AJ Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Played a hand today that i'd like some feedback on, thought about it a bit and not sure if I made the correct choice Double or Nothing Turbo on Stars, 6 handed so at the bubble. As you can see below, I have an M of over 6, four of us are comfortable, two short stacks. Blinds and Antes starting to bite I'm on the big blind, if i fold here I give this guy 420 chips and move him closer to the pack, scared of overly passive bubble play and getting dragged into a dog fight, but at the same time I don't want to give a cheap double up. I have zero read on the guy at the time, never played against him before, frankly haven't being paying any real attention to the game. Think he's been fairly tight Would llike to ICM it, but am really struggle to put him on a hand range What should my call be ? *********** # 1 ************** PokerStars Game #22803689651: Tournament #126208250, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/12/10 19:16:24 ET Table '126208250 1' 10-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 2: paolol67 (1165 in chips) Seat 4: dusty351 (2320 in chips) Seat 5: Griffin2400 (1195 in chips) Seat 6: 69-SandS (4645 in chips) Seat 7: asjohnstone (2555 in chips) Seat 8: passer122333 (3120 in chips) paolol67: posts the ante 20 dusty351: posts the ante 20 Griffin2400: posts the ante 20 69-SandS: posts the ante 20 asjohnstone: posts the ante 20 passer122333: posts the ante 20 69-SandS: posts small blind 100 asjohnstone: posts big blind 200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to asjohnstone [Jh Kh] passer122333: folds paolol67: folds dusty351: folds Griffin2400: raises 975 to 1175 and is all-in 69-SandS: folds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff There's an argument for both - if he is a very good cooler player then he will be making this move with any two considering who is in the blinds. With no reads/history you cannot assume this is the case though. Therefore it's a fold. You're in a fair position with the guy in 2nd to your left, you can put some pressure on his in future hands in order to keep yourself from feeling the blind/ante pinch. There more I think of it, the more the argument for calling weakens. Unless I have proof he is a great/pro cooler player I'm passing, even if I do (and I'm beating a lot of his range) then I may still wait. Hope this makes sense, it feels a little jumbled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff For me that's quite an easy fold (although I can see the arguement for calling). If you double him up you're then in the position where you have to be looking to make a move. paolol67 is about to go throught he blinds and therefore is likely to be shoving within the next 3 hands. With 2 big stacks around, they can call him with any half decent hand. Whilst you can put him on a wide range of hands and you could well be ahead with your hand, equally you could be behind and you could drag yourself into the dog fight from a very comfortable position. If he is a good player who could shove this position with ATC then you also know that he knows that paolol has to make the first move. In that same position I think you'd need some sort of hand in order to take the risk (any pp, A high, etc) in that position. He's also shoving against the big chip leader who could call with any half decent hand. Therefore I believe you can narrow down his range somewhat, and you're behind to a lot of that range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Played a hand today that i'd like some feedback on, thought about it a bit and not sure if I made the correct choice Fold - 3 players to go through the blinds after you have smaller stacks than you Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Would llike to ICM it, but am really struggle to put him on a hand range Re ICM: start with top 50%, then top 30%, then top 20% and see what results you get. I would discount ATC as I don't think he is that desperate (just yet). Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Looks like a dead straightforward fold to me :unsure But lets ICM it anyway ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff If you fold, then you have 86.907% tournament equity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff I wont bother with the split pot scenario (unless it's close, but I'm not expecting it to be) If you call and win, then you have burst the bubble and have 100% tournament equity. If you call and lose then you have 70.498% tournament equity (still high - maybe it's closer than I thought....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Break even point is that you need 55.7% chance of winning the hand (if that is the case, the decision you make is irrelevent) EquityFold86.91%OddsEquityEVCall and Win55.7%100%55.7%Call and Lose44.3%70.50%31.2%86.9% If you are less than 55.7% then you should fold. If you are better than 55.7% then you should call. KJo is 54.1% to beat a top 50% hand KJo is 56% to beat a top 60% hand So your decision is - could he be shoving looser than top 60% hands? If he can do this with K2o, Q4o, J6o, 94s or T2s then you can call. If he cannot do it with those cards then you should probably fold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Looking at the hand again - I dont think he should be shoving that loose, because the pressure is on paolol in the first instance.... so I think I fold..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 11, 2008 Author Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff KJo is 54.1% to beat a top 50% hand KJo is 56% to beat a top 60% hand So your decision is - could he be shoving looser than top 60% hands? If he can do this with K2o, Q4o, J6o, 94s or T2s then you can call. If he cannot do it with those cards then you should probably fold. My KJ was suited. Not sure how much difference that makes to the figures though. After reading here I'm tending towards a fold as the correct choice. Afterwards I researched him and discovered he's a dreadful player, -20% over 1000 games. If I'd known that at the time does it help the decision either way ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff My KJ was suited. Not sure how much difference that makes to the figures though. After reading here I'm tending towards a fold as the correct choice. Afterwards I researched him and discovered he's a dreadful player, -20% over 1000 games. If I'd known that at the time does it help the decision either way ? No, not really (in both cases) suited cards are about 2% better (give or take) regardless of his stats, its still an easy fold for me Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Oops - that does actually have a bit of an impact on the "tipping point" to his range - now it's around the Top 47% mark ..... so if you think he would shove with hands like 33, K4o,Q7o,T5s,J4s or Q2s then you can call, if you cannot see him shoving with any of those hands, then you should probably fold. Not sure I see him laying down any pocket pair to be honest :unsure But that may be cancelled out by hands like Q3s, J5s which are in the top 47% range on sharkscope (where 33 isnt). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Knowing he's a bad player can help you determine a range for him - however if you dont know how he's a bad player, then it can be trickier. Most bad players are too loose though.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff The holdemresources.net solution is here - http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=200&sb=100&ante=20&structure=0.2%2C0.2%2C0.2%2C0.2%2C0.2&s1=3120&s2=1165&s3=2320&s4=1195&s5=4645&s6=2555&s7=&s8=&s9= I've questioned it before, but think it's right (in its own way) - where it falls down ..... it assumes your opponents will fold when they should, whereas they actually call a lot more liberally than they should - when they call too liberally, they lose out, but so do you!! So by overestimating your fold equity, it overestimates the hands you should shove with.....there is some interest in the results though (if you can get your head around the "errors" it produces).... So, assuming everyone plays "perfectly", then the button should shove with: 43.0%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K7o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 65s 54s The SB and BB should call with: 10.3%, 77+ A8s+ A9o+ KQs That leaves your KJs insufficient to call with - assuming your opponent shoved with the perfect range (and assuming that your response would be perfect)..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 11, 2008 Author Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff So, it should have been an easy fold. That was my post game thoughts as well. I called though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 11, 2008 Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff It's not as obvious a fold as I thought it was before "crunching", but on balance, yes it's probably a fold - however a call probably isnt that big a mistake..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 11, 2008 Author Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Coolers / End Game / ICM / Stuff Cheers, for completeness and not that it influences what was the correct play. I called, he turned over AKo and I flopped a flush to win the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.