off levels. A lot comes down to feel/judgement. When betting in handicaps, the judgement of official ratings is important. All about trying to find a mistake by the handicapper. My main tactics... horses that are attractively treated when first given their handicap marks - I can't always explain it but sometimes you just know when a horse has been given a chance by the handicapper, they do make massive errors. Vine Street is one that springs to mind recently - very lucky to get an opening mark in the 60s. Sometimes I will have a list of handicappers to follow due to this theory and it can pay to follow horses for some time, if you believe that are that well handicapped. Again a lot comes down to feel/judgement. Looking for a horse dropping in the weights, although a lenient drop in the weights, if a horse is simply out of form then no ease in the weights will bring him back to form. Less about feel/judgement here, it's a more scientific way if you like. I know Fin and Russ will agree with some/most of this. With big field handicaps, I'll always try and find a well handicapped "up and coming" horse rather the ones well handicapped due to dropping down the weightsd - so it'll be a case of using the first method if possible. Pace is almost guaranteed but the position of the pace is key, so knowing where the front runners are drawn for the "straight" handicaps is vital. Suitability of tracks is a common overlooked thing on the turf also. I could go on but Beowulf is on Sky and Angelina Jolie is about to pop out the water - yes I know it's a cartoon, but OH MY GOD. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... A question for Ginge and the value followers. You've sorted out the 3 mile Hypohetical Chase at Sandown and backed McCoys mount at what you consider to be the the value price of 3/1. Bearing in mind that you take jockeyship into account, and the fact that in this hypothetical drama, McCoy fell in the race before your horse is due to run, and is injured, and the only available replacement is a 7 pound claimer, do you stand by your bet, or do you lay it back as it's no longer value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... A question for Ginge and the value followers. You've sorted out the 3 mile Hypohetical Chase at Sandown and backed McCoys mount at what you consider to be the the value price of 3/1. Bearing in mind that you take jockeyship into account, and the fact that in this hypothetical drama, McCoy fell in the race before your horse is due to run, and is injured, and the only available replacement is a 7 pound claimer, do you stand by your bet, or do you lay it back as it's no longer value? Depends on the price you can lay it for. The price available is probably far bigger with a 7lb claimer onboard. So the question is: Is it now worth laying? If they have still under estimated its chance I am more likely to go in again to back it. If the news of a jockey change is not widely known I might be able to lay it off. If the price is neither worth backing or laying I just accept I have a poor value bet and hope for the best. There is no point in laying off if the price you have to lay it at is not value. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Oh blimey......... I just go by the name and wether they're grey or not......... :unsure:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted December 22, 2008 Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... Oh blimey......... I just go by the name and wether they're grey or not......... :unsure:tongue2 Thought you describe yourself as a "shrewdie". You've got to be an anorak to be a shrewdie.:lol Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 22, 2008 Author Share Posted December 22, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... some great debate in here guys thanks. The value question will run & run Perhaps i do need to take a bit of time to look at what Ginge is saying though, i appreciate the comments/feedback:ok i fcukin love this sport! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 23, 2008 Share Posted December 23, 2008 Re: Just a quick question.... As I'm mainly a handicap man I first draw up a table including the horses official OR, highest ever winning OR and latest OR. The seems to give an immediate indication of who are the main contenders for the race and I tend to ignore horses that have over 7 lbs or so improvement to find. I like this strategy. Obviously, you need to take into account improving types but I prefer to focus on the seasoned campaigners at handicap level. Every horse has its class and has its mark - only when race conditions tick those boxes do I get involved. I concentrate on horses from the top of the weights - despite the efforts of the handicapper those racing from the top of the handicap do win more than those at the bottom. Absolutely agree. I love backing horses off or very near top weight that drop in class and mark. Most of my big handicap winners have come from finding these types. It goes back to my point above - each horse has its class and mark. If there is a genuine reason for poor last time out form (turf form if race in question is on AW), poor draw or traffic trouble I'll still continue reading the form. Definitely. Quite often you can get an inflated price on a horse but taking this into account. I remember backing one last season that had raced alone on its last 2 outings, against the draw. When it had conditions in its favour, it burst through late to win at 8/1. There is no room for guesswork, work on fact! I check going, distance and class, working on the assumption that horses have to find several pounds of improvement every time they step up in grade, or have to find less if dropping in grade. Yes, yes and yes. When I've outlined what I think are the lively contenders I then base my final selection on pace and the draw. No matter how good a horse is, it will not win from a bad draw - fact! Why so many people ignore this absolutely baffles me. It is also one way to identify a weak favourite. Pace too is important - not only do you have to look at the other runners (ie, how many front runners, etc), you should also consider the track. York, for example, generally favours those racing up with the pace. When betting in handicaps, the judgement of official ratings is important. All about trying to find a mistake by the handicapper. Key comment here - 'a mistake by the handicapper'. So many times I have seen horses drop in mark when racing in a grade way too high, over the wrong trip, on the wrong ground or from an impossible draw, to name but a few. When conditions suit, you might just have found yourself a great bet. Looking for a horse dropping in the weights, although a lenient drop in the weights, if a horse is simply out of form then no ease in the weights will bring him back to form. Down in class, down in mark is generally my starting point on turf. But agree with the form comment. Work on fact! I know Fin and Russ will agree with some/most of this. :ok With big field handicaps, I'll always try and find a well handicapped "up and coming" horse rather the ones well handicapped due to dropping down the weightsd - so it'll be a case of using the first method if possible. Big field 'Heritage' handicaps often need a different approach. Improving types generally go well in these and good form lto is normally crucial. The ability to stay over further is usually a plus because of the breakneck pace on too. Overall, this covers a lot of my thinking. I might add more later. Great thread:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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