Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Fair point Ash, though I must say my general impression from the Aussies is that they don't seem too motivated to try and keep their ranking (perhaps they are resigned to losing it). It could of course be a front for the media but that's just not the vibe I have. I also think Graeme Smith is a good captain to have here. He seems to me to have outstanding mental strength and is just so determined this tour. Either way, theres got to be some reasonable value in the Proteas. I see you are interested in Clarke for hi bat too. MacDonald is unproven and Haddin can lack temprament. It could be a very long tail for Australia (No Lee either). Not saying that this goes against Clarke, but I feel that perhaps in general there will be an opportunity here, perhaps in the 2nd inns hi bat market where a smaller score will win it. I am thinking a post-collapse Haddin flurry or a Mitch Johnson at #8 could possibly offer some value.

[Ashtee]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Hi Bat 1st Innings - Australia Well, there is 101.00 Johnson at IAS/Canbet and I had something on that. Clarke is value at 6.00 (6.50 @ Boylesports) IMO. A few other blokes form can't be trusted, of course. Ponting straight off two big knocks. I did take Clarke @ 1.92 again to beat Hussey. Spewing I missed out when the odds changed while trying to take 1.92 Haddin to beat McDonald. A fair bit of talk about Smith's elbow despite stating he's 90% chance to play. I notice Betfair price has blown out to 3.45 after that news. I think the Australian media has tried to blame a few things thus far without properly stating the obvious that the curent team just isn't good enough at present.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Decent last test for me and I've already got the SA outright in and Steyn takes a 6 wicket lead into this test for me too. Not bothering with a P/L having changed staking policy half way through the series so just going with bets for this 3rd test. 5 of them. 3pts South Africa to win 3rd Test 5/2 Sportingbet South Africa wrapped the series up with a game to spare after a convincing win at Melbourne and they come to Sydney seeking a win to give them the number one spot in the ICC test rankings. They also arrive in Sydney in a much better shape than Australia personnel wise. South Africa will go in here unchanged from the 1st two tests after Ashwell Prince failed a fitness test on his broken thumb. Graeme Smith plays in this match despite his elbow injury but will go home after this match. To be fair to Australia there was a time in both tests so far that they were in control of each match but they still managed to lose both games. They'll be without Brett Lee for this match after he was ruled out. Andrew Symonds was another who has been ruled out with injury while Stuart Clark continues to miss out with injury too. Andrew McDonald replaces Symonds in the side but the big Aussie could be a huge miss as he averages 94.33 in test matches on this ground. Ex Worcestershire bowler Doug Bollinger will make his debut in Brett Lee's place and he'll take the new ball with Peter Siddle. That leaves Mitchell Johnson as the most experienced seamer. South Africa are buzzing at the minute. They've been the best test side in the world in 2008 and I think they'll continue their good form in 2009. It's hard to see where Australia are going to get 20 wickets from and that's a minimum requirement to win a test match. South Africa are more settled and I'll take them to complete the clean sweep. 6pts A 6 to be hit on Day 1 5/4 Sportingbet This is rapidly becoming my most favourite bet in cricket. 6's are much more prominent in test cricket these days with the more attacking intent that twenty20 and the 50 over game has brought in. Both 1st days in this series so far has seen a 6 hit, in fact there's been more than one six hit on both 1st days so far. 6 of the last 7 test at the SCG have seen a 6 hit on the 1st day and the only one that hasn't didn't see a full day's play on the opening day. The SCG isn't the biggest ground going around and 6's are easily hittable here so at 5/4 I'll take the 6 to be hit on the 1st day's play. 4pts M.Clarke's Performance Pts 97&Over 5/6 Bet365 Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket. Michael Clarke has been in good form with the bat recently and although he doesn't have the greatest record here I would expect him to continue that good form. He could easily cover this total with the bat but with Australia only having Nathan Hauritz as a spin option in this match Clarke may well bowl a few overs in this test. You only have to ask the Indian's what can happen when he bowls a few overs here after he took 3 wickets in 7 balls in win the test match here last year. Clarke's also a decent fielder and could easily grab a couple of catches which makes this total appealing. It will need a significant contribution with the bat but with scores of 62, 25, 88 and 29 in the series so far, you would expect that to happen. With points possibly coming from all 3 avenues I'll take the over here. 3pts R.Ponting's Match Runs 88&Over 5/6 Bet365 After his 1st ball duck in the 1st innings at Perth, Ricky Ponting has put together scores of 32, 101 and 99 in the 3 innings since then. He clearly comes to Sydney in good form and like most grounds in the country the SCG is a place he likes batting at. He averages 75.41 in test matches at this ground so even an average innings here would almost cover this total. We saw in 2005 when the pressure was on that Ponting can respond with a good volume of runs and even though his side can't win the series now he won't want to lose 3-0. I expect Ponting to go well again here and over the course of two innings I would expect the Aussie captain to clear 88 runs. 1pt ew A.de Villiiers Top South Africa Batsman (1st Inns Only) 6/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3) AB de Villiers had an excellent match with the bat in Perth, hitting 63 and 106 not out. In fact that 63 was good enough to joint top score in that innings and even though he only scored 7 in his only innings in Melbourne, his antics at Perth shows us he's in good form with the bat. The key to picking a top bat in Sydney is someone who can play spin well. Ashwell Prince would have been the main candidate there but he's been ruled out. de Villiers can also play spin well and that gives him an advantage when it comes to scoring runs here. He's in good form with the bat and conditions should suit the SA youngster so he's well worth an ew bet.

