Great Leighs 18/12/08

[fintron]

:ok

[fintron]

Re: Great Leighs 18/12/08 7.20 Great Leighs Just a field of four here for this novices race over 6f. Noverre to Go looks best off at the weights, rated 89 but conceding just 2 lbs to Moscow Eight and Newyln Art (would be 4lbs and 15 lbs better off in a handicap) and infact receiving 7 lbs from recent nursery winner Lesley's Choice (who is 19 lbs wrong based on official ratings). Tom Dascombe's colt won a nursery handicap at Lingfield off 82 last time out, justifying favouritism in another small field, and he'll hope to do the same again here under the same jockey and over the same trip. He should prove too good here. Evs, Bet 365. 7.50 Great Leighs A staying handicap here and Weybridge Light will be hoping for another big run at a track at which he seems to do well. He's become a bit of a Thursday night regular here and won his first two races since coming over from Ireland before going down narrowly to Azabu Jaban, under a penalty, last time out. That rival was weighted to reverse the form, and it is interesting that the trainer has ditched the 7 lb claimer from last time out and replaces with Dane O'Neil. He's 6 lbs above his last win, which did come at this level, and the fact he drops in grade from his last run may also help. Dayia won a listed bumper at Sandown and has been knocking on the door on the flat so could be the main danger. She was backed off the boards on a previous run here when losing by only 0.56 lengths in a maiden and he was beaten by just 0.94 on her handicap debut last time off 69 by Master of Arms. Up 3 lbs here, but clearly has ability and potential for improvement. 7/2 Bet 365. 8.20 Great Leighs The highlight of the card is this class 2, 5 furlong dash. Top-weight Fyodor was a course winner in November but a 7 lb hike in the weights and a step up in class (to this level) found him out on his next run, and it looks like the handicapper may be in control for now. Ebraam hasn't won since February, but that win did come at this level and off 93, suggesting he has a sniff running off 97 here. A decent second to Warsaw at Kempton in September off 98 suggests he is up to winning off this mark if on song. Paul Howling's decision to step him up to 7f on his last two runs may have stretched his stamina a little, as all wins have come over 6f or shorter and he drops back in trip today. At Kempton three runs ago he was running over 6f and had every chance before finding no extra in the final 100 yards. Matsunosuke has been running consistently but until the assessor shows him a bit of lee-way a win off 90 in this grade may be beyond him. I keep writing off Doubtful Sound at my peril and he hosed up last time out in a race where I'd backed the second and third. He's clearly in good form by the jockey does me no favours and a 9 lb rise and a sharp rise in class may bring an end to his winning sequence. The Game runs under a penalty after winning at Lingfield last time out. He must prove himself at this higher level though, and that, coupled with the penalty, means I don't fancy him for today. Harry Up won for Jamie Spencer at Wolverhampton last month but failed to follow up last time under Neil Callan. That was probably due to a poor draw, but I have a sneaky suspicion that he isn't quite good enough to win a race at this level. Catlin also rides and I jinx anything he's ever on so thats another reason why I'm passing over. First Order did me over when I was on Southandwest the other week. I dismissed it because Ann Stokell was on and whilst she rides again today, the real reason I'm opposing is because he's up in class. I'll lap up the 9's on Ebraam with Paddypower all day long. 8.50 Great Leighs Grande Caiman won impressively last time out beating the course and distance specialist War of the Roses at Lingfield. Richard Hannon's colt is now running off a career high mark of 99 because of a penalty, but won in this grade last time and has a excellent record on the all-weather (all five of his wins have come on this surface). I think he arrives in much stronger form than many of these and although Slip and King's Head may get a little closer to GC, I think he's still worth backing to confirm placings. 2/1 Bet 365