AJ Posted December 7, 2008 Share Posted December 7, 2008 What do you think would be the best long term win rate at these games. Let's assume it's Phil Ivey versus 9 guys who have never played before ? I'm picking not much higher than 75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 7, 2008 Share Posted December 7, 2008 Re: Cooler - possible wn rate Tell us more about the 9 guys - what's their understanding of coolers like? Are they typical Boss cooler players, or a bit better, maybe like Stars Double or Nothing players? :tongue2 Seriously though, it all depends on how badly the 9 play - if they play as badly as the typical micro stakes cooler player, then I reckon Phil Ivey would smash 75% (assuming he was well "motivated" to win).... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 8, 2008 Author Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: Cooler - possible wn rate They have zero understanding of Coolers, let's assume they are blind and have Cerebral Palsy. So from what I understand from you, your typical Boss players. Do you really think he could smash 75% ? Just what impact do you think bad beats / variance has ? Are they more likely against players that don't understand the concept of the game. Could he do 80% ? I guess what I'm asking is, if you played perfectly what could you win. I have an ITM of 61% on these just now, looking at my game, I figure if I cut out all my mistakes I wouldn't be that much over 70% Maybe there are more mistakes to find :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted December 8, 2008 Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: Cooler - possible wn rate Just looked at my table in the original Cooler thread and (only in 3€ games) I hit 80% in the money, albeit on only 15 games. Your scenario of a table full of donks...if they are aggressive donks then they would be knocking each other out at an extreme rate. So an ultra tight tactic would probably see you in the money without ever playing a hand. In fact...I just wonder how many games would end up like the play-money games, with half the players all-in on the first hand? So I reckon the in the money figure, in these circumstances, would be aiming at 90%+ quite comfortably. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 8, 2008 Author Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: Cooler - possible wn rate Not super super agressive. Let's reprahse the question with normal $5 - $20 players Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted December 8, 2008 Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: Cooler - possible wn rate One of the top poker players would be able to play more hands, and "small ball" I think - so the impact of variance and bad beats would be less..... Maybe "Smash" 75% was overexagerating it a bit, but I do think they could probably get to 75% or so.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted December 8, 2008 Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: Cooler - possible wn rate Phil Ivey, (or a similar standard of player), playing coolers live should be able to achieve 90%+ I would expect. Playing on-line where there's less reads available on may bring this down slightly. I don't have my spreadsheet to hand (it's on my laptop) but my rate is currently 78% on coolers over about 100 games. Statistically insignificant I accept, but I'd expect good players to comfortably beat it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted December 8, 2008 Share Posted December 8, 2008 Re: Cooler - possible wn rate I'd guess around 80% or maybe a bit less. I just don't think that the structure would give enough time for an expert's skills to make much more of a difference than that. Tell you what. If I win next year's WSOP Main Event, then I'll bet Phil $500,000 that he can't beat 80% over 500 €5 coolers. Then we might find out. I don't have my spreadsheet to hand (it's on my laptop) but my rate is currently 78% on coolers over about 100 games. That's extremely impressive! :ok Over 100 games, you'd typically expect your strike rate to vary around 5% from it's "true" value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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