[Ashtee]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Good write up Kev and good luck with those :hope. I got some 8.50 Duminey for high 1st innings bat. Displayed exceptional competence to all the types of bowling in Melbourne. I notice Australia have won something like thirteen of their last fifteen tests at the SCG. I guess that just helps us get some juicy odds on South Africa, though.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Can't you Aussies build a decent sightscreen ;) :lol:lol

Good write up Kev and good luck with those :hope. I got some 8.50 Duminey for high 1st innings bat. Displayed exceptional competence to all the types of bowling in Melbourne. I notice Australia have won something like thirteen of their last fifteen tests at the SCG. I guess that just helps us get some juicy odds on South Africa, though.

I nearly took Duminy too mate but I've just got a feeling about AB. Liking your Hayden bet on SP. He looks all at sea in the one over he's faced so far :eek.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Bravo with the 6 bet, Kev. As it transpired the planets had to align with Harris to Haddin. Ker..ching!The draw is still just favourite, which is nonsense. This SCG track will deteriorate as we go on. Weather is out of the equation. Aus 370 first dig might make it an even game but don't think they will get there. SA still the best bet.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Had to wait a while for the 6 but Haddin duly obliged. Clarke's looking good for his performance too. Only down side of the day is the Ponting duck but I'm happy enough going into day 2. Agree with Pie I think. I'd just about rather be on SA. All about Clarke tomorrow though. He could be the difference between 320 all out and 400.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Top work today Kev. Looking ok for your hi-bat system too. :clap Not had any bets yet but considering Kallis for top bat. Has been in decent enough form without making a big score. A fairly inexperienced bowling attack wont threaten him too much and with Smith having trouble playing longer innings the likely score to beat might be lower.

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Bridge too far for Saffers, dammit. Game well advanced, Aus to go hard (and lose wickets) tomorrow; result pitch. Think SA will cave second knock. Eyes on return bout on home soil.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series South Africa's chances went with Smith's knuckle unfortunately. Saying that, Australia have been in this position twice in the series so far and haven't come close to winning either match.

[Big Bets]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series You're right Kev, on current form you can't trust Australia to a) Post a big 2nd inns score; or b) Bowl the Saffies out again However after looking at the match closely yesterday it is hard not to see how badly this wicket is playing up. The wicket is showing a lot of gremlins. Australia should put this match away. With two more hot days predicted the wicket is only going to get worse and crumble more around the cracks and prove very hard to survive on. Another factor firmly in the Aussies favour is that Smith will take no further part in this match so only 9 2nd innings wickets are required. Also with the series already won and without their captain South Africa may lack a little of the resolve they have displayed earlier throughout this series. Back Australia to win the test at $1.65 with Betfair

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Good shout BB. SA made you sweat a bit though eh :lol. Excellent series both from a punting point of view and the cricket. Looking forward to the return series.

[Big Bets]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Thanks Kev. I was counting the cash when the Aussies got the 9th wicket, and then I thought I was dreaming when I saw Smith coming out! Courageous effort by him in what was an excellent series. Going to have to do a bit of homework on the South African schedule and ovals before the next test series takes place. Should be a cracker.

[Ashtee]

Re: Cricket: Australia vs South Africa Test Series Pathetic that they wouldn't bowl it anywhere near his broken hand though! This non competitive dumbed-down trend to sport is starting to annoy me (some more examples; 20/20 cricket, etiquette ahead of rules, etc).